Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 15:29:14 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The context here: Biden's average lead has fallen from ~10% in June/July to ~8% in August, per RCP/538/others. Although the shift in non-college whites isn't so dramatic we can be sure of it, it would make sense that Trump's recovery is mainly among voters in his best '16 group. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden-Trump in August live-interview national polls (vs. same polls in June/July): Whites w/ college degrees: 56-39 (57-39) Non-college whites: 35-57 (37-56) Suggests a very slight homecoming to Trump among non-college whites, which is not at all surprising as fall approaches. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is it possible this shift is all statistical noise? Sure. But it's something to watch over the next month of data. Trump still has an awful long way to go to get back to his numbers w/ non-college whites, and even matching them would likely be insufficient to win again. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated