Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now a few caveats: 1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though #NY27 came close 2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states 3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine a hypothetical swing state where 42% of the vote is cast by mail and there's an extreme partisan gap between VBM (80% Biden) and in-person (70% Trump). Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit @alflinn): https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS https://t.co/0TUj7xy1Ni — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The rejection rates for VBM in 2020 primaries have been many times higher than OR/WA/CO b/c of 1) ill-equipped and understaffed election offices struggling with floods of requests for mail ballots and 2) voters inexperienced w/ casting them. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"The [VBM] rejection rates we've seen in the primaries have almost uniformly been above historic ranges," per Dem election super-lawyer @marceelias. "I take Republicans at face value, that they don't want people to vote by mail." https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"If I were advising someone at lower health risk, I would say think about early in person voting," per Stewart of MIT, who estimates the true rate of uncounted mail ballot in 2016 was around 4%. "But go early in the process and don't wait until the last minute." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More @cstewartiii (director of MIT's Election Data & Science Lab): "If I were advising someone at lower health risk, I would say think about early in person voting. But go early in the process and don't wait until the last minute." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"Voting by mail is twice as involved administratively than voting in person," per @cstewartiii. "If problems arise in mail voting, it's twice as hard to correct them than in person. And first-time voters are more likely to have their ballots rejected." https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nedfoley: 1) Congress sets date for presidential & congressional elections; 2) 20th Amendment to U.S. Constitution requires current ter… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, Biden's leads nationally & in core battlegrounds are robust enough to withstand unusually high mail ballot rejection rates. But the race could still tighten. And in the past 20 years... 7 Electoral College 12 Senate 71 House ...races have been decided by <2%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The perfect catastrophe Dems are worried about: 1) record-smashing demand for mail ballots 2) unprecedented polarization of mail (D) vs. Election Day (R) votes 3) overwhelmed & understaffed election offices 4) absentee voter inexperience/error 5) counting delays/legal chaos — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

[new article] Trump's attacks on mail voting could depress his base. But he could also be setting a trap that could cost Democrats up to 2 points. 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Trump suggesting delaying the election (he can't do this w/o congressional approval) seems to be one of his more obvious attem… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, Lenawee Co., MI (served by the Toledo market) cast 43,180 major party votes in 2016. Trump won MI by 10,704. Mercer Co., PA (served by the Youngstown market) cast 50,277 major party votes in 2016. Trump won PA by 44,292. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, Lenawee Co., MI (served by the Toledo market) cast 43,180 major party votes in 2016. Trump won MI by 10,704. Mercer Co., PA (served by the Youngstown market) cast 50,277 major party votes in 2016. Trump won PA by 44,292 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Internal polling showing #GA14 GOP runoff competitive... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Sure. It's the OH buy I'd make first if I were them. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It's also not like the Biden camp is making big buys in Columbus, Cincinnati or Cleveland right now. You might be surprised by how often we see House/Sen campaigns make expensive buys to reach just one or two small counties, though I rarely think its a good ROI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Toledo and Youngstown are also the two Ohio media markets that cover counties in Michigan and Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty much all the evidence suggests these kinds of coded appeals actually backfire the most with, you guessed it, suburban whites. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jmartNYT: Read ⁦@brianmrosenthal⁩ ⁦@PatriciaMazzei⁩ on ⁦@RepValDemings⁩ > https://t.co/b9I6IgQcPI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Concerns about "shy Trump voters"—which don't have a lot of support in the evidence—stem from the same place as the impu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JakeSherman: 🚨🚨 Rep. LOUIE GOHMERT has covid. Tested positive this morning. Has NOT been wearing a mask on the Hill, and defended tg… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Five weeks later, it appears Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) has defeated Suraj Patel (D) by ~3,700 votes in the #NY12 primary. But 12k+ absentees out of 65k+ cast were invalidated (mostly for being late/lacking postmark) and I still don't see new results posted by an official source. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Trump campaign off the air in Michigan is a telling indication of where the race is at now https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @marceelias: 🚨🚨Voter registration rates in April and May of 2020 have plummeted in relation to the rates in the same months in 2016. Dec… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRubinBlogger I'm not so sure about that. Will have more on this in an article later this week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@StuPolitics Pretty common and widely accepted term, if you ask anyone from the Dakotas https://t.co/U4EFYZo243 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One crosstab in the Colby poll I'm having a hard time getting my head around: Gideon leading women 47-45 and trailing men 41-43, but up 44-39 overall. #MESEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm actually not so sure this is a massive setback for Republicans. Will have more on this in an article later this week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticsReid: One of the leading candidates running for DNI chief John Ratcliffe’s old open seat in Congress was killed Saturday when h… — PolitiTweet.org