Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @reidepstein: NEW: Liz Cheney, facing a rebellion at home for her defiance of Trump, has made herself scarce. Few in-person meetings in… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

KS Senate Republicans have succeeded in overriding Gov. Laura Kelly's (D) veto of their congressional map. Next, on to the state House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: A behind-the-scenes look at Rs attempts to diversify the GOP (including a yearslong effort to land John James by CLF/… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @aseitzwald: Outgoing Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper lets it rip in this exit interview: "We’re addicted to telling other people what to thi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The House GOP's 2023 orientation is likelier to be determined by primaries like #SC01 Rep. Nancy Mace's (R) than the handful involving Rs who voted for impeachment (including Liz Cheney). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It was only a decade ago that the Obama DOJ granted Section 5 preclearance to a 6R-1D AL map that packed Black voters into #AL07. But there's no more straightforward Section 2 claim: Black voters are sufficiently large/cohesive/compact, and high racially polarized voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I suppose it could take the view that existing 50%+ maj-min seats (like #AL07) mustn't be retrogressed but there's no right to new ones - but that would effectively lock in nonwhite underrepresentation regardless of changing electoral/demographic realities. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the Supreme Court finds a second Black majority district in AL doesn't satisfy the "Gingles Test" in a Section 2 VRA claim, even though it would be just as compact as the current AL map, it's difficult to see what standards it would set for maj-min seats at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Silver lining on an otherwise dark day for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The SCOTUS decision in Alabama can't be considered a surprise given the makeup of the court, but it wasn't a foregone conclu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: 🚨🚨 BREAKING: SCOTUS in a 5-4 decision halts the redrawing of Alabama’s congressional map and agrees to hear the cases. Roberts a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The SCOTUS stay is obviously a huge win for Republicans and a blow to a coalition of Dems/civil rights groups seeking an additional Black opportunity seat in AL (and LA/SC). The 6R-1D GOP map will stand for 2022, and possibly longer. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mjs_DC: BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote, with Roberts joining the liberals in dissent, the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that require… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The KS Senate's vote to override Gov. Laura Kelly's (D) veto of the congressional map is being held open an awfully long time... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

All signs are that if NC Rs punt drawing a remedial map to the NC Supreme Court this month, Republicans could win a majority on the court in November and pass a new gerrymander in 2023 - possibly reversing most of Dems' national '22 redistricting gains. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, this essay by NYU Law Prof. Rick Pildes from last April is one of the best distillations of the real-world consequences of fewer competitive seats. "We are going to end up with a 'fair' House that is even more dysfunctional," he warns me. https://t.co/B0G6Sjei8q — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks very likely the PA Supreme Court will overrule this. Mystery is what map they'll replace it with. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done. So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BowTiePolitics: This…could make #ncredistricting very interesting (as if it wasn’t already): #ncpol — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting update: new lines have now been adopted in 301/435 House districts. Biden won 173 of these 301 new seats, up from 167/301 under the current lines. Biggest shifts so far: IL: Biden +2, Trump -3 MI: Biden +1, Trump -2 NY: Biden +2, Trump -3 TX: Biden -1, Trump +3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tennessee becomes the 30th state to adopt a new congressional map (that hasn’t subsequently been struck down), and it’s a brutal 8R-1D gerrymander. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good point. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@karltwo2 @reidepstein I wanted to help, and offered to share our district-by-district numbers, which we've worked decently hard to compile. He flat out refused, which seemed poor, especially for the NYT. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I contacted the writer, @reidepstein, about the inaccuracies, and he admitted he didn't have independent access to the district-level data. But he refused to revisit/correct. 🤷 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This NYT story features inaccurate data that actually understates the competitive decline. There are only 17 seats that voted for Biden/Trump by less than 5 pts in the 29 states w/ new district lines, down from 39 right now (a 56% decline). https://t.co/SEtMu1qqhE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's little doubt that if the NY reform's anti-gerrymandering language were enforced as the OH reform's language has been, NY's Dem gerrymander would be struck down too. The only real difference in the outlook: the timeline & makeup of state courts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There aren't many breaks Dems *haven't* caught in redistricting so far. Sure, you can point to commission maps in AZ/IA/MT, or that MD Dems didn't pursue the 8D-0R gerrymander Steny Hoyer wanted. But the big questions (CA, NJ, MI, OH, AL, NY, NC) have gone their way. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What might a "partisan fairness" map look like in NC? Perhaps 7-7 Trump/Biden, w/ four competitive districts (3 narrow Biden, 1 narrow Trump). But it takes some splitting of cities and conscious pro-Dem choices to get there. This is going to get interesting. https://t.co/bMCL3sEHwN — PolitiTweet.org