Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A 2020 election in which Biden’s margin in the “tipping point” state matches his national margin is possible, I suppose. But my guess is the final 2020 map is likely to be shaped much more by Trump - whatever his standing - than the D nominee. And that points to a Trump EC edge. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the end of the day, I can understand concerns about implying lots of precision where it doesn’t exist & when there are still so many unknowns. But I also get the case for why the Q poll in Ohio is probably an outlier & paints Dems an overly cornflower-y portrait. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BUT polls also show Biden performing well vs. Trump in diversifying states Obama never won, like TX and GA. Yes, Biden has more potential to "roll back the clock" than other Dems, but the final alignment of states - win or lose - is much likelier to look like '16 than '12 or '08. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the moment, I still think Biden retains some important advantages in the primary. And, the balance of polling atm shows him performing really well vs. Trump in the white-working class states where Trump broke through... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) Biden has endured a divisive primary (possibly a contested convention?) w/ many on the left displeased 2) Trump has had the chance to weaponize social media to rewrite Biden's biography & attack his baggage from the right *and left* (2/2) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) Biden has endured a divisive primary (possibly a contested convention?) w/ many on the left displeased 2) Trump has had the chance to weaponize social media to rewrite Biden's biography & attack his baggage from the right *and left* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Setting aside the great Nate debate, my main critique of polls showing Biden clobbering Trump in OH/wherever is that they likely don't offer an accurate portrayal of what that matchup *could* look like next Oct., after: (1/2) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The chances the entire 2020 election could come down to a very slow ballot count in Arizona are real. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pennsylvania is a bit of a bright spot for Dems in this regard: over the past four years of Census estimates, it's the only state in the nation that added more millennial college grads (+85k) than total 18+ residents (+83k). Then again, Trump would've won without PA in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pennsylvania is a bit of a bright spot for Dems in this regard: over the past four years of Census estimates, it's the only state in the nation that added more millennial college grads (+85k) than total voting age residents (+83k). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, the six states critical to deciding the Electoral College in 2020 (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) have accounted for 25% of the nation's net voting age population increase, but just 21% of the nation's net increase in millennial college grads. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Data: over the past four years of Census estimates, the 20 blue states + DC have accounted for 39% of the nation's net voting age population increase, but 52% of the nation's net increase in millennial (18-34) college grads. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's left that *does* matter? Metros like Phoenix, Tucson, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta (maybe), Detroit, Omaha, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Madison. But in some of these, millennial growth has been lukewarm compared to the 12 above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's left that does matter? Metros like Phoenix, Tucson, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta (maybe), Detroit, Omaha, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Madison. But in some of these, millennial growth has been lukewarm compared to the 12 above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Think about a dozen of the hottest destinations for young, left-leaning college grads this decade: Austin Boston Chicago Dallas DC Denver LA Nashville NYC Portland SF Seattle Then consider: none of their votes will matter to the outcome of the 2020 presidential race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The more I look at this, the more I'd tweak. From red to blue, here's how I might rearrange the non-solid turf: OH, ME02, IA, TX, GA, FL, NC, NE02, AZ, WI (tipping point), MI, PA, NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Took Mitchell two expensive runs to get to Congress & 1.25 terms to become disillusioned enough to leave. R+13 district, @CookPolitical will keep in Solid R. https://t.co/rRCj9NIR2a — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Like, there might be a pretty big market in the 2020 Dem primary electorate for a young, progressive female veteran of color w̶h̶o̶ ̶s̶y̶m̶p̶a̶t̶h̶i̶z̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶A̶s̶s̶a̶d̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶c̶e̶ ̶v̶o̶c̶i̶f̶e̶r̶o̶u̶s̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶p̶p̶o̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶L̶G̶B̶T̶Q̶ ̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶s̶.̶ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s kinda interesting to think about where Gabbard might be in the race, given the strengths of her bio, if only she weren’t such a pariah in the Dem caucus/on foreign policy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Absolutely — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And AZ for that matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d put NC closer to the center than FL, but pretty much. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Change We Can Believe In | Make America Great Again FL+IA+MI+OH+PA+WI > Electoral margin [Cap & trade | ACA repeal] fails Embarrassing [MA | AL] Sen special Signs [ACA | TCJA] into law Loses House, holds Senate Ties “elitist” opponent to [Tea Party | Squad] Reelected | ?? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Northampton Co., which includes Bethlehem, voted for Trump in ‘16 after twice voting for Obama (and every Dem since ‘92). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A small caveat: reevaluating voter attitudes after reading them various messages/attacks can greatly inform a campaign’s strategy. But publicly released “informed ballot” results have little to no predictive value. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, a cardinal rule of polling analysis: “informed ballots” (i.e. re-asking voters’ preferences after reading a series of statements) are almost always BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, a cardinal rule of polling analysis: “informed ballots” (i.e. re-asking voters’ preferences after reading a series of statements are almost always BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not a great sign for Dems in #NC09 tbh. McCready has superior name ID from the ‘18 race and the lack of a lead in a Dem poll not good news for him in an R+8 district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: This book is fabulous https://t.co/Pz8YIbCRqD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: This is pretty sweet. https://t.co/37SydzhaLj — PolitiTweet.org