Deleted tweet detection is currently running at reduced
capacity due to changes to the Twitter API. Some tweets that have been
deleted by the tweet author may not be labeled as deleted in the PolitiTweet
interface.
Showing page 47 of 496.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Bottom line: we're on track for more Biden-won seats (and more D-leaning seats, by @CookPolitical PVI) after redistricting than before. That's great news for Dems long-term. But the practical outcome of new maps is still likely to be a small GOP gain vs. *current* seat control. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Meanwhile, nine seats have moved the other way, from D-leaning to R-leaning. That's fewer than 15! But 8/9 are also currently held by Dems: #AZ06, #GA06, #MI08, #MI10, #NJ07, #NC02, #NC07, #OH09. That means Rs have twice as many pickup chances in "partisan makeover" seats. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Nationally, across the 28 states w/ complete (or near-complete) maps, 15 seats have moved from R-leaning to D-leaning, by @CookPolitical PVI. But Dems already hold 11 of these 15 seats, meaning only four are pickup opportunities (#CA45, #IL13, #MI03, #NM02). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Virginia's new map is another good example. One R-leaning seat moves to D-leaning: #VA07, which helps Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). But one R-leaning seat gets redder: #VA02, held by Rep. Elaine Luria (D). Likeliest outcome: 6D-5R, a net Dem loss vs. current 7D-4R split. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is! However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11. Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use. As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: A world of existential uncertainty calls for humility and a willingness to revise one’s mental models in response to new i… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@baseballot @max_vitek Yes, my mistake. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The new MI map features 5 Solid GOP and 4 Solid Dem seats. New @CookPolitical ratings for the four remaining seats: #MI04 Meijer (R) - Toss Up #MI07 Slotkin (D) - Toss Up #MI08 Kildee (D) - Toss Up #MI10 NEW SEAT - Likely R — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The new VA map features 5 Solid Dem and 4 Solid GOP seats. New @CookPolitical ratings for the two remaining competitive seats: #VA02 Luria (D) - Toss Up #VA07 Spanberger (D) - Lean D — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: our ratings for new districts in Arizona, New Jersey and California, which became the 21st, 22nd and 23rd states to complete congressional redistricting in the past week. https://t.co/peKsPsNM42 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Ok, any other states wanna drop big redistricting news today? — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By my calculation, that new #VA07 is Biden +7. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) would be much safer in a primary than in the first special masters' proposal, but still somewhat vulnerable in November 2022 (though it's better for her than her current Biden +1 seat). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wow, this is quite different from the special masters' first proposal. At first glance: - Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) gets a much more tenuous #VA07 - Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) gets a safe #VA10 - Rep. Elaine Luria (D) still very vulnerable in #VA02 — PolitiTweet.org
Ben Paviour @BPaves
The Virginia Supreme Court has signed off on new political lines for the next decade. The final order is here, alon… https://t.co/QWT335QsiD
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
However, Reps. Andy Levin (D) & Dan Kildee (D) get more vulnerable, while Elissa Slotkin (D) remains vulnerable in Lansing and Rep. Peter Meijer (R) could still win a Biden +9 Grand Rapids seat. Bottom line: if 2022 is a great GOP year, this map could be 9R-4D (vs. 7D-7R now). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Michigan's independent commission votes to adopt "Chestnut" plan, which would've split 7-6 Biden in 2020, a slight improvement for Dems over the 8-6 Trump split on the current GOP-drawn map. https://t.co/iI4k1JjTCn — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@ColbyItkowitz @seungminkim The phrasing in the article still implies 59 is the national total, when I think you're just referring to the states that have completed. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@seungminkim @ColbyItkowitz https://t.co/WyycbfOrDS — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This is incorrect. As it stands, Trump carried 130/435 districts by 15+ pts (this number will increase after redist… https://t.co/64P5P8KkiT
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This is incorrect. As it stands, Trump carried 130/435 districts by 15+ pts (this number will increase after redistricting, as will the number of solidly Biden seats). — PolitiTweet.org
Seung Min Kim @seungminkim
"In 2020, Trump won 45 districts by more than 15 percentage points. Under new maps already finalized in more than a… https://t.co/1xIHhGZSQt
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Based on oral arguments so far, I'd be pretty surprised if the GOP-drawn congressional map is upheld by the Ohio Supreme Court. The part of the map likeliest to be found in violation: Hamilton Co. (Cincinnati), which is unnecessarily split three ways to dilute Dem votes. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A lot on the line here (perhaps control of 2-3 House seats). — PolitiTweet.org
Ohio Supreme Court @OHSupremeCourt
TOMORROW: Ohio’s new U.S. congressional districts have been challenged as unconstitutional. Oral arguments before t… https://t.co/OTEhcPcGtu
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: I think this piece is broadly right, but a lot of what looks like a huge surprise in redistricting comes from two separate m… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@RossWeiner2 Lawyers who work for minority/voter advocacy groups, not political parties. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@ChazNuttycombe I’ve worked for 2/3 but still trying to find an in at Inside Elections so I can hit for the cycle. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: after last decade's brawl, AZ's unanimously adopted map is a remarkable achievement. Like the old map, it would've broken 5-4 Biden in 2020. But Rs now have a better shot at a 6R-3D split in 2022. Full analysis live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/abq4INo1tU — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: a few months ago, most Dems wouldn’t have considered a 9D-3R split out of NJ (down from 10D-2R now) a victory. But it sure looks like one now. My analysis now live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/CkPH1KQL0Q — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here's an excellent, nuanced of Dems' mega-lawyer by @PoliticsReid. He's a partisan combatant responsible for many of Dems' redistricting court triumphs. He's also arguing a 5-1 Biden map in OR is great but a 5-4 Biden map in AZ is a brazen gerrymander. https://t.co/qFZbiShHdP — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Hearing increasing concerns from Dem members of Congress that the party’s legal apparatus filing a ton of dead-end lawsuits (for example, AZ map passed w/ unanimous bipartisan support) could diminish their side’s credibility in the suits that actually matter. — PolitiTweet.org
Marc E. Elias @marceelias
It is disappointing that the AZ Commission produced an illegally gerrymandered map. Arizonians deserve better. Ariz… https://t.co/tP6cbOKNof
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@DavidOcamb No argument there. https://t.co/Bj9IPnAgRx — PolitiTweet.org