Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JHagner Once you have a critical mass of ~200n FL Latino subsamples that all demonstrate some degree of underperformance vs. '16 - and are consistent w/ national polls - you start taking note! With respect to VBM data, we just don't have many priors for this situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Enthusiasm about voting is running extremely high among both Biden voters (especially mail/early) and Trump voters (Election Day). **For the millionth time, beware news stories attempting to draw meaningful conclusions about the election outcome from VBM data** — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ThePlumLineGS You know better than to read anything into this... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SherylNYT: Health Secretary Alex Azar, on the Trump family's failure to wear masks at the recent debate despite a requirement for the a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ForecasterEnten Where is our national CNN/SSRS poll? I’ve been waiting... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One voter registration bright spot for Dems: #NE02 (Omaha, 1 EV)... January 2020: 161k R, 152k D, 111k Other October 2020: 166k R, 161k D, 116k Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: At this rate, there’s still time for 5-7 more major bombshells to not upend the race between now and November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @joemmathews: After White House officials learned of Hicks’ symptoms, Trump and his entourage flew to New Jersey, where he attended a fu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Only thing worse than last presidential debate: next presidential debate on Zoom. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @pkcapitol: Trump is threatening to force election into federal courts and, if time runs out, believes House will give him a 2nd term. B… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Making sound judgments on Election Night - when data is flying faster and more furiously than any one person can handle - requires a team. Fortunately, major networks employ experienced teams. Responsible 11/3 coverage demands statistical rigor, transparency & patience. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, I'd expect that for every 98 times "I've seen enough" ends up being correct, there might be two times it ends up being incorrect. I'm comfortable w/ that level of risk on most nights. But on 11/3, the stakes are way too high to mischaracterize results. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My general approach to "seeing enough" on Twitter is to make that declaration at a ~98% personal confidence interval, whereas a media organization might prudently wait to project a race at a ~99%+ confidence interval. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This might be a good opportunity to explain why I will *not* be saying "I've seen enough" on Election Night 11/3 (besides the main reason, which is a longstanding contractual obligation w/ a network desk)... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Network decision desks are well-equipped to provide critical context to the public: the nature of the votes that have been counted, and what's still out. Without these experienced teams, false claims would go unchecked. And, several key states could be safely callable on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Respectfully disagree. The potential for false victory claims is precisely why media organizations *should* clearly communicate results on Election Night - whether they merit a projection or not - rather than hold back. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Entering October, I've rarely seen this level of consistency in district-level polling by both parties: Trump is running 5%-10% behind his '16 margins, w/ the exception of heavily Latino districts. In heavily suburban districts, his lag is sometimes >10%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Early voting for Pennsylvania 2020 election gets off to rocky start at Philadelphia sites https://t.co/FXWy9vF5tV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NateSilver538 The scatterplot thickens — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@50megatonFbomb This is actually the most convincing argument i've seen yet for taking off my "pundit pants" — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@daveweigel Folks... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That's it? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: In 2016, 1.3 million people cast a ballot in Harris County. In 2020, there will be one (1) mail-in ballot drop-off loca… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2007, Dems represented 50 of the nation's 100 wealthiest House districts. Today, they represent 79. Turns out, there are other big down-line consequences for Republicans when rich people bail on you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Turns out it's not just "Dems have ActBlue." It's also "Dems have a passionate anti-Trump/McConnell base increasingly made up of people with lots of disposable income." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As numerous people have pointed out, you can also register at one-stop early voting locations in NC thru 10/31 and at your polling location in WI on Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are lots of potential benefits to a ground game besides voter registration, but at this late date there are only: - 4 days left to register to vote in AZ/FL - 8 days in NC - 18 days in PA - 29 days in WI (MI has same-day registration) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, I don't really give a **** about your "both sides!" or "horse race!" complaint when you see data/stories you don't like. My job is to call it as I see it. And sometimes materially important developments in races don't benefit your side. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NateSilver538 spent a good 59 minutes sweating this subtweet was directed at me...had to put on a new shirt — PolitiTweet.org