Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, Rep. Lacy Clay (D)'s lead in St. Louis's #MO01 has narrowed to 50%-43% over progressive Cori Bush (D) with a lot of the vote still out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Watkins becomes the sixth House incumbent (and the fourth Republican) to lose renomination in 2020. His loss will move #KS02 from Lean R back to Likely R at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Missouri Medicaid expansion amendment at the moment: Yes: 340,292 (51%) No: 325,502 (49%) With plenty of rural/suburban/urban areas left to count, it's a coin flip. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"Yes" on Medicaid expansion is running 5-7% ahead of Claire McCaskill (D)'s 2018 numbers in an awful lot of rural counties. McCaskill lost statewide 51%-46%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Missouri's Medicaid expansion constitutional amendment is shaping up to be every bit the nailbiter Oklahoma's was. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Steve Watkins, who was just charged with voter fraud, has been defeated in the #KS02 GOP primary by Jake LaTurner (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Roger Marshall (R) defeats Kris Kobach (R) in the #KSSEN GOP primary. Democrats had been banking on Kobach's nomination after he blew the 2018 #KSGOV race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dade Co., MO: 75%-21% Hawley (R) in 2018, 76%-24% No on Medicaid expansion. Decent result for No. Still long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Madrid Co., MO votes 66%-34% no on Medicaid expansion. It voted 69%-29% for Hawley (R) in 2018. More evidence pointing towards a close fight statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We have what might be our first full county in Missouri A2? Atchison Co. votes 66-34% No. It voted 73-24% for Hawley in 2018. That's on pace w/ a close finish statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A bit of a surprise in #MI06 as 17-term Rep. Fred Upton (R) taking just 59% so far in his primary against pro-Trump primary challenger Elena Oelke (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far in #KSSEN, Roger Marshall (R) leading Kris Kobach (R) 34%-23% early, with big leads in #KS01 as expected but also ahead in Johnson Co. Hard to say, though, whether these initial batches are representative of the overall primary electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There look to be a number of anomalies in the current tallies showing Medicaid expansion passing 73%-27% in MO. Still looks promising for the amendment, but very early. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R), who's charged with voter fraud, starts out as the underdog in the #KS02 GOP primary. He's trailing state treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) 47%-28% in the very early going. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Strong start for grocery chain heir/Army veteran Peter Meijer (R), who's out to a 51%-25% lead over Lynn Afendoulis (R) in #MI03 for GOP nod in Justin Amash (I)'s open seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, came across a GOP poll in a suburban, red-state district Trump carried by double digits in 2016. Biden +8. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my lifetime, 4/5 presidents have been reelected and the one exception happened when I was eight. Sometimes I wonder if the current political moment feels more abnormal to me than to someone born 20 years earlier. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

None of this is to say that Dems don't have more room to fall in a lot of heavily "Trump Democrat" counties. They do. But the bottom line: we can't draw a lot of strong conclusions about 2020 based solely on party registration trends. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Basically, what's happening: in many red counties in FL/PA, thousands of registered Ds who voted Trump in '16 have officially switched to R or, ahem, exited the electorate. But on balance, *new* registrants have skewed much more D/unaffiliated than R. https://t.co/p2UwRU7cjL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This @Axios story appears to take the Trump campaign's narrative at face value, failing to account for the difference between *net* registration change (which has long favored GOP in FL, PA, etc.) and *new* registrations (which favor Dems). https://t.co/Zkbm8mAMyX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reality check...here was #KY06's primary turnout in 2018: Democrats 100,419 Republicans 48,372 November result: Amy McGrath (D) 144,736 Andy Barr (R) 154,468 And FWIW, #KY06 voted for Trump by 15% in 2016. The entire state voted for Trump by 30%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And before you go saying "there are four times as many people in Chester than Fayette!"...there are a lot more PA voters who live in places like Fayette than Chester. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not making this up: so far in 2020, party registration switches in Chester Co., PA (median income $96k) have run 83% pro-D. In Fayette Co., PA (median income $44k), they've run 82% pro-R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're having a hard time wrapping your head around this concept, a good example is Fayette Co. in southwestern PA: In Nov. '16, its voter registration was 58% D, 33% R. It voted 64%-33% for Trump. Today, its voter registration has narrowed to 51% D, 39% R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, it's possible - even likely - that the universe of voters *exiting* the PA electorate is both: 1) more heavily Dem in party registration 2) more heavily pro-Trump ...than the universe of voters entering. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, what's going on in PA? Likely a continuation of long-term trend of Trump-voting registered Ds dying out or formally switching to R. Per @tbonier, total *new* registrations since Nov. '16: +415k D +282k R +226k Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Net PA voter registration change, Nov. '15-Nov. '16: +321k R +244k D +85k Other Net change, Nov. '19-now: +72k R +42k D -2k Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s almost as if Dems’ anti-McConnell fervor is better channeled through non-KY Senate races. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @joesonka: New ⁦@MorningConsult⁩ poll shows Mitch McConnell with large 53-36 lead over Amy McGrath in U.S. Senate race https://t.co/FjoU… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, NYC's election board dropped 32k ballots off to be mailed to voters *one day* before the primary. At current funding levels, we're on pace for many more stories like this in November. — PolitiTweet.org