Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this isn't a GOP play for anti-Trump suburban Rs, I'm not sure what is. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mitchellreports: .@Redistrict: "(Seeing) multiple polls out of districts Romney carried by 15+ & Trump 10+ in 2016 where Joe Biden is n… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: 2020 polls depict an electorate polarizing along gender lines, slightly depolarizing along racial lines and whites polarized about the same along educational lines. And, Biden has made progress w/ critical battleground groups (seniors, non-college whites, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2020, final polls showed a 20 point gender gap: men Trump +6, women Clinton +14. Exit polls pegged ultimate gap at 24 points. Today's gender canyon is a gargantuan 27 points: men Trump +2, women Biden +25. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only group where we're seeing improvement in Trump's margin vs. '16? Hispanic voters. Today, live-interview average has Trump down 27 points, vs. 38 points per @UpshotNYT's average of final '16 polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix. A few breathtaking splits: - Biden now +25 w/ women - Biden now +10 w/ seniors https://t.co/XCbybZJdJu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Despite all the hype about KS, this feels about right. Trump is underperforming his '16 margin by about 14 points - that's pretty staggering and a larger than average swing! But...it's still Kansas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @QuinnipiacPoll national (LVs): Biden 51% Trump 41% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, the scenario above might also be *underestimating* the potential for nonwhite Dem turnout growth in the Sun Belt. In short, not hard to argue today's polls are closer to a Biden 400+ EV landslide (GA, TX, OH, IA) than Trump winning 270+. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, the huge caveat: our swingometer is designed to estimate the impact of uniform demographic swings, which never truly happen. There's strong evidence Biden is winning back plenty of non-college whites in the Upper Midwest, but not so many in the Deep South (FL/GA/TX etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, here's what @CookPolitical's swingometer spits out when you plug in the demographic splits from the curr… https://t.co/vDsmNNw81R — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*2,437,417 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: more people have now early voted in North Carolina (2,4317,317) than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in North Carolina (2,362,631) in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kaitlancollins: The FBI is about to hold an abruptly scheduled press conference on election security. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have tried my best to raise awareness about PA's "naked ballot" issue. Would also be just fine if I never saw Jeff Toobin or Rudy Giuliani on TV ever again. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Frankly, even if there was a big early turnout edge in heavily Dem counties vs. Trump counties (as there is in many other states), it would still be hazardous to draw conclusions from the data. We know the EDay vote is just going to be much friendlier to Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Frankly, even if there was a big early turnout edge in heavily Dem counties vs. Trump counties (as there is in many places), it would still be hazardous to draw conclusions from the data. We know the EDay vote is just going to be much friendlier to Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast: Clinton-won counties: 60% Trump-won counties: 59% Another reminder you shouldn't read a partisan advantage from huge turnout. Both parties' bases highly motivated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: NEW: 12 House rating changes in #CA50 #FL26 #GA06 #IL13 #IL17 #KS03 #MI03 #MN01 #MN02 #NC09 #VA02 #WA03 Read @Redistri… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical House ratings with 13 days to go: Solid/Likely/Lean D: 228 Solid/Likely/Lean R: 181 Toss Up: 26 Latest outlook: Democratic net gain of 5-15 seats. https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga https://t.co/kicYCjmLSq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Back in 2018, our first poll of KS-03 showed Davids up 8 and I thought--that can't be right. Two years later she's 'safe Dem… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: 12 late-breaking House rating changes, all but one in Democrats’ direction. Read full analysis: https://t.co/2GN5ycoQz2 https://t.co/TpcnkgB4AK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical Ps of course I do maintain this data in my personal spreadsheet — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical problem is the districts that run counter to type; e.g. #VA10 has same number of WF/CB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've got a dozen more late-breaking House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical tomorrow morning. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @rickhasen: This conversation between @Redistrict and @ThePlumLineGS is well worth your time. Better than just looking at polling averag… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Democrats gain in Georgia Senate races as the presidential contest remains deadlocked, per new NYT/Siena poll: Biden 45, Tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Total Trump votes cast in TX in 2016: 4,685,047 Total 2020 votes cast in TX as of last night: 4,706,398 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(Disclaimer: this suggests voter interest/intensity is way higher than in the past and we're headed for massive turnout - as we are everywhere - but not much beyond that.) — PolitiTweet.org