Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: in honor of today's Kentucky primary, "Belle of Lexington" https://t.co/73W58pYlyZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Augustus709 I stand by the take (you might want to read the full thread) and will continue to write campaign analysis. Thanks for reading. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Make no mistake: Trump is in dreadful shape & Biden is the clear favorite right now. But the race is still closer than most people might assume looking at the national polls. And I won't apologize for continuing to point that out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big part of this could be that state polls are still sparse and haven't fully caught up w/ the recent expansion in Biden's national lead. But even before the primaries, there were reasons to believe the pro-Trump electoral bias has increased since 2016. https://t.co/IR6Ovxhwdu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, Trump did 2.9% better in the tipping point state (Wisconsin, +0.8%) than he did in the popular vote (-2.1%). Right now, Biden is ahead by 9% in the @RealClearNews national average, but by 4-6% in the four likeliest tipping point states (AZ, FL, PA, WI) - a larger gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the same time, people should appreciate there's not a huge distance between a Biden electoral landslide (where we are today) and a narrow Trump electoral win. If Biden were to ultimately win the popular vote 51%-47%, I wouldn't be able to guarantee he'd win the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nothing drives home why the Trump/Pence ticket is badly behind & out of step w/ public opinion quite like tonight's rally and this answer: https://t.co/Aps06HvEWt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The current AL map was drawn *before* VRA Section 5 was gutted. But even afterwards, groups have successfully sued against similar over-packing in VA, FL & NC among others. Will the same standard ever be applied in the Deep South? This is a central question for 2021 & beyond. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example: 27% of AL's population is black. But right now, black voters are packed into just one of AL's 7 districts (#AL07 on left). Even though AL is losing a seat in 2022, it would still be fairly easy to draw two black opportunity districts (purple and green on right). https://t.co/EUifOsKuby — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An aspect of the national conversation on racial inequality that deserves more attention: representation. African-Americans in the Deep South have long been underrepresented in Congress, even though it's possible to draw more opportunity districts in AL, GA, LA, SC, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're not weighting by education, you're not doing it right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Brian_Chovanec @KimMangone @ishabad It's a good question. The answer is that @CookPolitical PVI takes into account the past two presidential cycles. #UT04 voted for Romney by 37% in 2012 but for Trump by just 7% in 2016, a violent anti-Trump trend. #CA23 voted by 25% for Romney and 22% for Trump - still solid R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Brian_Chovanec @KimMangone @ishabad The reason I deleted it was that it was a jerky tweet. But if we had a column even safer than “Solid Republican,” #CA23 would be in it. This is an unwinnable race for any Democrat and I’d bet my career on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: next Tuesday's primaries could be a breakthrough for black candidates. https://t.co/i8JlcOolYm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: New Electoral College Ratings: IA: Likely R to Lean R MI: Toss Up to Lean D OH: Likely R to Lean R Read @amyewalter's f… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@FutureBoy When it comes to this race, we do have a crystal ball: if we had a category even safer than "Solid Republican," #CA23 would be in it. But I'm sure she'll raise more $$ than plenty of Dem candidates who actually have a chance, by virtue of who she's running against. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A serious question for @henryolsenEPPC: are the views Greene has expressed materially that different from various things the president has said in the last few years? #GA14 https://t.co/orNnOAOcx3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remarkably, Trump's been polling marginally ahead of where he was among non-whites in '16. But no way for him to turn this race around without getting closer to his '16 numbers among whites, esp. white seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I don't think primary turnout/composition tells us much about which way Georgia (or any state for that matter) is headed in the fall. But it does tell us something about the pace at which #GA07 and other ATL suburbs are moving relative to the state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Between 2018 and 2020, GA primary votes cast went up 79% and composition went from 48% D to 54% D, owing mostly to the D presidential primary. But in increasingly diverse, Gwinnett Co.-based #GA07, primary votes cast went up 98% and composition went from 43% D to 57% D. Wow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: SCOTUS rulings on DACA and gay rights are basically in line with about 70-75% of the population. https://t.co/M8jSbHxycY h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: 🚨 Big ratings change this morning at @CookPolitical: #MTSen moves to Toss Up https://t.co/Wbdfr03r8V — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So the leading GOP challenger to #ME02 Rep. Jared Golden (D) is at a 10-to-1 cash disadvantage but he does have a...flamethrower? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Amy_Siskind @KimMangone You must be thinking of someone else. Leaving this here from 2017. https://t.co/QdR7VLRNrn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AdamParkhomenko If we had a category even safer than "Solid Republican," #CA23 would be in it. However, she'll no doubt raise more $$ than plenty of Dems who actually have a chance, by virtue of who she's running against. Have said the same of male Rs (like Omar Navarro in #CA43) in the past. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@KimMangone If you win in November, I will quit political analysis forever and never tweet again for the rest of my life. Thankfully for me, there is no chance of this happening. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Frankly, at face value, the messages in this video compilation of her comments are not a bad fit for the GOP primary electorate in #GA14. https://t.co/Qv1NVQQuVK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This district voted for Trump 75%-22% in 2016. If the #GA14 GOP runoff becomes a referendum on these comments, far from clear that will hurt Greene. And unlike King, GOP leadership can't kick her off committees/attack her ineffectiveness...b/c she's not in Congress yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point I'd consider it a pretty big surprise if Rep. Eliot Engel (D) hangs on against Jamaal Bowman (D) in #NY16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meet the next Steve King? Greene remains a strong favorite to win #GA14. — PolitiTweet.org