Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Total spent on TV ads by Amy McGrath (D) in #KYSEN so far this year, per @Ad_Analytics: $25.9 million Total spent on TV ads by Dems/others educating PA voters how to successfully envelop and cast a mail ballot: ?? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is incorrect. The previous Bendixen & Amandi survey showed Biden up 55%-38% in Miami-Dade. He was up 47%-46% among Miami-Dade's *Hispanics.* Biden likely needs >60% in Miami-Dade to win FL. cc: @Politics_Polls — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is incorrect. The previous Bendixen & Amandi survey showed Biden up 55%-38% in Miami-Dade. He was up 47%-46% among Miami-Dade's *Hispanic.* cc: @Politics_Polls — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind, PA does not have a similar uniform cure process. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Justin_Riemer Pretty clear that the campaign sued to require counties to toss them, and yes, the PA Supreme Court ruled to interpret the statue in that manner. That's not been the prevailing interpretation of the law in recent PA elections. https://t.co/wHQ7pRUN5O — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kentucky '16: Trump +30% FL/PA/WI '16: Trump +1% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Latest @TheEconomist/@YouGov national poll (9/13-15): Donald Trump: 45% fav / 55% unfav Mitch McConnell: 27% fav / 58% unfav — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, these independent/swing voters also disliked Romney more than Trump and view him as more extreme/far-right than Trump. Linking Trump to Romney/McConnell could actually pay off for Dems. Still not sure Lincoln Project et. al. understand this dynamic. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remember: the Trump campaign successfully sued to have these November ballots tossed, even though most naked ballots were counted in June's primary. This is deliberate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We don't know to what extent education efforts by Dems/others will rein in this %. It's also possible November-not-June voters will be even less familiar w/ mail rules and cast naked ballots at *higher* rates. What we do know: these rejected ballots will be *heavily* pro-Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just heard from a reporter in western PA who's about to uncover yet *another* county where the naked ballot rate was ~5% in June. This appears to be the norm, not the exception. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PeterHamby: Mitt Romney — conservative Republican who ran for president twice as a conservative Republican on the promise of appointing… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is it a model? A needle? A strudel? Tune in tomorrow to find out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: While Denver suburbs have drifted more Dem over the last 15 years, ski towns are isolated bubbles far away from the big cit… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @databyler: if this confirmation happens fast enough, we'll still have time for 2-3 more earth-shattering events before november — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ArePundits Yes — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have pollsters taken steps to correct education weighting, etc.? Yes. Could polls still systemically be off by a few points in either Biden or Trump's direction? Absolutely. "100k tossed ballots wouldn't matter b/c Biden's up by more than that" just isn't a very sound argument. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Inalein_19 @marceelias already tried and lost — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why this is a big deal: the current @FiveThirtyEight polls average has Biden +4.5% in PA. But their final 2016 forecast had Clinton +3.7%, and it's not unreasonable that tossed "naked ballots" could cost Biden ~1% of statewide margin, no matter the result.https://t.co/p8nrWtmPac — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Elaijuh: A lot of comments/replies have been about how easy it is to know to use the secrecy envelope. A child could do it; it’s not ro… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SenatorRomney: My statement regarding the current Supreme Court vacancy: https://t.co/6YO0dPWWXc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's be honest you were really just craving some biscuits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: A different way to think about it: --If Biden outperforms the polls by 2, he's the winner on 11/3 with a FL call at 8PM and-… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although Dems tend to think of Trump’s wing of the party as the extreme one, scholarship has routinely shown independents/swing voters 1) actually view Trump as more moderate and 2) dislike “establishment” Rs such as McConnell much more. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinda amazed more Dems haven’t seized the opportunity to portray Trump as a “Trojan horse for Mitch McConnell and DC’s radical right.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're not up to speed on this situation, here's a good explainer by @Elaijuh. The "naked ballot" rate has commonly been 5-6% in the past. Except this time 1) PA's mail ballot share is about to go up tenfold and 2) naked ballots won't count. https://t.co/7oB32JGopd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@roon0292 If invited, I absolutely will. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, regardless of the outcome, 80-100k or more PA ballots being tossed out on a technicality is a foreseeable train wreck. Perhaps more national news outlets should be picking this up? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Never have we seen such an extreme divergence between money/ads vs. in-person contact as we're seeing in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now let's look at TX's 243 *non-Whole Foods* counties. In 1992, they cast 45% of TX's votes and gave Bill Clinton 48%. In 2016, they cast 41% and gave Hillary Clinton 32%. In 2018, they cast 39% and gave Beto O'Rourke 34%. Eventually, TX's Whole Foods-ification will doom Rs. — PolitiTweet.org