Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this environment, mostly yes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind, the median 2021 legislative swing from the 2020 presidential margin in both NJ & VA (which are more suburban in character than #IL17) was ~12 pts towards Rs. So if anything, Toss Up is being generous to Dems here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're starting out #IL17 as a Toss Up at @CookPolitical. Why not Lean D? Because Dems gerrymandered it sloppily. With a few minor changes around the edges, they could have drawn it to be Biden +11.6 (left). Instead, they left it at Biden +7.8 (right). https://t.co/NBsVZR1lkM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, there seems to be a prevailing thought on here that it's #MD05 Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) holding back Dems from pursuing a more aggressive map, which isn't the case at all. Dems' obstacle is (at least) one incumbent from the Baltimore area. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: as expected, South Carolina Republicans propose a 6R-1D map that would shift more Dem precincts around Charleston from #SC01 to #SC06, boosting #SC01 Rep. Nancy Mace (R) from Trump +6 to +9. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Illinois becomes the 18th state to complete congressional redistricting, following newly signed maps in MA, OH & OK earlier this week. It aims to convert IL from 13D-5R to 14D-3R, though #IL17 in particular could still be vulnerable to GOP takeover. https://t.co/5qLTovGC1c — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DrewSav Incorrect, that's not at all the holdup for MD Dems. The obstacle is a reluctance to shift Annapolis and part of Howard County into #MD01 to make it Biden +15 or more. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

National Dems have been counting on Dem gerrymanders in MD, IL and NY to offset aggressive GOP gerrymanders in GA, NC, OH, and TX among others. But in at least MD, they may not end up w/ anything more than what they already have. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Maryland Dem legislators are preparing to advance a modified version of this 7D-0R-1C draft (instead of a pure 8D-0R map) that would leave Freedom Caucus Rep. Andy Harris (R) with a path to victory by excluding blue Annapolis from #MD01. Actual draft coming soon. https://t.co/jXhPdSS5aV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: We've got our THIRD member-vs-member race of the 2022 cycle Reps Lucy McBath (D) vs Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in GA Reps Sean… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you set the thresholds for Biden/Trump at +10, it's a bit clearer Republicans are getting the better end of this anti-competitive deal: Trump +10 or more: 66 ➡️ 80 (+21%) Biden +10 or more: 46 ➡️ 50 (+9%) Biden +10 to Trump +10: 40 ➡️ 25 (-38%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting update: new maps have either passed or await signature in 19 states. The biggest loser so far? Competition. Net seat change, per @CookPolitical: Trump +5 or more: 76 ➡️ 87 (+14%) Biden +5 or more: 52 ➡️ 58 (+12%) Biden +5 to Trump +5: 24 ➡️ 10 (-58%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#TX30 Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) becomes the 16th Dem to forgo reelection in 2022 (very much expected, and a safe Dem Dallas seat). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not me — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because it was passed without bipartisan support, it's valid for four years only (hardly a penalty, b/c Rs can just redraw it in four years). The biggest threat to the map, however, is the OH Supreme Court, which must decide if it violates OH's anti-gerrymandering rules. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Gov. Mike DeWine (R) makes Ohio the 15th state to complete new congressional lines, signing a map that could balloon Republicans' advantage from 12R-4D to 13R-2D in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ProfNickStephan: Of note, both @SeanTrende and Grofman have written extensively about measures of partisan fairness. They have no excus… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Election Twitter's own @SeanTrende and Bernard Grofman, a UC-Irvine professor who has previously served as a court-appointed special master to redraw VA's lines, will work together to draft VA's next maps. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Harris and McCarthy have to exorcise the demons — and shortcomings — that hurt them last time around. But, the most importa… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Shorter McCarthy: I acknowledge I have skeptics in my conference after what happened on the last big vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In California, the commission can’t take into account partisanship or incumbents when drafting new lines. But that doesn’t stop threatened incumbents from trying to influence the process for their own benefit… https://t.co/Yx1QG5xwaM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, we have our first veto of a congressional redistricting plan. Gov. Tony Evers (D) blocks a 6R-2D plan passed by the GOP legislature, but it's possible a court-drawn map could lead to the same result in 2022. https://t.co/HStHztZIss — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: analysis of the latest redistricting developments in MA, MI, OH, VA & WI. https://t.co/tyD8j7FAUo https://t.co/pDuMvfUCFk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This would have been a Toss Up under the just-passed NC lines anyway (pending lawsuits), but would become even more uphill for Dems without Butterfield. #NC01 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bad news for Dems in this 9R-5D gerrymander: Rep. Lucy McBath (D) would get a solid red #GA06. Consolation for Dems: Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) gets a solid blue #GA07 and Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) keeps a Dem-leaning #GA02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Been hearing this as well: #GA06 could remain a weak gerrymander (good enough for Rs to win in 2022, but questionable beyond that). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nevada becomes the 14th state to complete congressional redistricting. By unpacking Las Vegas's #NV01 and drawing 3/4 districts w/ single-digit Biden margins, Dems have taken a calculated risk to maximize their (decreasing) chances for a House majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here's the map the commission approved (a little too late) and is urging the WA Supreme Court to adopt anyway. It's a fairly status quo map that would keep Rep. Kim Schrier (D)'s competitive #WA08 mostly unchanged, from Biden +6.5 to +6.7. Still 6D-3R-1C. https://t.co/jyoKZmVboc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting: the WA commission admits it barely missed its midnight deadline to approve new maps, but urges the WA Supreme Court to adopt the lines it agreed on a few minutes too late. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An emerging mini-theme: Republican mappers reducing the Black %s in rural VRA districts just enough that Black Dem incumbents would be in danger, but not so much that a lawsuit against vote dilution would be a slam dunk (#GA02, #NC01). — PolitiTweet.org