Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Yamiche: .@realDonaldTrump says he had an "amazing interview" with Bishop Jackson. "I didn't know what I was getting myself into." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@NolteNC https://t.co/5FgmsjAcL3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Flooding of Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Already Begun. https://t.co/gao17gCuDi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is true insofar as the election hasn't yet happened https://t.co/QF7qB3U4uA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a big change from final L.D. poll in 2012: Obama 75, Romney 23 https://t.co/ONeR8zoL8C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you want to have fun, Google the folks who alleged Clinton was making up her concussion in Dec '12. Ex A: https://t.co/lFz49ZRXRU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChuckLane1 seems very familiar https://t.co/Y3OIeVmfT7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChuckLane1 didn't we know she basically didn't work in december 2012? couldn't testify on benghazi? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Yamiche: My latest: Leaked document shows Trump’s 1st campaign stop at a black church & his Q&A w/ a pastor will be scripted https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Challenge for figuring out the 2 v 4 way gap: it's driven by young voters, who are usually heavily weighted. Could add a lot of noise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Natl live interview polls (two way): Suffolk C+7, Fox C+6, Quinnipiac C+10, Monmouth C+7 (four way): Suffolk C+7, Fox C+2, Qp. C+7, Mon. C+8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dustopian tweeting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Clinton ever wants to do a press conference, tomorrow would seem like the day: Trump news, heading into holiday, far from election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @hillhulse: Sen Reid, definitely unplugged these days, tells me a Democratic Senate might have to nuke the filibuster next year. https:/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Fox poll has Clinton+2 in the 4 way, Clinton+6 in the two-way race (41-39; 48-42). Pretty big split. https://t.co/Wfq7MkLEvb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have a hunch we're going to forget about this trip about as quickly as it came together — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @netw3rk: so awkward when the bill for the wall comes out and no one reaches for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My sense is that this is going reasonably well for Trump, and it might not be going so well for Peña Nieto (but what do I know) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbarro: Is it? Seems to me like Peña Nieto was quite oblique. https://t.co/3xMrXG8iqH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The distribution of Clinton field offices is interesting https://t.co/kbvBQGBRmb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro i'm serious though. clearly there are reasons there's more uncertainty this year. how much? idk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro clearly, you can build a model to reach either conclusion! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro upshot model clearly thinks that a 5/6 pt clinton lead is pretty comfortable. 538 doesn't--thinks it's as weak as Obama+1.5-2 in '12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos it doesn't. it increases odds of blowout for clinton too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But I think there's as much art as science here in figuring out how much more uncertain in C+5 in nowcast today than O+1.6 on 8/31/12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, there are reasons it's more uncertain. Weaker fundamentals without inc. pres/approval; more undecided voters; the third party issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the key source of this is that the 2016 race has never been as *close* as 12. 538 prediction *peaked* at O+4.3 in Sept. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth thinking about this for a bit, because it's interesting https://t.co/Nm2QRRENpC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik they're not calling celllsssss — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Things I wonder about: does Trump actually have a path unless he gets numbers like this well under 50 https://t.co/NVAuweWmqC — PolitiTweet.org