Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias i agree with all of that. i'll just say that an argument for democrats to strive for decisive victory, given their disadvantages, may be intuitively a lot more reasonable than trying to eliminate 75% of educational polarization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias and as we've discussed this before, i don't really understand why you think the mean, expected democratic national vote in 2024 is like 50/50--which is the really core reason for your pessimism. biden did win 25 states, after all! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias seems like the more realistic path to avoiding that is a decisive victory with a certain amount of depolarization--which probably go hand in hand. i don't really see how you go back to winning ohio/iowa and losing georgia/arizona — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias it's fair to argue democrats should be attentive to less educated voters, or to lament what was lost between 12 and 16. but arguing for a 'dramatic reversal' of educational polarization seems kind of preposterous — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias is that a remotely plausible goal? a 'dramatically reversal' of educational polarization--over the next three years? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(i pulled this back up a few months ago, since it's kind of uncannily similar to the NYC mayoral primary) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Real Majority, oddly, opens with a 'riddle': who will win a big city mayoral race: a black tough-on-crime cop or a white liberal lawyer. The answer, ofc, is the black cop; the point is crime > race. But there are a lot of places where that answer has probably changed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And within large metro America, a tipping point has been reached: that 1970-era story doesn't really hold anymore. And since so many journalists, activists, etc., are in large metro America they do occasionally seem to need to be reminded about the rest of the country — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This, of course, is not nearly as true as it was in 1970. To some extent, the sense that 'popularism' is revisionist--despite being the conventional wisdom--reflects an Obama-era overreaction, when many seemed to conclude that demographic changes had been greater than they were — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm reminded of an influential book from 1970, "The Real Majority," which was very influential in the Nixon White House, centered around the idea that the median voter was an 'unpoor, unblack and unyoung' middle-aged, middle-class, midwestern white (wife in Dayton, specifically) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though even this non-trolly version of 50 year old conventional wisdom is 40 or 50 years old https://t.co/08nzDRvZo5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

clever https://t.co/ybNTPbDv7h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Bencjacobs It'll be curious to see how they make us switch from driving on the right to the left — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll be taking the NAFTA super-highway to London for my next roadtrip https://t.co/IyqAuTwpWf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BenjySarlin: The 2011 debate crisis was incredibly dangerous, but core issue was new Congress elected in a landslide on an austerity pl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @charlie_savage: Exclusive: House Democrats plan to introduce a package of proposed new limits on executive power today that amount to a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @brianneDMR: President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has fallen 12 percentage points since June, our latest Iowa Poll shows. Today he’… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To go from 42-11 to 49-3 (or whatever they want)? There are a lot of people in my replies who don't seem to understand what an IL/TX like gerrymander would look like in a Biden+29 state where Dems don't have a 'geography' disadvantage https://t.co/CwL80j8bS6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm half surprised there isn't a ballot initiative to end the nonpartisan redistricting commission for California's congressional elections https://t.co/dWrrldEEVN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rickhasen: I have written a new draft paper, https://t.co/zZxE9RT9Cs, "Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and S… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BenjySarlin: The best indicator that anti-vax sentiment is driven by ideology is the same group's constant obsession with treatments th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @sfcpoll @POLITICO_Steve interesting--maybe the polls with abc were RDD only, but these schor polls adopted this approach, unbeknownst to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i thought they were RDD-only or ABS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Re-reading the methodology, I misinterpreted the dedup initially—they’re still calling RDD respondents who have a number on the file as long as they’re not in the RBS frame. Reduces the risks—and benefit tbh—of the approach — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The risk I wonder about: do you wind up reversing non-coverage bias and bias the sample toward the non-covered population, even if only slightly, if you dedup and weight the RBS sample to the full partisan file, and don't have a party weight on the non-RBS component — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I could go down a 50 tweet rabbit hole thinking through whether this design holds up as a theoretical proposition. Maybe I'd decide it did by the end of the rabbit hole. I'm not going to, though, because I don't think (?) there's any material consequence. It's just odd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever the merits of that choice (most state telephone pollsters just go with RBS only), they try to blend the two samples in an odd way: they de-dupe the RDD frame, weight each to the full population, toss together (as oppose to voters with or without RBS coverage + p sltn) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most obviously, they've gone from pure RDD in 2020 to an RDD+RBS sample, presumably to gain some of the benefits of the voter file while preserving full coverage. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Washington Post poll in Virginia is a bit of an odd one, and a departure from their state polling in prior cycles https://t.co/amrmhXxviu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @VanceUlrich: With all in person votes now counted, the swing in Orange County's ethnic communities is even more stark. Majority-Vietna… — PolitiTweet.org