Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @InsideElections: Running for LG- is it an opportunity for women or are women just being used by men to get elected governor? @leahask… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JoshuaMironov Cambridge for 1st, then moved to Montgomery Township — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: after 29 years, I reunited today w/ Mrs. Barclay, my 1st grade teacher back in Kendall Park, NJ. Advice: if you had a teacher who encouraged your (weird) interests/talents, let them know how thankful you are for the difference they made. They don’t forget! https://t.co/I38kqBVOKY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Black Friday random thought: have always dreamt of opening up a tyrannical version of Home Depot called Home Despot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: One of the weird things about the campaign press is how it vastly, vastly—like, by an order of magnitude—overrates the i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jeremiak Dems' surge w/ college whites & decline w/ non-college whites is a pretty bad Electoral College tradeoff. Along w/ state-level differences in rates of diversification, it's a big reason Trump could win reelection while losing popular vote by 5+ million. https://t.co/IR6OvwZUOU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Full story here (h/t @Jeremiak for the graphics): https://t.co/TiVVN6w0G5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Migration of white college graduates to Dems, rather than a turnout surge, was responsible for very narrow Dem wins in Kentucky and Louisiana (on the aggregate, KY/LA Dems still backslid w/ non-college whites vs. '15). https://t.co/YZ8oVaby75 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dem gains continue to be concentrated among white voters w/ college degrees. But of the 12 places where college grads make up the highest % of eligible white voters - CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY and VA - *zero* are poised to decide the 2020 presidential race. https://t.co/sm4JGvT3zA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Recruitment Watch: Dem state Sen. Jill Schupp is expected to launch a run against GOP @RepAnnWagner in #MO02 where @dccc h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Latest for @NBCNews: Dems are making big gains in the suburbs. Here’s why that’s no guarantee they’ll beat Trump. https://t.co/TiVVN6w0G5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Those dismissing the possibility of a contested Dem convention do so at their own peril. It’s going to evolve between now and Iowa, but four candidates in double digits (and no one else that close) is pretty much a recipe for...a contested convention. https://t.co/SUWzVTLdXg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: My colleague @clairecm talked to voters who said they voted Trump in '16, Dem in '18, and now say they'll vote Trump again i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lol at everyone taking this tweet/article seriously. but as always, congrats to @thehill on some great clicks — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hate to break it to Dems but pretty sure this isn't going to be the ticket https://t.co/Bf3StfjecB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This has Howard Schultz written all over it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s tempting to think of 2018 as an across-the-board “Blue Wave.” But a fact that seems quite relevant now: Republicans *gained* two Senate seats. And, the Trump Loyalist count has risen even more (no McCain, Flake, Corker, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Barely ever look at prediction markets, but Trump at 41 cents strikes me as fairly low (as does Klobuchar at one cent). Bloomberg/Yang at 7 cents each strikes me as absurdly high. https://t.co/zDJXlGo0eF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Demographically, WI has the lowest non-white share of the three, the highest share of non-college whites AND it’s the least metropolitan. It’s basically an amalgam of Trump’s best-trending groups. Whatever the 2020 result, there’s a good chance the Dem % will be higher in AZ. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have long believed (even aside from this poll) that Wisconsin will be the toughest state for Dems to get back of the MI/PA/WI trio. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: a big reason pundits *overrated* the chances of a 2016 R contested convention was that the calendar was dominated by winner-take-all, allowing Trump to take a massive delegate lead. On the D side, it’s *all* proportional (over 15%). That poses a much bigger risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s still not *probable,* but the recipe for a contested convention is a scenario where 3-5 candidates are still viable and winning strong delegate shares on Super Tuesday. And, superdelegates still get a vote on 2nd+ ballots. How would that go over with Bernie’s folks? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The chances of a contested Milwaukee - AKA Dems still fighting amongst themselves 3.5 months before facing Trump - have gone back up considerably in the past month. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For reference, #NY12's share of adults w/ college degrees (that's Upper East Side, Long Island City, Greenpoint): 71.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Vermont's share of adults w/ college degrees: 36.2% #NY21's share of adults w/ college degrees: 22.7% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Has Stefanik grandstanded at impeachment hearings? Absolutely. Will it cost her back home? Not as long as #NY21 has more in common culturally w/ northern Minnesota/Michigan than Brooklyn or Chappaqua. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There were plenty of personally popular, moderate R House members who got crushed in 2018 b/c Trump was radioactive in their districts (see Orange Co. & North Jersey). Stefanik (R) crushed Cobb (D) by 14% (btw, Cobb spent $1.5m), mostly b/c #NY21 warmed to Trump before she did. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) beat Tedra Cobb (D) 56%-42% in 2018, a terrific Dem year. And the voters who stayed home there in 2018? Overwhelmingly whites w/o college degrees, aka Trump’s base. There are 15-20 legitimately vulnerable R House seats. #NY21 isn’t remotely one of them. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The political reality - as much as Dems wish this weren’t the case - is that #NY21 Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) is well-aligned with her North Country district, which twice voted for Obama before voting for Trump by *14%* in 2016. She’s not vulnerable in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman By my calc the #LA05 as drawn above would have a @CookPolitical PVI of D+6. Republicans don't currently hold any districts with a PVI greater than D+3. — PolitiTweet.org