Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject @MonmouthPoll @StPetePolls A 12 point lead and a 26 point lead are pretty different... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Has this ship already sailed? Very probably yes. But as @nathanlgonzales and others have argued in the past, today's average voter doesn't get the difference between a newsroom/editorial board...and doesn't really want to be told whom to vote for anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hot take: perhaps one of the worst things @nytimes, @washingtonpost & major outlets could do to Biden before 11/3 is...endorse him. Taking sides delegitimizes these outlets' hard news in the eyes of a lot of voters, and helps Trump's case that their stories are biased or "fake." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When you're dealing w/ crosstabs like these, you're dealing with small sample sizes and a lot of noise. It's a stronger result for Biden among FL Hispanics and a weaker result among FL seniors than, say, @QuinnipiacPoll - and as usual, the truth is probably somewhere in between. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @MonmouthPoll quite a different picture from other recent FL data we've seen: it has Biden leading w/ Hispanics 58%-32% but Trump ahead 49%-47% w/ seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty good polling day for Biden so far... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/a8Ewa1KOYy — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @LarrySabato: TWO BALLOT WINS FOR BIDEN: Most on Twitter had assumed WI Supreme Court would put the Greens on the ballot due to 4-3 GOP… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JudyWoodruff: completely blown away and touched, such a beautiful piece of music! Thank you @AprilVerch 🙏, I'm speechless...accepting t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yep. As opposed to MI/PA/WI, where sharp suburban Trump declines can be offset by gains in rural/small town counties, there's almost nothing to offset losing Maricopa. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few reasons why I've long viewed AZ as having unique, huge upside for Biden/Dems: 1) 81% (!) of its vote is metropolitan (PHX, Tucson) 2) large, Trump-skeptical LDS community 3) young, booming Latinx population (w/ very few Cubans) 4) ton of seniors/McCain "Republicans" — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, RCP average has Biden up by more in AZ (+5.6) than PA (+4.3), MI (+4.2) and FL (+1.8). Pretty clear that AZ, as we expected, is shaping up as biggest Trump '16 -Biden '20 shift of any of the core battlegrounds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: note the lower-than-average third-party share in 2016 in both FL-PA -- perhaps a small indicator as to why Trump's polling has… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BresPolitico: ‘This is f—ing crazy’: Florida Latinos swamped by wild conspiracy theories. ⁦@sabrod123⁩ ⁦@MarcACaputo⁩ https://t.co/vnm… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RalstonReports: Folks, Xtreme Manufacturing, where this packed Trump rally is taking place, says on its website: "We have restricted m… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mom wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: 2018's biggest upset was Democrat Kendra Horn's win in Oklahoma's 5th District. Bloomberg made a last-minute investmen… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The Bloomberg playbook in '18 often involved striking very late. Most of the time, they didn't show their hand until they pl… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: mystery solved. My 75 year-old mom on the phone just now..."Did you get my birthday present in the mail? Me: "The mug? That was you?!?! How did you know to come up with that?" Mom: "Well, I am on Twitter, you know. I'm your biggest fan." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nonetheless, to my knowledge LEOs of color have yet to make a cameo in Biden’s post-Kenosha ads. And although Biden’s modestly ahead, it’s arguably been a missed opportunity to blunt Trump’s attacks and put the race away. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

From the pro-Trump swing state ads airing now, you’d think the president has 100% support from law enforcement and Ds are the anti-police party. In reality, Biden has support from tons of sheriffs/chiefs/LEOs - particularly those of color - and the gun issue is a big reason. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One issue that I actually think could indirectly bolster Biden/Dems’ “law and order” credentials w/ major metro voters in a place like FL: guns. https://t.co/WoXKjoza9B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, there it is. https://t.co/WoXKjoza9B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mayatcontreras Undecided voters - of all colors - w/ seemingly contradictory views are actually *under-covered* by the media, judging by the number of stories framing 2020 as all about base turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @WinWithJMC: ABOUT THOSE BAD BALLOTS IN NORTH CAROLINA: (As of 9/12/2020 AM) Whites: 98% accepted, 2% rejected Asians: 97-3% Two/More R… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@grace_panetta Sure, but it doesn’t explain the full gap. Movement in WI consistent w other surveys/national. Best NYT/Siena result for Biden here was MN. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden’s lead in WI did narrow from 49%-38% in June to 48%-43% in this poll - not insignificant. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: @jimmykimmel Hi Jimmy! That mail ballot request form did not come from a state or county government office, it came from… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One thing that's clear from the NC VBM requests so far, which skew overwhelmingly white & Dem: voters of color are far more skeptical about voting by mail, perhaps with good reason. We're likely to see much greater non-white enthusiasm for early *in-person* voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In NC and several other states, self-reported race is listed in the voter file. — PolitiTweet.org