Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mike_clemmons meant IN-1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Electionpolls02 true — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in fairness to the GOP, it's worth noting that they have passed on some opportunities to bust Dem cities in red states, or at least haven't taken them yet. KY-3, NE-2, TN-5, IN-5, even GA-7 were/are all at least potentially on the table in August https://t.co/RirH2U6Oxy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But to the extent that the picture looks *vastly* different than it did in August, that's mainly because of a change in measurement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yes, the national House map is also poised to be more fair than last cycle, with the mean-median gap falling by about 2/3 over the districts I've processed so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, the bottom-line doesn't necessarily change: the old 'GOP take back the House with redistricting' story doesn't really hold-up, thanks to OR/NM and a few good for Dems but not necessarily surprising outcomes in a few other states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There have been some real surprises to the advantage of Democrats, at least from my POV. Oregon and New Mexico count. There hasn't really been an equivalent on the GOP side, though there's still time in a place like Tennessee — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see some of it play out on the great FiveThirtyEight page. Wow, looks great for Dems by PVI! But the Dems didn't gain three seats on this map https://t.co/NnNbA3LhiM https://t.co/MV30pGglmb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of the 'surprise' falls into this category. Take Texas: it actually was expected to be 13 Dem before! Go look at Wasserman's old tweets or something. But two contested but already Dem-held districts--the old 32/7--are now solid D, obscuring other GOP improvements — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before redistricting, most of the analysis was done in terms of that former measure--expected seat flips. Now that we have actual districts, most of the analysis is being done with the latter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take NV. It had a 3-1 Dem delegation in '20; it will have a 3-1 map in '21. No change, as expected before redistricting. But the districts got quite a bit stronger for Democrats. In '20, it was 3-1 to the right of the national vote, now it's 3-1 to the left. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this piece is broadly right, but a lot of what looks like a huge surprise in redistricting comes from two separate measures of the effect of redistricting: change in party control v. change in PVI https://t.co/qZvGhdyJ5M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

WA-08 https://t.co/vmEn0cG3Ra — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

good morning https://t.co/lG2239wumD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

yes, feel! voters don't think biden's accomplished anything, kept his promises, or say he's helped them personally. that may or may not be true, but it's how voters feel https://t.co/ufGtFDhTQx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsReid :( — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever the reason, the rescue package didn't really fulfill any big Democratic policy objectives, and it doesn't really feel like it made huge contributions to improving covid/economy (maybe it did! but I don't see many people arguing it, and conditions still aren't great) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't remember the backstory on why the CTC wasn't made permanent at that point, but that's an example of how it could have done more. Or maybe they could have gotten paid leave in there (framed as making sure people can take off work if they test positive) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The rescue package really stands out for me in that regard. Doesn't really feel like Biden/Democrats already spent $2tn in party line spending this year, does it? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think there's a lot to agree with here, especially if you're still optimistic about BBB's prospects. The better question is why it feels that Biden's accomplished so little https://t.co/WynCITAzG5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @IChotiner @albrgr @pbmehta certainly not if popular votes/parliamentary margins are any indication of democratic energy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @IChotiner @albrgr @pbmehta though i don't think it's very different in india v. the second world countries where populist authoritarianism has actually succeeded, like hungary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(a surprise christmas offensive that hits a weakness in our defenses, upends the hope that the enemy is already defeated, and yet falls far short of matching the earlier offensive on which it was modeled on and ultimately represents the last gasp of an enemy on the way to defeat) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

may omicron prove to be like the battle of the bulge, but for covid https://t.co/v5LoeBH0AL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Farzad_MD: 7/ There has undoubtedly been a bump up in Respiratory ED visits in NYC (it would be shocking if there weren't, in the midst… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @peterbakernyt: The US economy is booming, with a 7% annualized growth rate expected in the final quarter compared with 2% last quarter.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Srynerson @RyanDEnos great book — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @EricTopol: A/The big unknown for Omicron is the magnitude of reduction in illness severity compared with Delta and prior variants. The… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @greggiroux: U.S. population grew by just 0.1% in the year ended July 1, 2021, "the lowest rate since the nation's founding," per Census… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @noamscheiber: This is a fascinating development--the mine workers' union is urging Manchin to reverse his position on BBB. Up until ver… — PolitiTweet.org