Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @albrgr: 🤔 🤔 🤔 https://t.co/kMeJh3MVSV https://t.co/XTYcApL4Zj https://t.co/aE2VqqzPJ7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

All of these naturally skew Dem. And a recent rise in the “Blue Shift” is correlated w/ a bigger urban/rural divide and more modes of voting. It’s critical to prepare Americans for the “Blue Shift.” But it’s also lazy to portray it as shrouded in mystery. They’re valid ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The“Blue Shift” really isn’t all that mysterious or “little understood.” Late-counted ballots tend to be from: 1) urban counties w/ tons more ballots to count 2) provisional voters who skew transient/non-white 3) same-day registrants who skew younger https://t.co/JGDqAkqFKr — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kathrynw5 this was a joke — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're a VP finalist and you don't want to get noticed on your way to your Delaware interview, why not just fly commercial. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@HotlineJosh Ballot applications, not ballots...pretty big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Any chance we can get @jonathanvswan to ask for the evidence that dogs and dead people are registered to vote/applying for absentee ballots in Fairfax County? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So the most pressing issue confronting the country right now is 500k absentee ballot applications accidentally labeled w/ a return address of Fairfax City instead Fairfax County? Which probably won't affect anyone's ability to get an absentee ballot anyway? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here would be my estimates for 2020's electorate based on demographic change since '16 alone... 10 closest '16 battleground states: 46% non-college white 30% college+ white 24% non-white Other 40 states + DC: 39% non-college white 32% college+ white 29% non-white — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pollsters like GWU/Lake/Tarrance, who find a massive partisan divide between college/non-college whites but refuse to re-weight a national sample that's 47% (!) white college grads, are offering us a look at where the 2020 race might stand...inside a Whole Foods Market. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breakdown of the 2016 electorate, by my estimate... 10 closest battleground states: 49% non-college white 29% college+ white 22% non-white Other 40 states + DC: 42% non-college white 30% college+ white 28% non-white Bottom line: non-college whites hold a *lot* of sway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nope. College grads were 39.6% of the *actual* electorate in 2016. They were only 31.8% of the *eligible* electorate. Sure, the bachelors+ share will be more like 42-43% in 2020, but anything over 50% in a poll is absurd. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1. This poll was national, not battleground states 2. In 2016, college grads were just 39.6% of the electorate, per Census (this poll has an absurd 63%) 3. Non-college whites are *overrepresented* in the battleground states — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Polling malpractice... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@daveweigel You also have to consider how asking about a "fracking ban" would poll - the data on that wording has b… https://t.co/fO6f9VXyXp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: House Rs raced to disavow Marjorie Greene after learning she made a slew of racist comments But there’s been no majo… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe Thanks for reading @CookPolitical. ;) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Odds Biden would try to solve this problem by simultaneously naming Whitmer for VP and Harris for AG? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If 77% of Dems on Twitter wouldn’t be too upset about it, I suspect the number would be even higher IRL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kind of awkward if Duckworth, Raimondo, Klobuchar, John Edwards and Jim Clyburn were all at that dinner too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*Black. Sorry, still breaking old habits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you’re a Biden voter and he picks Whitmer instead of a woman of color (but a win also means MI gets its first black governor & Biden promises to nominate a black woman to SCOTUS), that would be: — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How is it that no politico obsessively checking flight trackers flagged a plane from Lansing, MI to Delaware Coastal Airport in the past five days? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the most damning reality for House Republicans is that three months out - and with a historic Dem freshman class - there’s not a single House seat that’s a surefire GOP pickup. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Making sure you differentiate between Fairfax City/County, Roanoke City/County, etc. is pretty much Virginia politics 101 and this Dem-backed outfit utterly failed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, pretty much everyone got these, and the lack of explanation that voters still have the option to vote by mail, early in person or on EDay is bound to confuse a lot of people. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: @CookPolitical's updated House ratings... Solid/Likely/Lean D: 221 Solid/Likely/Lean R: 186 Toss Up: 28 Full analysis ($): https://t.co/YbXJKJiuZU https://t.co/6ZVaG6IITX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. Fun fact: these 7 districts have an average of 2.3 Whole Foods Markets, compared to 0.5 for the average GOP-held district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Voter fraud isn't common, but you know what is? Human error in election administration (voter/precinct misassignment, etc.). Overworked, understaffed election offices & voter confusion mean we'll be hearing a lot more stories like this one in November. https://t.co/Sm1513zCjc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, all of these GOP-held seats are in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column, with the exception of Plano's #TX03, where Taylor (R) still has a big cash advantage in a district Trump carried by 14% in 2020 (down from Romney +30% in 2012). — PolitiTweet.org