Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @abc15: Ken Bennett, senate liaison overseeing Maricopa County election audit, to resign https://t.co/CH0ltRVcqo #abc15 https://t.co/G5a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DKThomp: Nearly 50% of Americans now say they have less than four "close friendships.” In 1990, just 27% said the same. https://t.co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

though one's at least accurate https://t.co/CDy74BUo60 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/Ei2T9BdVOI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach yeah i think that explains a lot of the difference — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach and it does seem to me that it is easiest to avoid this trap, as the OP noted, by being implicitly or explicitly committed to a primary method of universal and easily accessible voting (like VBM or eday) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach i think that more methods is pretty causally and inevitably linked to more precinct consolidation, but yes you can solve it either way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach (the harris study appears to show that voters reported longer lines at consolidated voting centers than local precincts) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach it's also plausible to me bc so many states, not just GA, have used the decline in in-person election day voting to rationalize fewer voting centers and precinct consolidation (hence why i went there from the harris ex) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach it's also plausible to me bc so many states, not just GA, have used the decline in in-person early voting to rationalize fewer voting centers and precinct consolidation (hence why i went there from the harris ex) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach GA story is complicated, but i don't think it's completely confounded. afaik, the clearest explanation for GA lines is failure to expand the voting places in proportion with population.. if so, i think the various administrative burden challenges could be a relevant factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach why? at worst, i think these states manage get away with providing multiple mediocre options by maintaining the appearance of easy access. at best, i think maintaining so many good-not-great voting models is part of the problem, by stretching burdens on both voters and admin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach it does not seem to me that these states do better. by my estimate, these states often have longer lines tbh, but that may be regional/demographic correlation (multi-method states often in south) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach at worst, i think these states manage to get away with providing multiple mediocre options while maintaining the appearance of easy access. at best, i think maintaining so many good-not-great voting models is part of the problem by stretching burdens on both voters and admin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach there is, in contrast, a class of state that does not have a single method that's plainly the primary, universal, easily accessible form of voting. I'd put GA in that category — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach i think WA is pretty fairly characterized as a universal VBM state, which is what i said? and the in person options it requires (one per county) plainly assume that it's not supposed to be the main and easily accessible form of voting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach or as partly summarized by this report https://t.co/IzUKEQTOOn https://t.co/9YH7nJpVFX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach i think it is also plainly true that states with multi-method voting don't have shorter lines, and there's not really much empirical evidence to support the idea that more early voting decreases lines, for ex — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach there's no question that budgetary, volunteer, and space limitations figure prominently on implementing reforms to reduce lines and replace burdens. i think it is plainly true that adding additional vote methods stretches that burden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach WA/CO are the 'universal VBM' models i'm thinking of here, to be clear. but i think the interaction between multi-method voting and higher burden isn't complicated at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Nickgb precinct consolidation is basically an inevitable function of multi-method voting, unless you want to spend a lot more money. which maybe you do! but this trade off keeps getting made! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Nickgb they do create burdens on voters, like longer lines and longer commutes, which winds up affecting voter experience. they also create more opportunities to vote over weeks of early voting, which has a countervailing effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And so you wind up with a place like Georgia, where voters seem to have every option to vote and yet all of them manage to be more burdensome on voters than just having a large number of in-person on Election Day voting precincts, like PA circa 2016 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's increasingly hard not to wonder whether the creative multi-method voting options in between universal VBM and in-person Election Day create as many new burdens on voters and election administrators as they alleviate https://t.co/FRG49IMjkU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @kkondik (this is not quite the same as an argument that the nonpartisan map is *better* for the GOP than the gerrymander, by the way, as clearly 8/11 are not safe Dem seats. but they may hold fewer seats today as a result of the map) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @kkondik and i think you can see that possibility fairly clearly on the earlier cited wolf map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @kkondik to be clear though, i do think there's a case that MI is a GOP underperformance of the nonpartisan baseline, at least in terms of total seats, since we do know the Ds ultimately flip 8/11, while there's inherent uncertainty (and thus GOP upside) about 9/5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @PoliticsWolf this version of the wolf map had a chance to yield more seats for the gop in 2020, for ex https://t.co/npEX0GLuVy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @PoliticsWolf distinct chance that Michigan GOP would have done better on this iteration on the Wolf map, for ex https://t.co/npEX0GLuVy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @PoliticsWolf though i do suspect kildee would have hung on, given his margin in 2020, even on a tough-for-dems map — PolitiTweet.org