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Showing page 156 of 504.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The president has hermetically sealed himself into an alternative information ecosystem not shared by the majority of U.S. voters, and with 12 days to go this is the consequence. https://t.co/hHhfNNzSwA — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Might take the over on 154 million (narrowly). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to b… https://t.co/mwT058pVoP
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Mrtraveler02 Disagree. Johnson Co. is turning into a base Dem county that's pretty unrepresentative of the state. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If this isn't a GOP play for anti-Trump suburban Rs, I'm not sure what is. — PolitiTweet.org
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
New @JohnCornyn spot hits @mjhegar for cursing on the campaign trail: https://t.co/VkA6XKJO2t #TXSEN
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @mitchellreports: .@Redistrict: "(Seeing) multiple polls out of districts Romney carried by 15+ & Trump 10+ in 2016 where Joe Biden is n… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Bottom line: 2020 polls depict an electorate polarizing along gender lines, slightly depolarizing along racial lines and whites polarized about the same along educational lines. And, Biden has made progress w/ critical battleground groups (seniors, non-college whites, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In 2020, final polls showed a 20 point gender gap: men Trump +6, women Clinton +14. Exit polls pegged ultimate gap at 24 points. Today's gender canyon is a gargantuan 27 points: men Trump +2, women Biden +25. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The only group where we're seeing improvement in Trump's margin vs. '16? Hispanic voters. Today, live-interview average has Trump down 27 points, vs. 38 points per @UpshotNYT's average of final '16 polls. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix. A few breathtaking splits: - Biden now +25 w/ women - Biden now +10 w/ seniors https://t.co/XCbybZJdJu — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Despite all the hype about KS, this feels about right. Trump is underperforming his '16 margin by about 14 points - that's pretty staggering and a larger than average swing! But...it's still Kansas. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Republicans still hold a modest lead in deeply conservative Kansas, according to a new Times/Siena poll. President:… https://t.co/n8BCKmaqMA
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @QuinnipiacPoll national (LVs): Biden 51% Trump 41% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
However, the scenario above might also be *underestimating* the potential for nonwhite Dem turnout growth in the Sun Belt. In short, not hard to argue today's polls are closer to a Biden 400+ EV landslide (GA, TX, OH, IA) than Trump winning 270+. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Now, the huge caveat: our swingometer is designed to estimate the impact of uniform demographic swings, which never truly happen. There's strong evidence Biden is winning back plenty of non-college whites in the Upper Midwest, but not so many in the Deep South (FL/GA/TX etc.) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Right now, here's what @CookPolitical's swingometer spits out when you plug in the demographic splits from the curr… https://t.co/vDsmNNw81R — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
*2,437,417 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Fact: more people have now early voted in North Carolina (2,4317,317) than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in North Carolina (2,362,631) in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @kaitlancollins: The FBI is about to hold an abruptly scheduled press conference on election security. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Have tried my best to raise awareness about PA's "naked ballot" issue. Would also be just fine if I never saw Jeff Toobin or Rudy Giuliani on TV ever again. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Frankly, even if there was a big early turnout edge in heavily Dem counties vs. Trump counties (as there is in many other states), it would still be hazardous to draw conclusions from the data. We know the EDay vote is just going to be much friendlier to Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Frankly, even if there was a big early turnout edge in heavily Dem counties vs. Trump counties (as there is in many places), it would still be hazardous to draw conclusions from the data. We know the EDay vote is just going to be much friendlier to Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast: Clinton-won counties: 60% Trump-won counties: 59% Another reminder you shouldn't read a partisan advantage from huge turnout. Both parties' bases highly motivated. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CookPolitical: NEW: 12 House rating changes in #CA50 #FL26 #GA06 #IL13 #IL17 #KS03 #MI03 #MN01 #MN02 #NC09 #VA02 #WA03 Read @Redistri… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @CookPolitical House ratings with 13 days to go: Solid/Likely/Lean D: 228 Solid/Likely/Lean R: 181 Toss Up: 26 Latest outlook: Democratic net gain of 5-15 seats. https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga https://t.co/kicYCjmLSq — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Back in 2018, our first poll of KS-03 showed Davids up 8 and I thought--that can't be right. Two years later she's 'safe Dem… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: 12 late-breaking House rating changes, all but one in Democrats’ direction. Read full analysis: https://t.co/2GN5ycoQz2 https://t.co/TpcnkgB4AK — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical Ps of course I do maintain this data in my personal spreadsheet — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical problem is the districts that run counter to type; e.g. #VA10 has same number of WF/CB — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We've got a dozen more late-breaking House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical tomorrow morning. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @rickhasen: This conversation between @Redistrict and @ThePlumLineGS is well worth your time. Better than just looking at polling averag… — PolitiTweet.org
