Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is extremely difficult for me to understand how states/localities can still proceed with multi-day election counts *and* not have high quality, transparent reporting on exactly what kind of votes have or have not been counted https://t.co/uQXdGLr6v8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SteveKornacki: The early vote was double-counted in Hudson County. It has now been fixed, bringing Murphy's total down by 10,732 and Ci… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Next time you need a reminder this site isn't based in reality, read the replies/QTs to this.👇 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be a little more exact, we had Biden at 63.2% of the advanced vote v. 59.6 for McAuliffe at the moment. So more like net-7 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, McAuliffe is at 60% of the advanced vote; as I said on Election Day, I feel pretty confident that Biden won 63% of those voters--so that's a net-6 pt swing on persuasion alone among a particularly partisan, highly-engaged, Dem leaning group of voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the turnout-v-persuasion front, it's worth looking at the advance vote since we know exactly which people voted early. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Had the Lakewood Vaad endorsed Ciattarelli (R) instead of Murphy (D), we could be looking at a very different #NJGOV race r… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias Let me tell you about the logit function — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier in the absence of serious evidence it makes a discernible difference... what if it doesn't? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yep, it's a lesson for Ted Cruz as much as some progressives. Both seem to really, earnestly believe that different voting rules would doom the GOP to permanent minority status and they'd never win power again. It's a little ridiculous https://t.co/MMwGOGhZ9C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though the NJ/VA results are also a reminder that HR1-like voting changes don't really do much to help Democrats. They certainly don't doom the Republicans in the way that so many people seem to hope (or fear!) https://t.co/2SMsTVBJ92 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini better than trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the alternative timeline, Rubio or whoever beats Clinton in 16, wins reelection in '20, but Democrats do have a great night last night and maybe they'll have 55 Senate seats heading into 2024, when they're favored to win the presidency — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can look at it in a number of ways: --he underperformed the fundamentals in both 2016 and 2020. --he ran behind Republicans in the US House in both 2016 and 2020 --his approval/favorability were always horrible; he probably couldn't have beaten someone other than Clinton — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, the narrative has often been about Trump's electoral invincibility but--that's a function of extraordinarily low expectations. There's plenty of reason to think he underperforms generic establishment Republicans https://t.co/GmJSpk1dmb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@larryameadows https://t.co/Sa5gKpvpre — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For that same reason, most of what you're looking at here is really the turnout/support *on election day* in black/latino precincts v. what we expected in a tied race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know it's kind of annoying to judge compared to some vague 'expectations,' but it's sort of necessary in Virginia, where all of the absentee/early vote is reported by county, while precincts are all Election Day precincts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It also seems like the turnout in majority Black and Hispanic precincts was relatively weak (see right hand column) https://t.co/5HcC6M1XXl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are only four precincts where Hispanics make up a majority in Virginia, but they did pretty notably underperform our baseline for a tied election--perhaps suggesting continuing, disproportionate Democratic weakness with the group https://t.co/raVXnmt6sx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The white education gap in the Virginia exits looks like a slightly more extreme version of national surveys, which show Biden holding his support among white college grads and tanking among those without a degree https://t.co/gG6uDOP1v9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Among the losers in Virginia: poll unskewers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do expect Youngkin's lead to shrink down back to the 2 pt range or so--maybe even 1.8 like I said many hours ago. Three remaining chunks of vote for Democrats: --late mail/provisionals --30k 'missing' Fairfax early votes --Everything else is Dem tilting too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's taken a while, but we have our first network call in Virginia https://t.co/fhE3ekctMy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not all the votes are counted, but at the moment Democrats are trailing by a wide margin--10 pts or more--in VA07 and VA02, two House districts that would be key battlegrounds (caveats on redistricting, ofc). McAuliffe did hold VA10. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I'm just going to toss out that the Fox News, Manchin, Sinema, and many of the other things in my replies are not particularly high on the list of explanations, even if they do not help — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden has nearly the worst approval ratings of any president on record at this stage of his presidency. Just something to keep in mind if you're struggling to understand what happened tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I do think we have to wonder whether and where that's happening elsewhere, since as far as I can tell there aren't many counties displaying this information — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For some context on effect, there are at least 40k mail votes in Bergen and they're 64-16 Dem by registration. So that would likely give Murphy a modest lead in at least that county, but maybe only a low-mid single digit one https://t.co/I4oKNmDhF1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

on cue, @ForecasterEnten tells me that at least Bergen County has no mail reporting there, so that's at least one case where things may be a little unrepresentative — PolitiTweet.org