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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R), who's charged with voter fraud, starts out as the underdog in the #KS02 GOP primary. He's trailing state treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) 47%-28% in the very early going. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Strong start for grocery chain heir/Army veteran Peter Meijer (R), who's out to a 51%-25% lead over Lynn Afendoulis (R) in #MI03 for GOP nod in Justin Amash (I)'s open seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, came across a GOP poll in a suburban, red-state district Trump carried by double digits in 2016. Biden +8. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my lifetime, 4/5 presidents have been reelected and the one exception happened when I was eight. Sometimes I wonder if the current political moment feels more abnormal to me than to someone born 20 years earlier. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

None of this is to say that Dems don't have more room to fall in a lot of heavily "Trump Democrat" counties. They do. But the bottom line: we can't draw a lot of strong conclusions about 2020 based solely on party registration trends. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Basically, what's happening: in many red counties in FL/PA, thousands of registered Ds who voted Trump in '16 have officially switched to R or, ahem, exited the electorate. But on balance, *new* registrants have skewed much more D/unaffiliated than R. https://t.co/p2UwRU7cjL — PolitiTweet.org

Tom Bonier @tbonier

Start with PA, Dems have a 15 point advantage among those who have registered since Nov of 2016. https://t.co/DTgaZPY3NP

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This @Axios story appears to take the Trump campaign's narrative at face value, failing to account for the difference between *net* registration change (which has long favored GOP in FL, PA, etc.) and *new* registrations (which favor Dems). https://t.co/Zkbm8mAMyX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reality check...here was #KY06's primary turnout in 2018: Democrats 100,419 Republicans 48,372 November result: Amy McGrath (D) 144,736 Andy Barr (R) 154,468 And FWIW, #KY06 voted for Trump by 15% in 2016. The entire state voted for Trump by 30%. — PolitiTweet.org

Naiem @Nemoe_

@Politidope Here's Kentucky senate primary turnout Democrats 544,062 Republicans 413,815 Unbelievable, Mitch sh… https://t.co/BwVtBvcwpw

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And before you go saying "there are four times as many people in Chester than Fayette!"...there are a lot more PA voters who live in places like Fayette than Chester. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not making this up: so far in 2020, party registration switches in Chester Co., PA (median income $96k) have run 83% pro-D. In Fayette Co., PA (median income $44k), they've run 82% pro-R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, it's possible - even likely - that the universe of voters *exiting* the PA electorate is both: 1)… https://t.co/JBX2uhqYDB

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're having a hard time wrapping your head around this concept, a good example is Fayette Co. in southwestern PA: In Nov. '16, its voter registration was 58% D, 33% R. It voted 64%-33% for Trump. Today, its voter registration has narrowed to 51% D, 39% R. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, it's possible - even likely - that the universe of voters *exiting* the PA electorate is both: 1) more heavily Dem in party registration 2) more heavily pro-Trump ...than the universe of voters entering. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, what's going on in PA? Likely a continuation of long-term trend of Trump-voting registered Ds dying out or formally switching to R. Per @tbonier, total *new* registrations since Nov. '16: +415k D +282k R +226k Other — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Net PA voter registration change, Nov. '15-Nov. '16: +321k R +244k D +85k Other Net change, Nov. '19-now: +72k R +42k D -2k Other — PolitiTweet.org

Nick Field @nick_field90

"A post-primary dead cat bounce or the first sign of a comeback for the PA GOP?" https://t.co/czXdPhICyF

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s almost as if Dems’ anti-McConnell fervor is better channeled through non-KY Senate races. — PolitiTweet.org

Joe Sonka 😐 @joesonka

New ⁦@MorningConsult⁩ poll shows Mitch McConnell with large 53-36 lead over Amy McGrath in U.S. Senate race… https://t.co/y5RzZDiVLJ

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @joesonka: New ⁦@MorningConsult⁩ poll shows Mitch McConnell with large 53-36 lead over Amy McGrath in U.S. Senate race https://t.co/FjoU… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, NYC's election board dropped 32k ballots off to be mailed to voters *one day* before the primary. At current funding levels, we're on pace for many more stories like this in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Brigid Bergin @brigidbergin

@USPS @Ali_Najmi @BOENYC While responding to Judge Torres about how the @USPS worked with the @BOENYC to get ballot… https://t.co/ibcsuGVCDz

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A microcosm of the legal drama we're headed for this fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Brigid Bergin @brigidbergin

#BREAKING: Judge Torres orders the @NYSBOE to direct all local Boards of Elections to count absentee ballots lackin… https://t.co/RiPvrCBReY

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe p.s. Fun fact about my time at the Crystal Ball (swear I've never told @kkondik or @JMilesColeman this): My writing process was to hit up Raising Cane's (which was new to Cville then!), bring it back to the office, and write my articles between like 10pm-3am. No joke. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe p.s. Fun fact about my time at the Crystal Ball (don't think I've never told @kkondik or @JMilesColeman this): My writing process was to hit up Raisin Cane's (which was new to Cville then!), bring it back to the office, and write my articles between like 10pm-3am. No joke. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated Just a Typo
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe As the only person who has ever worked for both Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, I'll take it. https://t.co/K0Xc7eBX9Y — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn And FWIW, Biden still being unsure what to do at this stage doesn't mean the process is "off" or "unusual." Most recent nominees probably hadn't fully made up their minds at this stage. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A million potentially valid theories as to what’s going on but I’ll throw out one: Biden initially wanted Klobuchar, but that ship sailed a long time ago and he’s still not sure what to do. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: News orgs MUST prepare themselves and viewers for realities of election night. One easy step: have Sec of States give estim… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject Except CO is no longer a battleground state — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BresPolitico: Rep. Sanford Bishop allegedly misused more than $90,000 in campaign and official funds. https://t.co/4PJ6Y512f9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ethansmith01 @RachelBitecofer Except #NY21 has really low college attainment and #TX03 is the most college-educated district of any seat still held by an R. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The truth is that Schweikert has been in ethics hot water for years, but he still won by 10% in 2018 b/c Dems almost entirely failed to run paid communication against him. #AZ06 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh I’m a bit surprised Dems aren’t on the air to try to define Schweikert early, before the PHX market gets 110% saturated with election ads. #AZ06 — PolitiTweet.org

John Bresnahan @BresPolitico

The House Ethics Cmte reprimands @RepDavid and fines him $50,000 for misusing official funds. This is a very seriou… https://t.co/G1scyCLyIr

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It could use an overhaul to say the least. — PolitiTweet.org

Shannon Pettypiece @spettypi

Trump campaign pauses TV ad spending for 'review' of messaging strategy w ⁦@bkamisar⁩ https://t.co/OtrmpDPoE1

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated