Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few Sunday #quarantunes w/ my talented friend Heather (all the way in Brighton, UK) on keys: The Hour Before the Dawn The Silver Spire Tommy's Tarbukas (don't worry, it'll eventually pick up the pace...) #transatlanticjamsession https://t.co/LtcGNdkqz2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear: there’s no way in hell this gaffe is shifting votes of African-Americans from Biden to Trump. The question is whether disillusionment w/ Biden, reinforced by negative digital ads, causes young non-white voters to *not vote,* a la 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not talking about one gaffe producing some seismic shift in the black vote. Black voters are going to reject Trump by a massive margin. But Biden winning 91%-7% w/ 60% turnout vs. 88%-10% w/ 55% turnout could be the difference in these key states. It was the margin in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words: will “you ain’t black” be forgotten by the news cycle in a few days? Of course it will be. Should Dems be concerned about the Trump camp’s potential to weaponize it in targeted digital ads this fall? Absolutely. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump has next to no appeal or credibility w/ this demographic. But his campaign’s goal will be to drive down Biden’s appeal w/ young black voters (1994 crime bill, Anita Hill, busing, etc.) to blur distinctions & depress turnout, as in 2016. It can work, and margins matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden's base in the primaries was older African-Americans, who will vote for him overwhelmingly. The challenge for Biden remains younger black voters (esp. male) who liked/voted for Obama, didn't vote in 2016 and don't identify w/ either political party. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ordinarily, it's easy to dismiss Biden's gaffes b/c they're priced into voters' expectations. But this one might be different: black voters are the margin in 5 of the 6 most critical Electoral prizes (FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) and Biden just handed Trump a new three-word fall meme. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: our deep dive into Democrats’ 10 open House seats is now available for @CookPolitical subscribers. Find out why the nation’s wildest race might actually be taking place in the nation’s bluest district. https://t.co/eDAGXFFPTA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: our deep dive into Democrats’ 10 open House seats is now available for@CookPolitical subscribers. Find out why the nation’s wildest race might actually be taking place in the nation’s bluest district. https://t.co/eDAGXFFPTA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: our deep dive into Democrat’s’ 10 open House seats is now available for@CookPolitical subscribers. Find out why the nation’s wildest race might actually be taking place in the nation’s bluest district. https://t.co/eDAGXFFPTA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reality check: president is attacking MI’s SoS for doing something that... 1) isn’t actually happening (they’re mailing applications, not ballots - as plenty of GOP-controlled states are doing) 2) quite possibly would *aid* his prospects by turning out more low-education whites — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: One of the odd things about the Trump effort to suppress absentee mail voting is that it's totally conceivable to me that hi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@TorunnSinclair “As expected” meaning what we might have expected yesterday, not before the election. No doubt an incredibly impressive win as my @CookPolitical piece makes clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, looks like the final #CA25 margin will be in the single digits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Christy Smith (D) has seen enough in #CA25, conceding to Mike Garcia (R). Republicans pick up their first seat in CA since 1998. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How did #CA25 vote so differently after Katie Hill (D) won it by 9% in ‘18? 1) Garcia a fighter pilot w/ no voting record (unlike Knight, who voted to repeal ACA) 2) Dem “surge” voters...declined 3) Anti-Trump voters who liked Garcia could elect him *and* keep Ds in majority — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RachelBitecofer @DemFromCT Or maybe some people have a hard time grasping that it was both in 2018: Dems had a robust turnout AND many Trump disapprovers who previously voted for Rs voted D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Some people asked: “How do you know every registered R is voting for Garcia?” Well as it turns out, Garcia not only likely won a higher share of Rs than Smith won of Ds, he likely won a higher share of “no party preference” voters as well. #CA25 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Coming tomorrow: “The Mike Garcia Congressional Race was down 20% before my COMPLETE and TOTAL endorsement. But thanks to my brilliant order to open beautiful last-minute VOTING BOOTHS (Democrat #FakeNews didn’t want!), Crazy Nancy is crying!!” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Anyone else feel like this is the millionth time you’ve seen the same results map of NW WI? #WI07 https://t.co/RWRD8QK9YN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m watching you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans are poised to pick up their first House seat in California since *1998.* But it could be short lived: higher turnout could help Dems win it back in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A key to Mike Garcia (R)'s probable win tonight: #CA25's high-propensity voters are longtime residents who skew older, white and R. #CA25's low-propensity voters are newcomers priced out of LA who skew younger, non-white and D. They showed up in '16/'18, but less so this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Mike Garcia (R)'s lead over Christy Smith (D) in #CA25 holds, and chances look pretty good it will, he'll become the only House Republican from a district Hillary Clinton won with more than 50% of the vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, Smith (D) is only losing LA County by 5% less than she's losing Ventura. As @baseballot noted, Katie Hill (D)'s 2018 margin was 12% better in LA than Ventura. My hypothesis: high-income Ds in Ventura mailed '20 ballots back at higher rate than low-income Ds in LA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be imprudent to call the race w/o knowing how many ballots are left to count, but the odds of Garcia (R) ultimately winning #CA25 seem pretty high to me right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Garcia (R) up 11% (about 16k votes) w/ 139k votes reporting. This is going to be very tough for Smith (D) to overcome. #CA25 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd be pretty surprised if the final #CA25 result isn't within 5% either way. But also I'd be surprised if Mike Garcia (R)'s initial lead is less than 5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Biden ends up winning #NE02 by 11% (as the new DCCC internal poll claims), he'd be winning the national popular vote by double digits & winning an Electoral landslide. Anything can happen, but I don't see a 10%+ margin in either direction as the most realistic outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It was never a competitive race. But Tricia Zunker (D) is on track to come within 12-15% of Tom Tiffany (R) in #WI07, which voted for Trump by 20%. Not a bad showing for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org