Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2021

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Tue Jul 07 21:15:40 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's 2016 margin by more than half, from 3.5% to 1.6%. In GA, demographic change alone might cut Trump's 2016 margin from 5.1% to 3.5%. In NC, from 3.7% to 2.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip: Florida (29 EVs) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) ...based on demographic change alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered ground w/ Latinos in FL since 2016, hence R wins there in 2018. And overall, demog change is still only a small component of Trump's weaker standing relative to 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 7, 2020 Hibernated