Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MichaelRWarren: One of the highest-ranking former Trump administration officials to endorse Biden, Miles Taylor, was chief of staff to… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @garyhe: OK so everyone has seen the "viral" photo going around of the piles of mailboxes in Wisconsin being used as evidence that Trump… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JonathanTamari: 68% of Biden supporters say they'll vote by mail or at an early voting site. Relatively few plan to vote at polls. 31%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: It seems like we need a few more gradations in talking about the USPS. A lot of the rhetoric on here falls into categori… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is it possible this shift is all statistical noise? Sure. But it's something to watch over the next month of data. Trump still has an awful long way to go to get back to his numbers w/ non-college whites, and even matching them would likely be insufficient to win again. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The context here: Biden's average lead has fallen from ~10% in June/July to ~8% in August, per RCP/538/others. Although the shift in non-college whites isn't so dramatic we can be sure of it, it would make sense that Trump's recovery is mainly among voters in his best '16 group. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden-Trump in August live-interview national polls (vs. same polls in June/July): Whites w/ college degrees: 56-39 (57-39) Non-college whites: 35-57 (37-56) Suggests a very slight homecoming to Trump among non-college whites, which is not at all surprising as fall approaches. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JonathanTamari: If 2016 turnout rates stay the same, 48% of PA voters this year would be white ppl without college degrees, per @Redist… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: 🚨New Senate ratings change this morning at @CookPolitical 🚨 #SCSen moves from Likely to Lean Republican https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Biden’s success in W. PA driven by voters like this: “I’m not head over heels for him, but I think he’s fine.” If 08 was h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*to use a well-established political data science term — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We talk often about how working-class whites are overrepresented in the Electoral College battleground. But Black voters punch above their weight in those states too, and restoring turnout to 2012/Obama-era proportions would be a big f****** deal.* https://t.co/t8B0rG5Bky — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*to use a well-established political data science term — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We talk often about how working-class whites are overrepresented in the Electoral College battleground. But Black voters punch above their weight in those states too, and restoring turnout to 2016 proportions would be a big f****** deal. https://t.co/nnDbPYfBfC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t expect Harris to change anyone’s vote choice. But in terms of $$ and minority engagement/turnout, hard to see her as anything other than a net plus for Biden. https://t.co/9QYyQLEVmk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: We have now seen a bunch of data now that suggests voters that at least initially voters like Harris and the decision… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Good story by ⁦@reidepstein⁩: a lot of votes to be won if Biden can simply disabuse voters of Trump’s attack that he wants to defund the police. https://t.co/Pa3wamPBrZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @baseballot: FiveThirtyEight is out with a big project this week—no, not that one. Introducing our state-by-state guide to voting in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @electionsmith: In Florida's 2016 GE, 90k mail ballots arrived at county offices on Election Day. 80k more VBM ballots arrived one day… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Can't help but think all the USPS coverage is going to shift millions of D ballots from mail to early in-person/dropbox voting where available, mitigating some of this problem. https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Almost nowhere in TX is this happening faster than in Collin County, where we just moved #TX03 from Likely R to Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And I've got a Brooklyn Bridge to sell you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Life comes at you fast. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BruneElections: The craziest part of the 2020 campaign is still how the Biden campaign went from being on life support to an unstoppabl… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@noahamac By "merge," I mean combine the most Dem parts of each and put the most GOP parts of each in separate districts. My hypothetical map has equally populous districts +/-1k residents as of 2018 estimates. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"We can't underestimate the number of election administration errors" we're headed for, an alarmed House GOP staffer monitoring fall preparedness just told me. The staffer cites "egregious" postal delays, lack of poll workers/training and overwhelmed election administrators. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Same is true if Candace Valenzuela (D) flips suburban Dallas's #TX24: Rs could easily merge her w/ Collin Allred (D) in #TX32. And if Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) flips suburban Houston's #TX22, Rs could easily merge him w/ Lizzie Fletcher (D) in #TX07. Expect 2021 drama. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A huge caveat if Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) flips Gwinnett, GA's #GA07 this November: in 2021, GA Rs could easily merge her and Lucy McBath (D) into one super-blue district in the northern ATL suburbs (#GA06, in the hypothetical below) - essentially flipping the seat back. https://t.co/TMNsFmfnZi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@vetthebern The ACS data for eligible adults is much closer to 37% non-white. But that doesn't necessarily reflect the reality, b/c the electorate was only 27% non-white in 2016/2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: RDD pollsters, like Marist, take a sample of adults and then screen to RVs based on self-reported registration. If your res… — PolitiTweet.org