Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PeterHamby KS voted for Trump by 20.4% in 2016 and AZ by 3.5% so I’d pretty much bet my life this won’t happen — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This kind of attack isn't resonating w/ voters for the same reason Dems making fun of Trump's bad spelling doesn't resonate. Voters don't want their politicians to be perfectly pre-programmed robots and these kind of flaws are priced into their expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, Biden's not losing Latinos, just winning them by ~31% vs. Clinton's ~40% margin. But: 1) Trump's made up some ground among FL Cubans since 2016, when wounds w/ Rubio were still raw 2) Top issue for Latino voters is economy, where Trump's numbers are still strongest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the most fascinating battleground state right now is Florida, where there's strong evidence Trump has marginally improved among Latinos since '16 but Biden might be reaping the largest benefit from his overperformance w/ seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Main takeaway: Biden's big lead is mostly attributable to a huge anti-Trump shift in college+ whites since 2016. Biden actually doing slightly worse w/ non-whites than Clinton did in 2016, especially w/ Latino voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins ('16 CCES): Non-college whites: +21 (+24) Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9) African-Americans: -78 (-80) Latinos: -31 (-40) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Electoral College rating changes at @CookPolitical: GA: Lean R to Toss Up #ME02: Likely R to Lean R #NE02: Toss Up to Lean D PA: Toss Up to Lean D WI: Toss Up to Lean D This puts Biden over the 270 EV threshold, to 279. Analysis from @amyewalter: https://t.co/pH60fQcMv2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Very preliminary vote totals from Ocean & Camden seem to back this up in #NJ02. This would be former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D)'s wife facing off against party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NJ03 primary to face Rep. Andy Kim (D), construction executive David Richter (R) takes a big lead w/ Ocean Co. votes. Can Kate Gibbs (R) make it up in her home base of Burlington Co.? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered ground w/ Latinos in FL since 2016, hence R wins there in 2018. And overall, demog change is still only a small component of Trump's weaker standing relative to 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's 2016 margin by more than half, from 3.5% to 1.6%. In GA, demographic change alone might cut Trump's 2016 margin from 5.1% to 3.5%. In NC, from 3.7% to 2.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip: Florida (29 EVs) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) ...based on demographic change alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including: AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%) FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%) TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When even Lindsey Graham starts repudiating Trump, you know it’s...oh wait, he just made it through his primary and was willing to say anything to survive all along b/c he doesn’t have a life outside of being a senator. This isn’t hard, folks. https://t.co/4d61krh5ST — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What should really frighten down-ballot Rs: Trump is trailing Biden by 7-9% more than he lost the popular vote in 2016, but because there are so many urban cores where Trump had little room to fall in the first place, the drop is likely even larger in swing suburban districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: .@Redistrict writes: “What Trump's campaign might not grasp is that in the modern polarized era of American elections, T… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@randOmuos nice try but no. https://t.co/3Lt9PsPcu6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, the Clinton campaign badly misread the Electoral map. This time, it's the Trump campaign that might be wasting millions on states that aren't relevant to who wins. https://t.co/nOKnORulLY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Susan Rice just made a pretty decent case for her VP selection on @MeetThePress w/ @mitchellreports. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NilesGApol It was @CharlieCookDC, who first used those classifications in his first report in 1984, to the best of my knowledge. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: Rep. Scott Tipton (R)'s primary defeat moves #CO03 from Solid R to Likely R. https://t.co/szeYTpc1I4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For reference, this 48% figure exceeds the attrition rate of Democrats at this point in Obama's first term - 112/256 (44%) - and note that 2012 being a redistricting year contributed to plenty of Dem retirements/losses. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: most of the Rs likeliest to speak out *against* Trump were replaced by Democrats, and most others - like Tipton in #CO03 - are being replaced by even more pro-Trump Rs. Lesson: there is no going back to a GOP “before Trump.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm so sorry to have to break this disappointing news, but this candidate ended up with only 1.3% of the vote. #OK05 https://t.co/PiIjT8yFcj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: If the President meets with her and learns more about her, there's a non-zero chances she speaks at the Republican con… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House. Since then, 115 (48%) have either retired, resigned, been defeated or are retiring in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: retired NFL player Burgess Owens (R) wins the GOP primary to face #UT04 Rep. Ben McAdams (D). November @CookPolitical rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why doesn't Boebert's nomination move the needle further in Dems' direction? Don't underestimate the disdain most #CO03 residents have for wealthy, liberal ski towns like Aspen & Steamboat Springs, which nominee Diane Mitsch Bush (D) represented in the state House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tight right now, but to me it looks likely the Medicaid expansion ballot measure will narrowly pass in Oklahoma. — PolitiTweet.org