Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@richardmskinner As I said, Republicans capitalized. Last time they didn’t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For Democrats, there's nothing inevitable about Biden having a 43% approval at this stage of his term. It's one of the lowest ever. For Republicans, there's nothing inevitable about capitalizing on low approval--McAuliffe won last time with Obama's approval at very similar levels — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Endorse. Obviously thermostatic public opinion is hugely important, but that doesn't mean you throw up your hands and think everything that went down was inevitable https://t.co/HLJljbNjoP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PieIsDamnGood i'll never gg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @notstevenwhite: Yes the milk thing is weird, but isn't it just obvious that swing voters don't spend a lot of time on Twitter thinking… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It should be noted that a drop in nonwhite turnout is typical in off year elections. Nonetheless, this is a bigger drop off than we projected given this level of turnout (see an earlier tweet) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But leaving the dropoff in Black/nonwhite turnout aside, turnout in Democratic precincts appears entirely healthy. So it's reasonable to assume white Democratic turnout was quite fine; probably not great differential partisan turnout dropoff among nonwhite voters https://t.co/elXmCfTgDm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This pattern seems to hold among all nonwhite voters. There are far fewer non-Black, non-white precincts in VA, so no nice scatterplot, but clearly turnout held much higher among white voters https://t.co/n9QFUYRB88 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In overwhelmingly Black precincts, turnout was just over half of 2020 levels. It was at about 75% of 2020 levels in areas with no Black voters. https://t.co/PJqDKoEWdX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For clarity, I've assigned the turnout among early voters to each precinct using voter file data, allowing for a direct comparison to 2020 turnout using vote history data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It will be a while until we have authoritative data on turnout in Virginia, but at the moment I think it's fair to say two things, judged against 2020: --Black/non-white turnout was weak for Democrats --Otherwise, Democratic turnout was probably fine — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @Taniel @chrislhayes we'll know when the voter file arrives for the election day vote, but in the meantime i see: -- *relatively* weak turnout among black voters, likely dropping as a share of the electorate --strong GOP/white working class turnout v. '17, but not clearly for 20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini i don't think there would be too much confusion about virginians voting against the president's party if they believed he had sent them to a desert island — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To the 'watch Youngkin' point: https://t.co/t7lcDfK4P3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a public group of liberal, Obama-era writers who now have entire brands built around distinguishing themselves from the left on race/culture. This is clearly potent stuff, and CRT is the first time it really got off Twitter — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I mentioned this in a thread about Hungary (lol) a few weeks ago, but if you're someone who basically lives on Twitter you can see it in your neighborhood simply by watching these silly Twitter debates over iconoclastic Substack accounts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And look, I was a HS debater--I get the instinct to simply say CRT is a legal theory, say nothing's there in public schools, etc. It would win some debates. But don't let that obscure how it's playing out in practice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside: watch some Youngkin. Obviously he's a Republican. It's *not* Obama '08. But there is that implicit aspiration to a postracial, colorblind society. It lets the GOP assert that it's the other side dividing by race. It's a big turn from the Trump era — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, many Republicans will instead emphasize outright conservative views that alienate more voters. I'd guess one might have lost VA. But for more moderate GOPers, CRT is a gift. They can bash the left and earn cred by merely sounding like... Obama '08 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The implication: it lets certain GOPers be relatively liberal on race. If CRT is raised to sufficient salience, GOPers don't have to rev up the base with outright conservative views--like anti-immigration or denial of police brutality--to polarize along racial attitudes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I said this to a few people on the phone so it may be worth adding publicly too: from the standpoint of electoral implications, one of the most important things about CRT (either IRL or caricature) is that it's a critique of liberalism from the left. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @lennybronner @gelliottmorris @rp_griffin @L2political lol well i would never offer any meatloaf recipe suggestions, but i do think it's at least worth looking at it with the DV on the logged odds scale if you're hypothesis is a shift among an already partisan group where within group support is correlated with the IV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lennybronner @gelliottmorris @rp_griffin @SeanTrende @L2political for a similar set of reasons, you can't really detect post-obama dem losses among black voters with this method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lennybronner @gelliottmorris @rp_griffin @SeanTrende @L2political I agree with the conclusions here, but idk if EI is especially helpful on this, since: --white nocol precincts are already so overwhelmingly GOP, so little room to shift --Dems do better among white nocol in precincts with more grads, so they can have more room to gain there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JohnAnzo @CivicScience @LoganDobson cc: @ForecasterEnten — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: On the turnout-v-persuasion front, it's worth looking at the advance vote since we know exactly which people voted early. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende it does seem to me that swings since '20 are less in latino areas though — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende do you have VBM by precinct here? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

McAuliffe is nearly 200,000 votes ahead of Northam's tally in 2017, despite likely d-->R defections. Murphy is already matching his 2017 tally--with many ballots left Something to keep in mind if you're thinking about last night in terms of deflated Democratic base — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has declined to 43%, with 53% saying they disapprove and 4% say they don’t know. H… — PolitiTweet.org