Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I don't think we can tell where #VAGOV stands based on polls that all make slightly different assumptions about who will vote. My guess is that Youngkin is on track to lose by 2-5 pts b/c he's been unwilling to take positions that would help him win. But just a guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, Virginia's attempt at redistricting reform has been a train wreck. A good writeup by @gmoomaw. https://t.co/wMf8Zb0sJz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Roflsnarf1 Actually in this version, Palm Harbor/northern Pinellas stays in #FL12 and #FL13 picks up deep red parts of Manatee. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One Dem I'm skeptical Republicans will target: #FL05 Rep. Al Lawson (D). Jacksonville and Tallahassee are both experiencing Dem vote growth (bucking FL's overall trend). Rs will likely want to keep them packed in one vote sink - not to mention avoid triggering a VRA lawsuit. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the example above: - #FL28 would be a new Trump +16 seat south of Orlando - #FL07 Murphy (D) moves from Biden +10 to Trump +15 - #FL13 Crist (D) moves from Biden +4 to Trump +1 - #FL27 Salazar (R) moves from Biden +3 to Trump +4 by ditching Miami Beach/Brickell/Coconut Grove — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin. https://t.co/2MI9zaTadF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: just when Florida Dems thought it couldn't get any worse, it's about to. Why FL is the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2022. https://t.co/XIgsFcKQcy https://t.co/l01tLAEJj5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Arkansas legislators of either party truly wanted to maximize the chance of electing a minority candidate of cho… https://t.co/dkoAunHjWd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The irony: in 2011, Arkansas Dems could've drawn a Little Rock/Delta district that would've likely elected the state's first Black member. They didn't, and now the new GOP proposal would render Dems irrelevant. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yawn. We’ve reached the point where $1 million barely matters. What does? Redistricting. An extra 1% of Dem performance gained via gerrymandering #MD01 would be a lot more valuable than $1 million for ads. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Montana's commission has winnowed its maps to nine finalists, w/ new western seats ranging from Trump +1 to Trump +13. That's a lot of ways to draw one line. https://t.co/75IvufykO0 https://t.co/APDvux10Fo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CMBWillMac @CookPolitical Got you covered... https://t.co/0qEkZfp21v — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The certification step is where this sort of optimistic case on election subversion becomes too tenuous, as I think I've men… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As we wrote back in June, New Mexico Dems are likely to push for a 3D-0R shutout targeting #NM02 Rep. Yvette Herrell (R), w/ the public rationale of uniting Hispanic voters in Las Cruces and Albuquerque. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: New Mexico politics guru Joe Monahan (@newsguy44) got his hands on a draft congressional map he says is "in the running… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical PVI values and 2022 House ratings are live for Oregon, Maine, Nebraska and Indiana. https://t.co/dUuIJ3kFYv? https://t.co/OFm7v4bI9i — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprise here: Iowa Republicans reject a map that would've imperiled #IA02 Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). Now we'll see if they accept a 2nd or 3rd nonpartisan draft - or break precedent and gerrymander. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No vote yet, but IA Republicans poised to reject first nonpartisan map proposals. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Expecting news in IA today. Follow along w/ @brianneDMR and @DMRIanR. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ map-drafting getting underway. Any configuration that puts Yavapai Co. wholly in #AZ01 (as in below) would likely doom Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This CO map is one example of why I’m generally #TeamCounties (vs. municipalities). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Indiana becomes the fourth state to finish congressional redistricting. New GOP map preserves 7R-2D breakdown, majorly shoring up #IN05 Rep. Victoria Spartz (R). But, Dems fortunate to avoid an 8R-1D map here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 I don’t put much stock in horse race polls of this race, tbh. If they’re off by the same amount they were in 2020 (who knows!), 43% would be pretty attainable for Youngkin in Loudoun. Do I think he actually gets there? Probably not. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short: I think Youngkin would need to flip Virginia Beach, Chesterfield and Chesapeake back to red, plus hit ~34% in Fairfax, ~42% in Prince William and ~43% in Loudoun to have a chance. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Had a few minutes on a plane, so I built a model of the vote targets Terry McAuliffe (D) or Glenn Youngkin (R) would need to exceed in each locality to win #VAGOV on 11/2. https://t.co/8hx4bn15Lw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Spoiler alert: Wisconsin's political geography is terrible for Dems. Almost as bad as it is for the GOP in Massachusetts, where Rs routinely win about a third of the vote but would be lucky to win even one of nine districts on a "neutral" map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now live for @CookPolitical subscribers: our final state preview, Wisconsin. Bottom line: Dems are at severe risk of a 6R-2D blowout in 2022 - even though the state is evenly divided and the GOP no longer exclusively controls redistricting. https://t.co/fgZdN8hs3I https://t.co/RHBQ0knNtJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, racial/election stats on the current map (left): #AL07 - 62% Black, Biden +42 All others - 32% Black or less, Trump +27 or more Hypothetical map (right): #AL06 - 42% Black, Biden +16 #AL07 - 53% Black, Biden +16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is the suit a long shot? Yes. But it's hard to see why federal courts should apply a different standard in AL/LA/SC than in NC/VA et. al. The map on the right doesn't split any of Alabama's major cities, keeps the Black Belt whole & features two safe Black seats (Biden +16). — PolitiTweet.org