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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @nathanlgonzales: Crap. Do all the Nathans have to be on this? It's Friday afternoon. https://t.co/ikkS6ZzZ9k — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Hi, my *middle* name is Nathan...can I get in on this? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The fact that the results of people *actually voting* in the 2018 midterms implies a rather different takeaway than… https://t.co/fvyt9ZjNqJ
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @NBCNews: Analysis: Hillary Clinton got 2.9M more votes than Donald Trump in the 2016 election, but Trump comfortably prevailed in the E… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn Not disagreeing w/ that. But the shift since '16 you're describing based on polls at least theoretically takes into account some non-white growth. If white shifts alone could take it to 5 million, i suppose non-white growth patterns could take it to 6+ million. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I might look at it the other way around: a net 2.7 million more eligible non-white voters in CA & TX (vs. no net white gain) would go a long way towards a 5 million vote gap - w/ shifting white patterns exacerbating that. Tough to quantify impact of each. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
For what it's worth, I'd subtly differ here. The conditions for a 5 million vote gap exist--right now--primarily du… https://t.co/07IOlFN5qY
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Why is AZ uniquely promising for Dems among Trump-won Sun Belt states? 1) very high suburban vs. rural vote ratio, esp. compared to FL/MI/PA/WI 2) third-fastest non-white growth, behind only NV/CA 3) young professionals moving to Phoenix/Tucson 4) Trump-skeptic LDS community https://t.co/hKZv1GDzvb — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
What you're describing: precisely what happened in '16. — PolitiTweet.org
Kevin Ken Remedio @binotblabla
@Redistrict @Nate_Cohn I think it's virtually impossible for the Dem nominee to gain 1.2 million votes in CA and sl… https://t.co/NuKq5yD5dS
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The six states best-positioned to decide the 2020 outcome are still AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA & WI. But if I really had to narrow it down to the two most likely "tipping point" states, I'd say: Arizona and Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The one Sun Belt state where robust non-white growth & boom in suburban/young professionals bodes well for Dems in a tight Electoral College race: Arizona. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Meanwhile, despite its robust non-white growth, FL's trajectory is favorable to Trump b/c of 1) its above-average Hispanic support for GOP candidates and 2) migration of conservative Midwestern whites to its Gulf Coast - both factors that were on display in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn Besides CA & TX, the top 15 most rapidly-diversifying states include solidly blue states where Dems might receive millions more useless votes in 2020: CT, MD, MA NJ, NY, OR & WA. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn The 2020 nominee could expand Clinton's CA margin by 1.2 million votes & slash Trump's TX margin by 800,000 - and still not be rewarded with a single additional Electoral College vote. But the demographic transformation fueling Dems in those states isn't as present in MI/PA/WI. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn A big reason: the demographic change fueling Dems' national edge is most robust in the states that matter *the least* in the Electoral College - esp. CA & TX. https://t.co/nMd1o8sRoQ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
My latest: how Trump could lose by *5 million+* votes and still win reelection (guess @Nate_Cohn and I are thinking alike today). https://t.co/IR6Ovxhwdu — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Trump's Electoral College edge endures heading into 2020, and it could grow further--potentially allowing him to win the pre… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Plenty of parts of MA have more in common culturally w/ wide swaths of MI/WI than they have with, say, Cambridge or Amherst. — PolitiTweet.org
Josh @jflanlan
@Redistrict What does MA have in common with MI or WI? Why would they be related?
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CookPolitical: Both sides risk disaffecting suburban voters in 2020. NEW @amyewalter column: https://t.co/jYEHJqGxlM — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@TopherSpiro interesting theory, but the evidence says... https://t.co/FpeZjSPbNe — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Fact: in the 2018 "blue wave," Republicans lost 17% of their House seats but 32% of their foreign-born constituents. Democrats now represent 54% of all House seats but 76% of all foreign-born U.S. residents. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@TopherSpiro Huh? your original point was that home states sour on their sens b/c they get stale. Bernie/Markey/Leahy/Klobuchar have been in office for decades and are atop the list of the most popular senators in the nation — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Whatever you'd like to believe... https://t.co/W1ANaSfrKC — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's not just Elizabeth Warren's approval %s that are unimpressive. Fact: in *2018,* a blue wave year, she underperformed Clinton's 2016 share in 228/351 towns in Massachusetts. If you think that bodes well for her chances of outperforming Clinton in MI/PA/WI etc.... 🤷♂️🤷♀️ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @juliehdavis: NRCC Chair Tom Emmer, R-Minn., says of “send her back” chant at Trump rally: “There’s no place for that kind of talk. I do… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wisdom from @PoliticsReid: https://t.co/uegd3Kumn7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Very good preview: — PolitiTweet.org
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
Crystal Ball: Redistricting 2020 - An Early Look. GOP still holds national edge, but not as sharp of one as they di… https://t.co/gyZTEtWA3w
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This isn’t to say Harris and Warren are unelectable next fall (see: Trump’s image w/ the broader electorate at this point in ‘15). But imho, their anemic standing w/ independent voters in their home states bodes poorly for their chances of winning indies in MI/PA/WI etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@david_darmofal @harrimsa Neither. It’s that Klobuchar‘s proven ability to run ahead of Clinton (esp w/ rural voters) contrasts favorably vs. Harris/Warren’s relative weakness for purposes of winning MI/PA/WI in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@david_darmofal Not the point — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The cold reality: the two D candidates with the most recent upward momentum, Warren and Harris, sport approval ratings that are...not at all impressive, given the leans of their states. Meanwhile, the D candidate w/ the *most* demonstrated appeal is barely registering in polls. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Notable job ratings vs. ‘16 results: Warren +8 in MA (Clinton +27) Harris +13 in CA (Clinton +30) Gillibrand +12 in NY (Clinton +22) Booker +13 in NJ (Clinton +14) Sanders +30 in VT (Clinton +26) Klobuchar +26 in MN (Clinton +1) https://t.co/kZi3FEDhgO — PolitiTweet.org
