Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the metrics of compactness, competitiveness and responsiveness, I’d say the NY special master @CERVASJ turned in a very strong performance - at least on the congressional map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And from a partisan standpoint, the biggest shifts are the Long Island ones: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) gets a safe South Shore #NY02 (from Biden +6 to Trump +1) and open #NY03 adds Woodbury/loses parts of Massapequa, boosting Dems' chances to keep it (from Biden +5 to +8). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, New York ends up with a 21-5 Biden map. Not the worst outcome for Dems. But because five of those seats are single digit Biden seats, anything from 16D-10R to 21D-5R realistic depending on the year. https://t.co/4Klzw2RtOm https://t.co/ueMbYj524v — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rare to see an incumbent move to 100% new territory to run for reelection, but this solves quite a lot. Disaster averted for Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who now has #NY17 to himself. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maybe the real NY maps were the enemies we made along the way. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Be patient: the special master is still trying to figure out how to pack every Maloney in NY into one district stretching from the Upper East Side to Putnam County. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s 9pm. Do you know where your NY congressional maps are? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: Judge McAllister hints in an order that the final New York congressional map might not come today. Comment is in an order ruling… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: Dems could end up playing just as much defense as offense in California. Our preview of the 21 key June 7 House primaries to watch. https://t.co/b014pyDqvH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: state Rep. Summer Lee (D) wins the #PA12 Dem primary, defeating Steve Irwin (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats had a really strong Dec-Feb in redistricting battles. But the last few months' string of legal losses/setbacks - in AL, MD, OH, WI, NY, KS and perhaps FL (we'll see) - has been staggering. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Very good news for Mehmet Oz (R). #PASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: in another win for Rs, FL appeals court lifts lower court injunction and reinstates DeSantis-backed 20R-8D gerrymander that would cost Dems an additional North FL seat. This case clearly headed for the FL Supreme Court. https://t.co/Ih7lwB9qOX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The crazy part about NY (assuming special master map holds today) is that Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) and Jerry Nadler (D) would probably have clearer paths to reelection in #NY18 and #NY10 respectively. But by choosing to run where they live, they’ve set up brutal primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: As of now, the possibility of Democrats turning their poor midterm prospects around is not promising. New @amyewalter co… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But the most dramatic shift? A decimation of competitive seats. On the current trajectory, only 33/435 seats will have voted for Trump/Biden by 5 pts or less, down from 51/435 seats today (-35%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, because so many of the new Biden-won seats are so marginal and so many marginal Trump seats got *a lot* redder, the @CookPolitical scorecard shows Rs are actually on track to net ~2 seats from new maps alone. Overall, pretty close to a wash. https://t.co/kk9Bwpx8Hv https://t.co/TbZ3XmlPHr — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting update: by my math, if the final states shake out how we expect, 227/435 House seats will have voted for Biden under new lines, up from 224/435 today. And, 212 House seats would be more pro-Biden than the nation as a whole, up from 207 today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If NY courts adopt the special master's map, @CookPolitical would score it as a loss of one GOP seat vs. the current map. That's about half a seat better for Ds than what I expected from a court map, but three seats worse for Ds than the previously enacted gerrymander. https://t.co/2IDWsOdN2H — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you estimate this out, it points to a final margin of <1k votes either way. Perhaps Oz slightly more likely to finish ahead. But also maybe ten times closer than the 0.5% automatic recount threshold. #PASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: New maps and House race ratings are now live for Kansas and Missouri. Read @Redistrict's latest: https://t.co/8putcynGoN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NY's GOP plaintiffs are out with a recommended map (left) that would convert #NY10 into a red-leaning South Brooklyn seat and give Rs a great shot at 11/26 seats. Just goes to show that as much as Dems gripe about the special master plan (right), there are much worse scenarios. https://t.co/3A5CBXBVXf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticsReid: Bizarre fact about OR 05, where Rep. Kurt Schrader is trailing his progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner: All 5 peo… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And...now GOP-drawn gerrymanders have been upheld/enacted in KS and MO, though Dems did get a court win on one FL district (we'll see on appeal). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@leepers500 @CookPolitical *In — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*In — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Gov. Mike Parson (R) signs Missouri's next congressional map into law, locking in the current 6R-2D breakdown after a lengthy GOP stalemate. Only three states left to finalize plans: FL, NH and NY. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Progressives are on the verge of two huge victories: Summer Lee (D) in the open Pittsburgh #PA12 and Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) against Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in #OR05. It would take a miracle for either of their opponents to come back now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m a big win for Republicans, KS Supreme Court upholds the GOP legislature’s congressional map. That endangers #KS03 Rep. Sharice Davids (D), whose race starts out in Toss Up at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #OR05, I'd estimate Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) would need to win about 63% of outstanding votes to overtake Jamie McLeod-Skinner's (D) lead. But right now Schrader's only winning ~56% in the outstanding counties. McLeod-Skinner the heavy favorite now. — PolitiTweet.org