Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2021

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Wed Nov 03 00:51:58 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking for data errors, I do think there is one possible bug that offers some good--if insufficient--news for McAuliffe: it does seem like Fairfax County is missing quite a few early votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth noting that the swing for early/absentee vote is much noisier than Election Day votes, as there are far fewer data points (one per county, v every precinct). Still, it opens the door to an even wider Youngkin victory than it had earlier seemed — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, they're at 50-86 percent of expectations, for each of their three CDs, compared to the pre-election number of reported in-person early votes. Might get them another net-40k votes than you'd estimate if you just assumed that vote was over. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021