Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee i think if you take this and shor means-testing thing together, then you may have more work to do than you many have supposed. it betrays a fundamentally liberal, not social democratic, vision of welfare state responsibilities — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee i think if you buy the shor means-testing thing, then you may have more work to do than you many have supposed. it betrays a fundamentally liberal, not social democratic, vision of welfare state responsibilities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee you didn't say that. i'm just noting that there are longstanding reasons why we would expect there to be deeper public skepticism of this program than mere perceptions of scarcity — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee maybe that's true. idk. but depending on the answer, the kind of messaging you need is very different. and it's also possible it is not the policy option that balances positive effects and public popularity, as many people assumed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee i'm not tell you can't/shouldn't persuade anyone. but this conversation more-or-less supposes that this policy *ought* to be met with enthusiasm/support, that it's a little baffling that it's not, and therefore must be some fiscal issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee if anything, i'd think it's 'popularism 101' when you start assigning your mid-20th century readings on theories of why socialism didn't take root in america — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee and the notion that people 'want jobs/benefit, not handouts' is not exactly a new idea from the american working class? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee idk if it's true or not. what i do know is that i'm not surprised when working class voters aren't excited by a remedy proposed for them elites, whether neoliberal or dsa, since it's like the 1000th time it's happened — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee there's another possibility: support is being enhanced by the perception of an emergency in a pandemic, and aren't so sure it's appropriate to get free checks under ordinary circumstances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @EricLevitz @SeanMcElwee i'm just raising the obvious possibility that, perhaps, this kind of top-down vision is responsible for the spot you keep finding yourself in: elites earnestly conceive of policies 'for' the working class but are perpetually disappointed they're not winning elections on them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @EricLevitz @SeanMcElwee i'd be curious to hear a version of popularism tailored around figuring out what working class people want, and fighting for that, as opposed to trying to figure out how to make working class people like the things that excite progressive activists — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway I can't assess the likelihood of a 'coup.' But it would not take many nefarious actors to escalate the crisis to a very different place than it ever reached in 2020, and no one can be sure of how it would play out--especially if they concede politics favor nefarious acting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A successful state-level subversion event would flip the burden on Congress around, as well. Now you're counting on Congress to intervene on behalf of democracy--as opposed to merely acquiescing to a fait accompli — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a lot more credible than the oft-discussed scenario, where Republicans look at a certified, uncontested result and just decide to get it to the other side anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More importantly, refusal to certify would immediately become a plausible pretextual basis for a state legislature to intervene, or simply refuse to send electors, esp if the courts and election officials are playing badminton with the outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Realistically, the courts would eventually intervene--but it's not quite enough to be sure. The state laws are often very vague, and often don't have clear evidentiary standards. Litigation could take longer than the safe-harbor deadline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The refusal to certify an election on a pretextual basis could change the game as we saw it in 20. It would around flip the politics of the fight, by denying the winning party the appearance of what was their most important advantage in '20: the reality of an uncontested election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The certification step is where this sort of optimistic case on election subversion becomes too tenuous, as I think I've mentioned to @DouthatNYT before (can't find the thread) https://t.co/MI4CV2UvKC https://t.co/DOx9rL8Xjp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins https://t.co/wkwXJfdiuP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins https://t.co/1L8AZadLo1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i last looked at this back in the '16 gop primary, expecting it to be a predictor of trump support (you may recall it was a strong predictor variable for Nate Silver 1.0 back in the '08 dem primary). white no HS trumped it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins (and the geographic distribution ~ = the white south) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins whites without a high school degree was the strongest correlate for it when i was looking at this way back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @DouthatNYT paging @AlecMacGillis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 can pull it up later, but it looks like how you think it does — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @lionel_trolling: https://t.co/tH2NAnbUCH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann it's all very hard to remember now, but there was a lot of affluent white revulsion against bailouts, aca, etc. i remember meeting georgetown college freshman back in '09 who referenced 'state co.', as an off hand reference to tarp/aca/bailouts etc. one's a dem operative now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann my general recollection--and it would be fun to put together a pew/gallup dataset or something to address this conclusively--is that first term obama had some real struggles with high income whites and didn't see much education gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann not really iirc https://t.co/MO2rHpFSzS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @MattGrossmann don't have one, but i wrote it up in a pew poll in '13 https://t.co/4ERPFSdFOy — PolitiTweet.org