Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bykenarmstrong: Three police officers went to an *elementary* school in Tennessee & arrested four Black girls. One girl fell to her k… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: Ironically, before Pew just used the American Trends Panel for looking at these groups, @mhugolopez used to run Latino-speci… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanAncona you can see it for yourself in the results if you google the nyt precinct map, but this is probably the most compelling take https://t.co/bt2JuIDNAm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanAncona trump made large gains with latinos in florida--perhaps even a net-20+ pts--including just about everywhere in the state, like puerto rican communities around in orlando-kissimmee — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Given overall 2020 polling errors, we don't have much reason to be confident that we have a grip on low turnout voters right now. We don't know exactly why Trump surged with Latinos. It makes it harder for Democrats to craft a strategy today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clearly, pre-2016 data supported the assumption that a high turnout, mobilization election would be great for Democrats. It didn't turn out that way, as we all know. And it's not clear that holds going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the end, this is an example of how some serious data limitations / questions about the Democratic coalition post-2020 make it more difficult for the party to game out its future — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this voter file data useful is great for weighting and individual level targeting. But the story from aggregate voter file data, based on old measures of partisanship like registration, may yield a weird picture post-2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That interpretation yields weird things in other sections, as well. This has Coloradan whites leaning R, though Biden won them. They have Dems losing among ground white Pennsylvanians, bc of voter reg shifts, even tho Biden gained https://t.co/Tbh73G4vSa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is clearly based on pre-2020 voter file partisanship modeling, like party registration or primary vote history, without any effort to incorporate polling or results from 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take an obvious case, this report appears to think that Democrats made gains among Hispanic voters in most states--including Florida! https://t.co/HA1qAhXr0a — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Strange piece and report, perhaps reflecting some of the inconvenience of Trump's gains among nonwhite voters in a high turnout election. But I'd like to note some of the numbers in the report, which speak to real '20 data challenges https://t.co/TNCPHueKU2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYT_first_said: ooooooof — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ezraklein: I went long on @davidshor, popularism, whether Democrats are screwed in the Senate, the divisions in the Democratic data wor… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob ie: if we agree there wasn't much educational polarization among Hispanics in '16, and we agree that the swing in '20 was along educational lines, then wouldn't we agree that there's a new Hispanic education gap (size debatable, ofc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob I don't think there's a difference, *if* we agree on the state of the Hispanic vote by education in 2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob As far as I can tell, the data that doesn't show a swing along educational lines simply doesn't show a significant swing among Hispanic voters at all, which we've basically tossed out at this point based on ecological grounds and sufficient survey evidence to the contrary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i think that's broadly true, but let me ask a question that gets at why this may be a distinct case: what data shows a big shift among Hispanic voters on the front-end without it manifesting along educational lines? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: Hooray! The Upshot's 8th annual @NFL playoff simulator is now live. For a certain kind of football fan (you know who you are),… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT just out of curiosity, is your view of 2 mainly because he's nowhere close to the margins to amend the constitution or otherwise enact such an agenda, like orban, or because it wouldn't be a concern even if he did win a two-to-one victory — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm often wary of polling on hypotheticals and foreign affairs, let alone both, but the trendline is interesting https://t.co/yEjpWdltRQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JChengWSJ: A U.S. special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 this is also sensitive to the polling data, which remains sparse for 2020 right now (fewer polling organizations have uploaded microdata at this stage). nonetheless, the estimates are probably in the ballpark nationwide on dem vt share by race https://t.co/zw9kbqedSe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @SpecialPuppy1 some sensitivity to CPS shifts in black turnout in the south, which i have not scrutinized (and which may or… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 some sensitivity to CPS shifts in black turnout in the south, which i have not scrutinized (and which may or may not hold up to scrutiny) https://t.co/1btblKlSUG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @davidshor @mdasilva1563 @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @EricLevitz @SeanMcElwee @ewarren free labor/no feudalism, though i'll note that no horrifying world war devastation seems really underappreciated to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @HowardMortman: "Build back beaver, I say, build back beaver." -- Boris Johnson https://t.co/KGsXQv3f2p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann @EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee that's why democrats are always reminiscing about their big election win in 1966 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann @EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee oh definitely--i'd guess it will be hard to rollback, and if gop wants to run on that in '24 then perhaps by then there could be electoral dividends for democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee and if so, then pushing back on the fiscal issue would be missing the key issue entirely. you might still choose to support it anyway on policy grounds! but if you want to win elections on it, too... — PolitiTweet.org