Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RachelBitecofer Care to explain why your forecast is really bullish for Dems in #NY21, #FL18, #OH10, #TX03 and #IL13 but not many other districts with similar partisan baselines/demographic characteristics? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: Just a bizarre ad from this pro-Trump Super PAC. Beyond blatantly trying to stir racial resentment between Black and L… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: One of the more interesting parts of my podcast convo w @redistrict -- his expectation that big wins by Dems in 2020 won't… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Some context: in Feb. 2019, House Rs put out a list of 55 target districts. As of the latest FEC reports, the median D in those districts has $2.6 million on hand to just $414k for the median R - a six to one advantage. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @davidaxelrod: Despite @realDonaldTrump’s yammering about mail-in voting, it’s @JoeBiden who may have the most to lose here-not due to f… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: New House rating changes: #AKAL Likely R to Lean R #AR02 Solid R to Likely R #FL26 Lean D to Toss Up #GA06 Toss Up to Le… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Of the issues that could impact the election, none is as hard to predict than how millions of voters will physically cast t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: six more House rating changes, including five in Democrats' direction. Full analysis ($): https://t.co/9g4jelyY4D https://t.co/LDM4fiDPhJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Six House rating changes coming later this morning at @CookPolitical, all but one in the same direction. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

True story: the first ever ballot I ever received when I was 18 was an extremely rare 2002 NJ absentee w/ Bob Torricelli’s name printed on it (later they sent me a new one with Lautenberg’s name). I saved the first one & have always wondered what it would go for on EBay. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@grace_panetta At first I read this as “casual pollster.” I know a few of those...oh well. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Valid — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remarkably, Schweikert has barely had to face any negative ads the past eight years. That’s about to change in a big way. #AZ06 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the political arc of Donald Trump feels kinda similar to...Jesse Ventura's in MN. Huge upset w/ <50% of vote after pundits underestimate desire for a non-politician. But voters ultimately tire of fights w/ media, dysfunction & skipping work to color-commentate XFL games. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: As Trump senses his grip on GOP voters slipping (and talk w/ strategists and well as public polling shows this happening),… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in the past decade alone, 7 Electoral College contests, 12 Senate races and 71 House races have been decided by <2%. So no matter the size of the "blue wave" in Nov., this is a moderately big deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now a few caveats: 1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though #NY27 came close 2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states 3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine a hypothetical swing state where 42% of the vote is cast by mail and there's an extreme partisan gap between VBM (80% Biden) and in-person (70% Trump). Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit @alflinn): https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS https://t.co/0TUj7xy1Ni — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The rejection rates for VBM in 2020 primaries have been many times higher than OR/WA/CO b/c of 1) ill-equipped and understaffed election offices struggling with floods of requests for mail ballots and 2) voters inexperienced w/ casting them. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"The [VBM] rejection rates we've seen in the primaries have almost uniformly been above historic ranges," per Dem election super-lawyer @marceelias. "I take Republicans at face value, that they don't want people to vote by mail." https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"If I were advising someone at lower health risk, I would say think about early in person voting," per Stewart of MIT, who estimates the true rate of uncounted mail ballot in 2016 was around 4%. "But go early in the process and don't wait until the last minute." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"Voting by mail is twice as involved administratively than voting in person," per @cstewartiii. "If problems arise in mail voting, it's twice as hard to correct them than in person. And first-time voters are more likely to have their ballots rejected." https://t.co/cQOh61LiZS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nedfoley: 1) Congress sets date for presidential & congressional elections; 2) 20th Amendment to U.S. Constitution requires current ter… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, Biden's leads nationally & in core battlegrounds are robust enough to withstand unusually high mail ballot rejection rates. But the race could still tighten. And in the past 20 years... 7 Electoral College 12 Senate 71 House ...races have been decided by <2%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The perfect catastrophe Dems are worried about: 1) record-smashing demand for mail ballots 2) unprecedented polarization of mail (D) vs. Election Day (R) votes 3) overwhelmed & understaffed election offices 4) absentee voter inexperience/error 5) counting delays/legal chaos — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

[new article] Trump's attacks on mail voting could depress his base. But he could also be setting a trap that could cost Democrats up to 2 points. 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Trump suggesting delaying the election (he can't do this w/o congressional approval) seems to be one of his more obvious attem… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, Lenawee Co., MI (served by the Toledo market) cast 43,180 major party votes in 2016. Trump won MI by 10,704. Mercer Co., PA (served by the Youngstown market) cast 50,277 major party votes in 2016. Trump won PA by 44,292. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, Lenawee Co., MI (served by the Toledo market) cast 43,180 major party votes in 2016. Trump won MI by 10,704. Mercer Co., PA (served by the Youngstown market) cast 50,277 major party votes in 2016. Trump won PA by 44,292 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Internal polling showing #GA14 GOP runoff competitive... — PolitiTweet.org