Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As long as we're talking "prettymanders," here's a map CO Dems might have drawn had voters not passed redistricting reform: a safe 7D-1R plan that would eliminate Rep. Lauren Boebert's (R) seat (left). Instead, the commission drew a not-much-better-looking 4D-3R-1C plan (right). https://t.co/0gfYahe42s — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mattyglesias: Where I’m at with Covid is that reasonable people can disagree as to how much coercion should be used to save lives, but… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RyanP_Brown: Congressman Upton still undecided on whether to run again in 2022. If he did, he’d have to win a primary against another s… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: I broadly agree with this, though I'd add one additional twist on how to think about redistricting by seat: whether we're c… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: we're on track for more Biden-won seats (and more D-leaning seats, by @CookPolitical PVI) after redistricting than before. That's great news for Dems long-term. But the practical outcome of new maps is still likely to be a small GOP gain vs. *current* seat control. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, nine seats have moved the other way, from D-leaning to R-leaning. That's fewer than 15! But 8/9 are also currently held by Dems: #AZ06, #GA06, #MI08, #MI10, #NJ07, #NC02, #NC07, #OH09. That means Rs have twice as many pickup chances in "partisan makeover" seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nationally, across the 28 states w/ complete (or near-complete) maps, 15 seats have moved from R-leaning to D-leaning, by @CookPolitical PVI. But Dems already hold 11 of these 15 seats, meaning only four are pickup opportunities (#CA45, #IL13, #MI03, #NM02). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Virginia's new map is another good example. One R-leaning seat moves to D-leaning: #VA07, which helps Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). But one R-leaning seat gets redder: #VA02, held by Rep. Elaine Luria (D). Likeliest outcome: 6D-5R, a net Dem loss vs. current 7D-4R split. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is! However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11. Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use. As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: ⁦A world of existential uncertainty calls for humility and a willingness to revise one’s mental models in response to new i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot @max_vitek Yes, my mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new MI map features 5 Solid GOP and 4 Solid Dem seats. New @CookPolitical ratings for the four remaining seats: #MI04 Meijer (R) - Toss Up #MI07 Slotkin (D) - Toss Up #MI08 Kildee (D) - Toss Up #MI10 NEW SEAT - Likely R — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new VA map features 5 Solid Dem and 4 Solid GOP seats. New @CookPolitical ratings for the two remaining competitive seats: #VA02 Luria (D) - Toss Up #VA07 Spanberger (D) - Lean D — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: our ratings for new districts in Arizona, New Jersey and California, which became the 21st, 22nd and 23rd states to complete congressional redistricting in the past week. https://t.co/peKsPsNM42 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ok, any other states wanna drop big redistricting news today? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calculation, that new #VA07 is Biden +7. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) would be much safer in a primary than in the first special masters' proposal, but still somewhat vulnerable in November 2022 (though it's better for her than her current Biden +1 seat). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow, this is quite different from the special masters' first proposal. At first glance: - Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) gets a much more tenuous #VA07 - Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) gets a safe #VA10 - Rep. Elaine Luria (D) still very vulnerable in #VA02 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Reps. Andy Levin (D) & Dan Kildee (D) get more vulnerable, while Elissa Slotkin (D) remains vulnerable in Lansing and Rep. Peter Meijer (R) could still win a Biden +9 Grand Rapids seat. Bottom line: if 2022 is a great GOP year, this map could be 9R-4D (vs. 7D-7R now). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Michigan's independent commission votes to adopt "Chestnut" plan, which would've split 7-6 Biden in 2020, a slight improvement for Dems over the 8-6 Trump split on the current GOP-drawn map. https://t.co/iI4k1JjTCn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ColbyItkowitz @seungminkim The phrasing in the article still implies 59 is the national total, when I think you're just referring to the states that have completed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@seungminkim @ColbyItkowitz https://t.co/WyycbfOrDS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is incorrect. As it stands, Trump carried 130/435 districts by 15+ pts (this number will increase after redistricting, as will the number of solidly Biden seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on oral arguments so far, I'd be pretty surprised if the GOP-drawn congressional map is upheld by the Ohio Supreme Court. The part of the map likeliest to be found in violation: Hamilton Co. (Cincinnati), which is unnecessarily split three ways to dilute Dem votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot on the line here (perhaps control of 2-3 House seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: I think this piece is broadly right, but a lot of what looks like a huge surprise in redistricting comes from two separate m… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RossWeiner2 Lawyers who work for minority/voter advocacy groups, not political parties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, there are lots of extremely valid/viable claims against blatant GOP gerrymanders, either on racial or state constitutional grounds (NC, OH, AL come to mind). But some of those claims might best be argued by voting rights lawyers who aren’t explicitly partisan. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, both *Dem* commissioners voted to approve the 5-4 Biden map in Arizona your org just filed a hopeless lawsuit against. Did they engage in “egregious conduct?” Lol this is getting out of hand. — PolitiTweet.org