Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The trendline for Democrats isn't as horrible as it looked a night or two ago in CA41... but they haven't been netting votes yet here, either. This is one of five or so races that might represent their 218th seat, if all else went perfectly. https://t.co/fXNMbivEhs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democratic strength in the late mail count out west also makes me think that maybe it's worth pausing a bit on assessing the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These relatively GOP late batches in Arizona just aren't coming through for Republicans https://t.co/9EVcwpcC9f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez is the winner in WA-3, according to our projections. It's the biggest upset of the House race so far, keeping the narrow Democratic path to retaining House control alive https://t.co/Ur7E3I0cmA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take CA22 (formerly CA21). Back in 2018, the AP actually called it for Valadao. But they were wrong; Dems won. The count in CA22 today is very early, but it's hard not to look at this broader pattern and think that CA22 isn't going to zooming left in the late count. How much? DK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The post-election mail vote in the west generally looks more like 2018 than 2020. You're seeing it most obviously in Arizona, where GOP hopes of strong batches simply aren't materializing, but it's true elsewhere. It creates real downside risk for the GOP in California. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems staying on track in WA03, a race that would be a big upset and yet now absolutely essential to keeping their path to a House majority alive https://t.co/JrCFpN603d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we take these trends seriously, then the Dem path looks something like this: Hold the 214 where they're ahead Flip CA13/AZ6 Flip CA22, which takes no stretch of the imaginable Flip... something else: luck in OR5/NY22? surge in long-shot CA27/CA45? maybe CA41 reverses? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we take these trends seriously, then the Dem path looks something like this: Hold the 214 where they're ahead Flip CA13/AZ6 Flip CA22, which takes no stretch of the imaginable Flip... something else: luck in OR5/NY19? surge in long-shot CA27/CA45? maybe CA41 reverses? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One place where the GOP seems to have fallen short, though, is WA3. They made big gains in the post election count, like in CO03. But they're running out of ballots and will need to overperform from here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Outside of California, things are a little better for the GOP. In general, late mail in white CDs has been going well for them. But Dems could flip AZ6, and... could really use OR5 somehow, too https://t.co/qvOpBN1jpr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The thing that keeps Democratic hopes alive is that they *are* gaining in the post-election vote in most districts. At the moment, just not by enough https://t.co/GIbewaOeJu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A look at how the late mail votes are breaking in the uncalled House races. So far, it's decent for Dems in California, but not enough to be favored to go ahead without additional strength https://t.co/FZxO3RKZUK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

every time I open twitter, it's showing me @RalstonReports and @Garrett_Archer tweets from 18 hours ago right at the top and giving me a heart attack — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KevinQ maybe we should just be writing this to a google sheet at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Smaller batch out Washoe than expected -- only 11k votes -- and not as overwhelming for Catherine Cortez Masto (D+10) as the last round, either. Half of Washoe still left, but Clark will probably have to carry CCM over the top -- and not tonight https://t.co/rrIPGOPqNn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Catherine Cortez Masto consistently winning the mail ballots in Nevada by a two-to-one margin, Democrats might just be one large Washoe County mail ballot drop away from holding the Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AlwenRovic @RainierTheFox he's already leading — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Mark Kelly wins the race for US Senate in Arizona, according to the AP. He won the latest batch of mail ballots by double-digits, even though it included election day dropoffs that Republicans were counting on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've been a little skeptical, given some of the post-eday trends in relatively white CDs like CO03 or CA03, but the Democrats held up tonight and they may just pull it off https://t.co/M5iTz4vVdR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, it belongs in the CA27/CA45 type bucket. It's much closer than the others, though the late ballots haven't been trending dem (yet) https://t.co/TyedvzOzXN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

sorry, meant CA22 not CA21. on the wrong decade's map still https://t.co/Z748eqhZdX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

GOP leads in 221 seats; Democrats need to flip at least four where the GOP leads The three likeliest targets, to me, seem like CA21, AZ06, CA13. After that... it's murkier. Lots of vote left in CA27 and CA45, but Dems not yet doing what they need https://t.co/Ynd5O9MsbW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Kelly has overperformed Biden in all six counties where the count has largely wrapped up (ie: where we've already seen this election day drop offs that we haven't yet seen Maricopa) https://t.co/eU59cATSs6 https://t.co/GFTxcJDtrh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My biennial post-election chat with @IChotiner on the midterms, polls, etc. https://t.co/w7XjkRWDPY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Typically, networks wait for something like a >.5 pt lead before making a call. If Washoe reports 20k that's 2-1 dem, that could do it (given the other outstanding vote) https://t.co/luzS5abGtx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're very close to resolution in the Senate, maybe even tonight. The House will be a slog, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

there are a lot of mail ballots left to count out west. they seem to be going well for democrats so far but they have some big gaps to close. we'll just have to wait and see https://t.co/gmskwSWeqb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

this is true https://t.co/cU60FcdAdk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it also helps explain a lot of the challenges of making sense of the data pre-election as well. With the national polarization in recent years, many of the 'good' Democratic results (our KS03 poll) looked unsustainable or like outliers against an R+3 environment. — PolitiTweet.org