Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m *not* assuming that NoVa’s anti-Trump moderates are automatically Dem voters in state-level elections. And I think it’s reasonable to assume at least some asymmetrical drop-off in base D turnout w/ Trump out of office. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: @SeanTrende A year after VA voted for Barack Obama by 6 pts, it voted for Bob McDonnell by 17 pts. For a variety of reaso… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SeanTrende A year after VA voted for Barack Obama by 6 pts, it voted for Bob McDonnell by 17 pts. For a variety of reasons, we’re not going to see a 23 pt swing this year. But I just don’t think we have a good handle on what either party’s turnout looks like in the post-Trump era yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Less than 50%, but >25% (except Chase, ~0%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I think Republicans actually have a good chance to win the VA governor’s race this year. We’ll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reversing Dems' slide among white non-college (if even by a point) was Biden's huge, decisive achievement in 2020 - and I'm not sure a different Dem could hope for 37% in 2024/2028. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I grew up on your columns and will never forget that when this high school junior emailed you out of the blue asking for career advice, you replied within a day and told me to practice my writing and keep studying history. Thanks for the encouragement. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, this video is proof we were way ahead of the @SteveKornacki khaki curve. OTOH, the hair gel and the exaggerated Jersey accent weren't my best choices, looking back on it now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks congressman, but nothing will ever top your "dancing seniors" ad. https://t.co/e2MIGmnpXY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RRHElections: Dave was an #ET teen 10 years before Twitter existed. https://t.co/0mngQiTIpu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Time flies. FWIW, the site was the brainchild of David @Wildstein and featured an intrepid young reporter named @SteveKornacki. The hosts of this @News12NJ show were @lauralindseyj and @JimMcqWS. If you're out there somewhere, thanks for the big break!! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Since age 12, I wanted to be a political pundit. At 15, in the late 1990s, I got my first break writing a column called "NJ Governor 2021" for a New Jersey politics website. Well, I'm not running for gov this fall, but I did just find this old VHS tape... (w/ @RyanJPeene) https://t.co/YGkgLzXZ1a — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Absent primary reform and much higher barriers to partisan subversion of election results, we're a lot closer to constitutional crisis and serious secession movements than many people realize. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By the way, most legislators I've interviewed over the years privately agree, and would be all too happy to be unshackled from them. That's why this kind of reform has actually taken hold in several states, and holds the most promise for reducing perverse incentives. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This TedTalk by @katherinegehl gets a lot right. The real reason politics sucks now? Primaries. If more politicians were unshackled from them, 100% DC/state capitals would get more done and we'd be going down a lot fewer absurd rabbit holes. https://t.co/I2Ye9FHDWE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: It would the the Congress elected in 2024 (not 2022) that decides this. Nonetheless, it's sort of shocking that Democr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big dissonance between Dems, who view this as House Rs replacing someone unwilling to lie about 2020 w/ one who will (accurate), vs. House Rs, who see it is as replacing someone who will distract from bid for 218 w/ one who won't (prob no difference). https://t.co/HeiWfTOFxd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: all our redistricting resources on one dashboard. See who controls the process, detailed state-by-state analysis, demographic breakdowns, forecast maps, and who's at risk. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/8GWTyZVHU2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@WinWithJMC No, but 19D-8R to 23D-3R would still be a pretty big swing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Again, this is wishful thinking on the left and not how gerrymandering works in practice. The more likely play for NY Dems: pack Stefanik's district w/ Rs to eliminate Tenney. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: The ouster of Liz Cheney from GOP leadership has everything: Trump, scions, hypocrisy....But, one thing it doesn’t have: an… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In all seriousness, I don't think people spend enough time considering how much further Dems could have fallen in heavily WWC areas if Biden hadn't been the nominee. It's pretty much the biggest pitfall for a different D in 2024/2028. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Can someone get me a Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel breakdown for #Hartlepool? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis for @CookPolitical subscribers: why #NM01's special is likely to be a much better barometer than #TX06 - and why Albuquerque's soaring murder rate & low turnout make this Biden +23 seat worth watching ($). https://t.co/xdlBY9dWRF https://t.co/k1480DYlOX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2012, Stefanik's district, #NY21, voted 52%-46% for Obama. In 2020, it voted 54%-44% for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRosenblattTV @neilmcenerney @RepStefanik @RepJohnKatko Delgado would be in the 19th CD, which would go from Biden +2 to Biden +8 or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jennymedina: I went to McAllen to understand what's driving the improved performance for Republicans in South Texas. One answer: Hispan… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@pkcapitol That's generous to Rs. The map above would replace the current 19D-8R w/ 23D-3R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@pkcapitol And not just shore up Delgado and SPM, but eliminate Tenney and possibly Katko. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this hypothetical Dem gerrymander, Stefanik's house would be in #NY19 and Rep. Claudia Tenney (R)'s house would be in #NY22, but they'd have to battle it out in a #NY21 GOP primary to have much chance of survival (and Stefanik would be heavily favored). https://t.co/T80B44O9ms — PolitiTweet.org