Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big win for Trump and loss for ag commodity groups as former WH physician Ronny Jackson (R) on the verge of defeating Josh Winegarner (R) in runoff for open #TX13. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Upset in the making in #AL02, as state Rep. Barry Moore (R) on verge of defeating self-funding moving company owner Jeff Coleman (R) after trailing 38%-20% in the initial primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bigger concern here: massive potential for confusion on Election Night & doubts in the weeks following considering most of the voting public - and even much of the media - has little understanding of how a vote count actually works. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.s. This is a pretty dismal special election showing for Rs. Trump carried #NY27 by 25% but Jacobs (R)’s 8% lead over McMurray (D) could narrow even further to ~6% when Niagara Co. finishes its absentee count. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Need proof we’re headed for a massive divide between Election Day results & absentees? Look no further than last month’s special in #NY27 (a seat Trump won by 25%), where Chris Jacobs (R) led 70%-28% on election night but now leads just 53%-45% w/ most absentees counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actually think this might be more effective w/ persuadable voters than any of the shiny ads w/ Trump footage and dramatic music — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Proof reforms don’t guarantee less gerrymandered maps: this hypothetical OH map would split fewer counties than the current 12R-4D plan & avoid splitting Cleveland/Cincinnati to comply w/ 2018’s ballot initiative, but would likely result in a 13R-2D (!) delegation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I suspect Candace Valenzuela's story is going to be getting a lot more national attention if she wins the #TX24 runoff. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just as 2016 was all about remaining white working class Dems massively defecting to Trump, at the moment 2020 is poised to be all about remaining white professional Rs massively defecting to Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let’s be real about what’s driving Biden’s margin relative to 2016: white professionals & white seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PeterHamby KS voted for Trump by 20.4% in 2016 and AZ by 3.5% so I’d pretty much bet my life this won’t happen — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This kind of attack isn't resonating w/ voters for the same reason Dems making fun of Trump's bad spelling doesn't resonate. Voters don't want their politicians to be perfectly pre-programmed robots and these kind of flaws are priced into their expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, Biden's not losing Latinos, just winning them by ~31% vs. Clinton's ~40% margin. But: 1) Trump's made up some ground among FL Cubans since 2016, when wounds w/ Rubio were still raw 2) Top issue for Latino voters is economy, where Trump's numbers are still strongest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the most fascinating battleground state right now is Florida, where there's strong evidence Trump has marginally improved among Latinos since '16 but Biden might be reaping the largest benefit from his overperformance w/ seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Main takeaway: Biden's big lead is mostly attributable to a huge anti-Trump shift in college+ whites since 2016. Biden actually doing slightly worse w/ non-whites than Clinton did in 2016, especially w/ Latino voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins ('16 CCES): Non-college whites: +21 (+24) Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9) African-Americans: -78 (-80) Latinos: -31 (-40) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Electoral College rating changes at @CookPolitical: GA: Lean R to Toss Up #ME02: Likely R to Lean R #NE02: Toss Up to Lean D PA: Toss Up to Lean D WI: Toss Up to Lean D This puts Biden over the 270 EV threshold, to 279. Analysis from @amyewalter: https://t.co/pH60fQcMv2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Very preliminary vote totals from Ocean & Camden seem to back this up in #NJ02. This would be former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D)'s wife facing off against party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NJ03 primary to face Rep. Andy Kim (D), construction executive David Richter (R) takes a big lead w/ Ocean Co. votes. Can Kate Gibbs (R) make it up in her home base of Burlington Co.? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered ground w/ Latinos in FL since 2016, hence R wins there in 2018. And overall, demog change is still only a small component of Trump's weaker standing relative to 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's 2016 margin by more than half, from 3.5% to 1.6%. In GA, demographic change alone might cut Trump's 2016 margin from 5.1% to 3.5%. In NC, from 3.7% to 2.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip: Florida (29 EVs) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) ...based on demographic change alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including: AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%) FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%) TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When even Lindsey Graham starts repudiating Trump, you know it’s...oh wait, he just made it through his primary and was willing to say anything to survive all along b/c he doesn’t have a life outside of being a senator. This isn’t hard, folks. https://t.co/4d61krh5ST — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What should really frighten down-ballot Rs: Trump is trailing Biden by 7-9% more than he lost the popular vote in 2016, but because there are so many urban cores where Trump had little room to fall in the first place, the drop is likely even larger in swing suburban districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: .@Redistrict writes: “What Trump's campaign might not grasp is that in the modern polarized era of American elections, T… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@randOmuos nice try but no. https://t.co/3Lt9PsPcu6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, the Clinton campaign badly misread the Electoral map. This time, it's the Trump campaign that might be wasting millions on states that aren't relevant to who wins. https://t.co/nOKnORulLY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Susan Rice just made a pretty decent case for her VP selection on @MeetThePress w/ @mitchellreports. — PolitiTweet.org