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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
*boring is not a pejorative term here. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
DNC's main goal: get voters really excited about electing a boring president. RNC's main goal: get more base Rs agitated against a boring opponent. Should we be surprised conventions didn't move numbers? — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Worth remembering: in 2016, only 39.6% of all voters (and an even lower share in battleground states) had at least a four-year college degree. https://t.co/ZzHT7SugLc — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: It's been a big day of polls, and Biden closes it out strong: --Fox has Biden up by 8 and 9 in WI, AZ, up 4 in NC, all amon… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere. Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
But, he shouldn't be comfortable with too much more erosion: as we've said over and over, non-college whites are overrepresented in the battleground (49% vs. 44% nationally in '16) and their continued movement to Trump would widen gap between Electoral College/popular vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Overall, Biden's erosion w/ non-college whites is to be expected - they're likely to live in Trump-friendlier news/info environments and many are just starting to tune into the race. I don't think it was ever realistic for Biden to sustain 40%+ in that demo except in a blowout. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
However, August polls show Trump continuing to overperform vs. '16 with non-whites, despite his white erosion. Among Blacks, Biden leads 83-9 (vs. 82-8 in June/July and Clinton 83-5 in '16). Among Hispanics, Biden leads 56-31 (vs. 54-29 in June/July and Clinton 61-23 in '16). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Meanwhile, Biden's lead among college+ whites looks quite steady. He led 58-38 in June/July, and 57-38 in August - basically no change there. Per @Nate_Cohn , Clinton led college+ whites 50-38 in final 2016 polls (Trump led 58-30 among non-college whites). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Biden's average lead in these polls has narrowed a bit from 52-40 in June/July to 51-42 today. Among whites, a modest homecoming of non-college grads to Trump. He led 57-36 among them on average in August, vs. 56-38 in June/July - a trend that's not at all surprising. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Fair warning: I'm looking at the change in responses between June/July and *all* of August, not necessarily between pre- and post-convention (although I'm including CNN, Quinnipiac and Suffolk post-convention data)... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Ok, we're back. Back of envelope, I've averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of *eight* live-interview polls that were in the field in June/July and again in August: ABC/WaPo, CNN, Fox, Marist, Monmouth, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac and Suffolk... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
[we pause this programming to add in brand new Suffolk and CNN data, we will be right back after these messages] — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Back of envelope, I've averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of seven polls that were in the field in June/July *and* again in August: Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Fox, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN and Marist... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Thread: the reason I was so eager for new @QuinnipiacPoll national data wasn't that I was expecting a certain result; it was that it allows for a more complete comparison of live-interview national polling from June/July to August. And, there are some clear takeaways... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @QuinnipiacPoll: Biden 52% (52% in July) Trump 42% (37%) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We could really use a new national @QuinnipiacPoll in the next few days.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Note: Biden winning all Clinton states plus only the first three on the list would result in a 269-269 tie that's most likely broken in Trump's favor. FWIW, I'd also put Minnesota - a Clinton state - between #NE02 and Michigan in terms of Biden's likelihood of winning. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
My updated rough personal ranking of the most flippable Trump '16 turf for Biden: 1. Nebraska's 2nd CD 2. Michigan 3. Pennsylvania 4. Arizona 5. Wisconsin 6. Florida 7. North Carolina 8. Georgia 9. Texas 10. Iowa 11. Ohio 12. Maine's 2nd CD — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Take #KS03, for example, an analogous district in the KC suburbs (it voted Clinton +1, #NE02 voted Trump +2). Internal polls in the last few months there have consistently shown Biden up double digits and Rep. Sharice Davids (D) up by even more. These burbs have bailed on Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
At this rate, I really don't think #NE02 is in the same category as MI, WI, PA or AZ. It has a far higher share of college+ whites and is polling really strongly for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ForecasterEnten It's all going to come down to the recount in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @MonmouthPoll Pennsylvania poll: Biden 49% Trump 45% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Pretty amazing that Kennedy not only gave up his safe House seat to lose to Markey, but that in all likelihood he'll be replaced in #MA04 by someone who worked for a Republican as recently as 2014 - because progressives couldn't coalesce in a 9-way primary. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @allymutnick: Overlooked: #MA04 candidate Jake Auchincloss is distantly related to Jackie Kennedy by marriage If I'm following the gene… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
And there it is, per @ShaneGoldmacher. https://t.co/v008GNPwgQ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To me, the test wasn't Biden condemning riots/looting/Trump in a Pittsburgh speech. It's whether he runs ads in swi… https://t.co/o5xnWGPeom
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In #MA04, Jake Auchincloss (D) has taken the lead from Jesse Mermell (D) 21.17% to 21.03%, per @DecisionDeskHQ. And based on what's left, I don't think he'll be relinquishing it. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's looking like 32-year old Marine veteran Jake Auchincloss (D)'s race to lose in #MA04. His extended family includes Jackie Onassis and Gore Vidal, and he was criticized for once being a registered R. But in a 9-way field, having a friendly Super PAC was a huge advantage. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@amandacarpenter @troymacg Thanks!! It's from a trip to Vietnam - if you look closely, two women on bicycles. The artist was an incredibly friendly young guy. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: Markey wins Shelburne, MA, 67%-33%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: in honor of today's Massachusetts primary, tried out the "Shelburne Reel" (w/ an assist from my friend… https://t.co/i7UT4vZdqI
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @SenhorRaposa: Jake Auchincloss wouldn't be winning if someone from the southern end of the district had run. Every candidate was either… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In #MA04, Jesse Mermell (D)'s lead over Jake Auchincloss (D) down to 23%-21%, with plenty of the relatively Auchincloss-strong southern end of the district still outstanding. — PolitiTweet.org
