Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin @LPDonovan afghanistan, otoh, strikes me as an easy case. biden's approval was fundamentally stable, if in modest secular decline. then the withdraw was a disaster and he got -30 ratings on an issue that dominated coverage for two weeks and his ratings crashed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin @LPDonovan katrina's a tough case to unangle, since everything was plainly already bad by 8/06 and bush's approval was already quite low (and didn't drop post-katrina) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin @LPDonovan that is quite a bit different from katrina, which had essentially no effect on bush's already terrible approval rating — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin @LPDonovan afghanistan could do permanent damage--no doubt. but i think it's important to be clear that afghanistan is the source of the damage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan the idea that his approval today (as opposed to on 8/15 + extrapolation or whatever) is the natural state is nothing more than assertion--and a tough one given that the public has rendered an overwhelmingly negative judgment on a super high-profile news story since then — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes i agree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's approval rating had been fundamentally stable, if in secular decline as honeymoons fade. Then the Afghanistan withdraw was, in the judgment of the public, something of a disaster and his approval rating tanked. This isn't very complicated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's rating on 8/15--the day Kabul fell--was still +7 on the FiveThirtyEight tracker. It's now -2.5 and that's probably generous. Either way, it's a net-10 pt shift in ~2 weeks; it's an obvious and significant discontinuity from the longer term trend https://t.co/69eO7hwLrG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's fair to point out that there are other factors--delta, the economy, the end of a honeymoon--weighing down Biden's ratings, but I think it's a little too cute to argue that the recent decline in his rating isn't mainly 'about' Afghanistan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @philipaklein: My take: "Manchin Isn’t Going To Kill The Bill" https://t.co/H2aIROJvmR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yet in the same poll, 60 percent of voters thought abortion should be legal in most or all case, while 40 percent said it should be illegal in most or all cases — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the 2020 election, 3 percent of voters said they thought abortion was the most important issue, according to AP/Votecast data They voted for Trump, 89-9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nprpolitics: NEW POLL: President Biden's approval rating has fallen to just 43%, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. The decline… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Depends on the estimate of course, but Biden might not have done any more than a point worse than Obama '08 among white men (and did better than Obama in one of those three states) https://t.co/jZBgzSJ9tA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ZekeJMiller: WASHINGTON (AP) — US jobless claims drop to 340,000, a pandemic low, evidence of strength for a rebounding economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nymetrowx: 4:55pm Radar: That's a wall of torrential rain moving into Northern NJ and the NYC Metro. Flooding is likely and dangerous f… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, the assumption couldn't be sustained. The Dems either never had/found that message, or Dems '06/Obama '08 did strike the balance and couldn't stick to it in office, didn't deliver enough growth, and ultimately found itself overtaken by the new-new left type anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether you think that convergence was a total illusion depends on whether you think of Trump era shifts more as a continuation of longer-term trends (just the latest in 70 yrs of D gains with col+, R w wwc) or a more fundamental departure from Clinton-Bush-Obama trend — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The book didn't exactly have the answer, as the quoted passage suggests. It did imagine that a 'progressive centrism' was possible, on the assumption that working class and professional values were converging in post-industrial metros https://t.co/bGn9AUK2gm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini I reminded John Judis of that at a TNR editorial meeting in 2012, and he had forgotten/didn't know lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The part of Emerging Democratic Majority that everyone--even including its authors--forgot: "The key for Democrats [...] will be in discovering strategy that retains support among the white working class, but also builds support among college-educated" https://t.co/hG1lAeo7VP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ElectionTask: The Electoral Count Act of 1887 is severely flawed and can no longer be relied upon to ensure a peaceful conclusion to pr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ezraklein: This is exactly right, and to be honest, it's a particular problem among Democrats, who're letting stringent COVID policies… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @pollhannes i didn't/don't disagree with that, so maybe to reframe in a way that more clearly clashes with your point: you're supposing that policy views are the DV, and i'm saying that whether you can appeal to someone *with* policy views — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin Perhaps “can expect” is more accurate than can — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin But it’s probably a shortcut to understanding whether you can motivate someone by adopting ideologically consistent policy views, which is the operationally relevant question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @splillo: Every NHC forecast for Ida. One might say they're pretty good at their jobs. https://t.co/aHhVvw2lHr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @abuttenheim: 2/ What did we find? Basically: nothing. Null results. Specifically: The 24 programs were associated with a (non-sig… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @US_FDA: You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y'all. Stop it. https://t.co/TWb75xYEY4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @powellnyt: A dispatch from America's culture wars, this time from a rarefied bubble. NY’s Elite Private Schools Tackle Whiteness and Pr… — PolitiTweet.org