Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And so on that note, I'll ask whether anyone has seen any information that speaks to this question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is *possible* that the Democrats can be good in Hunterdon, ok in Middlesex, crushed in Cape May and so on. I don't want to dismiss that possibility. But in the absence of better reporting, I think uneven vote by method is the likelier story — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's still a very inconsistent, mixed bag of results by county in New Jersey. It's rare to have such an uneven picture. And I do think the likeliest explanation is that there are a lot of places without all their mail ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If they had 150 counties like Virginia, we'd probably have more data points where the count looked done and get a good grip on what's going on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking elsewhere, there's a lot more 'bad' for Democrats than healthy. But it's hard to know whether that's because of biases in which kind of methods are reporting until we're at 100% counted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Hunterdon County result, for instance, looks totally healthy for Democrats and it looks done. I figured this wasn't going to be close when I saw it. Cape May County, otoh, looks nearly done and fantastic for the GOP. So it's hard to balance that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's hard to get a good grip on New Jersey, imo. Not only are we missing result by method, but there's not much consistency among the higher turnout, presumably nearly-done counties. There just aren't many data points in a state w 12 counties or whatever, esp if they're noisy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright, I'm going to take the dog out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And btw, if you're doing pundit things I'd look at that red column. McAuliffe fell short of expectations--a more-or-less uniform shift--by basically the same amount, just about everywhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I assume this is just boring at this point, but the race still isn't called so I will just note that Youngkin continues to be on track for that 2 pt win that he's been on track for since the 7:20 pm. https://t.co/8kIXUEJHNn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, the story to me is that an establishment Republican found a series of issues/messages that lets them mobilize the base without going full Trump or alienating moderates--and perhaps even with outright appeal to a mod/liberal-not-left vote https://t.co/EQHEzVh7o0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's where the vote is left to be counted, sized by expected vote margin (not total votes). McAuliffe still likely to close the gap and make this more like a 2 pt race than a 10 pt race https://t.co/knQ40Vzsue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Update with more than 1900 precincts counted, and excluding Fairfax early vote: Youngkin still with a clear advantage, running ahead of expectations across virtually all areas. The one place where he's a *hair* behind our projections: >80% white census tracts https://t.co/fQdJY3YqGL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Folks, this is all published, public information. The counties posted early vote tallies *before* the election. The votes they have reported so far tonight are plainly well short of what they said was coming in advance https://t.co/NA6LK4fwFg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, Youngkin's expected edge is at least twice that much, so it doesn't get McAuliffe back in it exactly even if it's quite significant numerically — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, they're at 50-86 percent of expectations, for each of their three CDs, compared to the pre-election number of reported in-person early votes. Might get them another net-40k votes than you'd estimate if you just assumed that vote was over. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking for data errors, I do think there is one possible bug that offers some good--if insufficient--news for McAuliffe: it does seem like Fairfax County is missing quite a few early votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth noting that the swing for early/absentee vote is much noisier than Election Day votes, as there are far fewer data points (one per county, v every precinct). Still, it opens the door to an even wider Youngkin victory than it had earlier seemed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One minor change: Youngkin is now overperforming pre-election expectations among advanced voters by as much or more than Election Day voters https://t.co/RAccslKx2W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well @Redistrict has seen enough, and it's not hard to see why. Though there's still a ton of early/mail vote to come in, and this is going to close up a lot https://t.co/Q0a50aEhgg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Big GOP gains, in other words, have materialized extremely evenly across the state. There's no big demographic shift underlying this. Just broad strength — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Update at nearly 1500 precincts: Youngkin is still on track for victory, running a ahead of what he needs across basically every dimension worth looking at. But it's worth noting just how close things are to 'expectations,' which is simply shifting the 2020 result to the right https://t.co/Mbe3pg7NFB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll draw attention to the 'if it were on the internet.' I didn't test and didn't make the guardrails to check against bad data/ errors, so I've been reluctant to share. But we've seen enough full county results to be sure this isn't just a mistake on my end — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Update at over 1300 precincts: Youngkin continues to be on track, running ahead of what he needs--even if only modestly--by just about any measure. He's a very big favorite at this point; needle might be getting into that 90% range if it was on the internet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

*aren't really any bright spots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Youngkin continues to have the advantage, now with over 1000 precincts counted. It's close. Maybe Youngkin's favored to win by 2 points. But there really any bright spots for McAuliffe at the moment. https://t.co/va5Zu0v34n — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not over. But we'd be talking about something like Youngkin+1.8 or so as the estimate, with p(victory) starting to get up there https://t.co/ZUpbQ5rzK5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout: on track for about 3.3 million, up from 2.6 million in 2017. Not a huge surprise anymore, given that we got updates throughout the day. But still a huge turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now at 888 precincts: picture unchanged. Youngkin still ever so slightly running ahead of his targets, including nearly everywhere in the state. If the needle was on the internet, it would be pointing his way https://t.co/s0V2I1uPtl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that I continue to see early/absentee vote posts that look better for McAuliffe, but aren't yet in the state data. I don't know if that erode this picture or not, but even the early/absentee vote reported so far by the state looks a little better for Youngkin — PolitiTweet.org