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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CookPolitical: As of now, the possibility of Democrats turning their poor midterm prospects around is not promising. New @amyewalter co… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
But the most dramatic shift? A decimation of competitive seats. On the current trajectory, only 33/435 seats will have voted for Trump/Biden by 5 pts or less, down from 51/435 seats today (-35%). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
However, because so many of the new Biden-won seats are so marginal and so many marginal Trump seats got *a lot* redder, the @CookPolitical scorecard shows Rs are actually on track to net ~2 seats from new maps alone. Overall, pretty close to a wash. https://t.co/kk9Bwpx8Hv https://t.co/TbZ3XmlPHr — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Redistricting update: by my math, if the final states shake out how we expect, 227/435 House seats will have voted for Biden under new lines, up from 224/435 today. And, 212 House seats would be more pro-Biden than the nation as a whole, up from 207 today. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If NY courts adopt the special master's map, @CookPolitical would score it as a loss of one GOP seat vs. the current map. That's about half a seat better for Ds than what I expected from a court map, but three seats worse for Ds than the previously enacted gerrymander. https://t.co/2IDWsOdN2H — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If you estimate this out, it points to a final margin of <1k votes either way. Perhaps Oz slightly more likely to finish ahead. But also maybe ten times closer than the 0.5% automatic recount threshold. #PASEN — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
PA update: Oz leads McCormick by 1,241 votes (0.1%). It is inevitable that this will land in mandatory recount terr… https://t.co/t5O6YrKF8u
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CookPolitical: New maps and House race ratings are now live for Kansas and Missouri. Read @Redistrict's latest: https://t.co/8putcynGoN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
NY's GOP plaintiffs are out with a recommended map (left) that would convert #NY10 into a red-leaning South Brooklyn seat and give Rs a great shot at 11/26 seats. Just goes to show that as much as Dems gripe about the special master plan (right), there are much worse scenarios. https://t.co/3A5CBXBVXf — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @PoliticsReid: Bizarre fact about OR 05, where Rep. Kurt Schrader is trailing his progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner: All 5 peo… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
And...now GOP-drawn gerrymanders have been upheld/enacted in KS and MO, though Dems did get a court win on one FL district (we'll see on appeal). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Since February, pretty much everything that could go wrong for Democrats in redistricting has gone wrong.* *except KS and MO
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@leepers500 @CookPolitical *In — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
*In — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Gov. Mike Parson (R) signs Missouri's next congressional map into law, locking in the current 6R-2D breakdown after a lengthy GOP stalemate. Only three states left to finalize plans: FL, NH and NY. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Adkison @madkisonews
NOW: @GovParsonMO signs HB2909, establishing new congressional districts in Missouri. Gov. Parson says he’s talked… https://t.co/izzGSvpkOr
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Progressives are on the verge of two huge victories: Summer Lee (D) in the open Pittsburgh #PA12 and Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) against Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in #OR05. It would take a miracle for either of their opponents to come back now. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I’m a big win for Republicans, KS Supreme Court upholds the GOP legislature’s congressional map. That endangers #KS03 Rep. Sharice Davids (D), whose race starts out in Toss Up at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Shorman @jonshorman
BREAKING: Kansas Supreme Court upholds GOP-drawn congressional map, in majority opinion written by Justice Caleb Stegall #ksleg
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In #OR05, I'd estimate Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) would need to win about 63% of outstanding votes to overtake Jamie McLeod-Skinner's (D) lead. But right now Schrader's only winning ~56% in the outstanding counties. McLeod-Skinner the heavy favorite now. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
That the sitting DCCC chair is willing to risk a primary against his own Dem neighbor to run in a Biden +10 seat - rather than run in a Biden +5 seat where most of his current constituents live - says everything you need to know about the political environment right now. — PolitiTweet.org
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
@RepSeanMaloney @MondaireJones We will see how this all shakes out — new map will be finalized Friday. But the id… https://t.co/8J6U9UdvtT
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @SteveKornacki: Update on PA: Oz now leads McCormick by 2,564 votes (0.2%). It appears the biggest source of remaining *election day* vo… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It likely won't be possible to call #OR05 tonight, given a Clackamas Co. ballot counting slowdown. But, progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) is on the verge on ousting Rep. Kurt Schrader (D). If it holds, @CookPolitical will be shifting #OR05 from Lean D to Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We're not going to find out the outcome of the #PASEN GOP primary tonight. Absent a Barnette win, that's probably the best news John Fetterman (D) could ask for. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Two Trump-skeptic House incumbents, #ID02 Rep. Mike Simpson (R) and #PA01 Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), are easily dispatching more "MAGA" opponents in GOP primaries that largely escaped Trump's radar. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Two Trump-skeptic House incumbents, #ID02 Rep. Mike Simpson (R) and #PA01 Brian Fitzpatrick (R), are easily dispatching more "MAGA" opponents in GOP primaries that largely escaped Trump's radar. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: with a big EDay batch from Bucks Co., Mehmet Oz (R) takes the lead over Dave McCormick (R) by 0.06% statewide. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In #PA12, progressive state Rep. Summer Lee (D) has taken the lead over moderate Steve Irwin (D) 41.7%-41.2% with just about every precinct reporting. But it's unclear what other ballots could be left to count. Still too close to call, but looking good for Lee. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough. Gov. Brad Little (R) defeats Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin (R) in the #IDGOV GOP primary. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Final unofficial #NC11 GOP primary results: Chuck Edwards (R) 29,411 (33.4%) Madison Cawthorn (R) 28,092 (31.9%) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In #OR05, progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) carrying Deschutes Co. (Bend) 70%-30% over Rep. Kurt Schrader (D). Looking very grim for the incumbent Blue Dog. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough. State Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) wins the Dem primary for the new #OR06, defeating crypto-backed Carrick Flynn (D). Salinas would be the first Latina elected to Congress from Oregon. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely D. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
PA's automatic recount threshold is 0.5%. Right now, Dave McCormick's (R) lead over Mehmet Oz (R) is 0.1%, and it appears the lead might flip in the next few minutes. #PASEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We've got a small first batch of results from Multnomah Co. (Portland), and Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) is trailing progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) 57%-43%. Long way to go in #OR05 but good sign for the challenger. — PolitiTweet.org
