Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Sure. It's the OH buy I'd make first if I were them. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It's also not like the Biden camp is making big buys in Columbus, Cincinnati or Cleveland right now. You might be surprised by how often we see House/Sen campaigns make expensive buys to reach just one or two small counties, though I rarely think its a good ROI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Toledo and Youngstown are also the two Ohio media markets that cover counties in Michigan and Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty much all the evidence suggests these kinds of coded appeals actually backfire the most with, you guessed it, suburban whites. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jmartNYT: Read ⁦@brianmrosenthal⁩ ⁦@PatriciaMazzei⁩ on ⁦@RepValDemings⁩ > https://t.co/b9I6IgQcPI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Concerns about "shy Trump voters"—which don't have a lot of support in the evidence—stem from the same place as the impu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JakeSherman: 🚨🚨 Rep. LOUIE GOHMERT has covid. Tested positive this morning. Has NOT been wearing a mask on the Hill, and defended tg… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Five weeks later, it appears Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) has defeated Suraj Patel (D) by ~3,700 votes in the #NY12 primary. But 12k+ absentees out of 65k+ cast were invalidated (mostly for being late/lacking postmark) and I still don't see new results posted by an official source. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Trump campaign off the air in Michigan is a telling indication of where the race is at now https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRubinBlogger I'm not so sure about that. Will have more on this in an article later this week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@StuPolitics Pretty common and widely accepted term, if you ask anyone from the Dakotas https://t.co/U4EFYZo243 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One crosstab in the Colby poll I'm having a hard time getting my head around: Gideon leading women 47-45 and trailing men 41-43, but up 44-39 overall. #MESEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm actually not so sure this is a massive setback for Republicans. Will have more on this in an article later this week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticsReid: One of the leading candidates running for DNI chief John Ratcliffe’s old open seat in Congress was killed Saturday when h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Via the latest ABC/Post poll, 51% of Dems plan to vote by mail vs. just 20% of Republicans, thanks to Trump's attacks. That's unprecedented. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If 7.3% absentees were rejected in a November swing state, it could conceivably cost Dems up to 2% of statewide margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s actual strategic blunder: wasting money in states that aren’t close to the tipping point in 2020, such as NM, OH, IA or TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On what planet are FL and NC “states Trump won so handily in 2016 that most analysts wouldn’t call them swing states in 2020?” Trump won them by 1.2% and 3.7% respectively in 2016. How did this story make it past @bpolitics editors? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lol...now do Obama 2012. This isn’t the problem. https://t.co/82EPINpgbT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Basically, the additional uncertainty introduced into an election forecast by COVID-19 falls into two buckets: 1) It me… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris I appreciate how much work goes into building a model like yours and sure, I’d be happy to discuss offline. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @daveweigel: Folks, the new TRAILER is up, with a report from Detroit about the coming "squad" primary battles - Ilhan Omar and Rashida… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AmyEGardner Not referring to intentional voter suppression. I’m referring to administrative dysfunction, delays and voter inexperience leading to ballots that, at least by existing laws/rules, would not be counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. a reminder to those who believe making it really hard for your vote to count is the speciality of GOP-controlled states/counties: the highest reported absentee rejection rate so far in the COVID era has been in...New York City. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I think #1 is the least likely, but #3 and #4 are quite plausible. Overall a comeback is unlikely, but far from impossible given that Trump only needs to move the needle 3-5% points nationally to get back within range of a win. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

100 days out, Trump basically needs some combo of the following... 1) shift voters' focus away from COVID 2) drive Biden's negatives way up 3) high absentee ballot rejection rates in key states 4) big advantage in Electoral College vs. popular vote ...or he's toast. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Trump were to recover to the point the EC/popular gap were to start mattering again (say, within 3-4% of Biden), it would likely be recovery w/ the kind of voters he won in ‘16 (older/non-college whites). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, it’s surprising that that there’s not more of an emphasis on early *in-person* voting for those at lower disease risk as a means of relieving the burden on many states’ 1) strained Election Day infrastructure and 2) strained absentee ballot regimes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden's current lead would almost certainly withstand much higher-than-usual rejection rates of absentee ballots. But, even setting aside the prospect of the Electoral College race tightening, think about how many Sen/House races are likely to come down to <2% margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The absentee rejection rates from pandemic primaries (4-8% in KY, 20% in NYC) are many times higher than in past elections and should be setting off alarm bells for Dems. No doubt postmarks/signatures will be intensely litigated. But Trump thrives on chaos/murkiness. — PolitiTweet.org