Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini a random hypothesis: co-partisan elites in the UK have the option to replace embattled governments, often to their own gain; Americans do not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict otoh, it could easily be 11-4 by the end of the decade — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict granted this isn't 8-7 in '16, but i think you can do 8-7 in 20 without really anything terribly interesting. to each their own and all, but to me this is basically the 'natural' map https://t.co/ofPwDF8CIc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbalmert: BREAKING: Redistricting: Ohio Supreme Court strikes down congressional map, forcing another round of drawing https://t.co/DIM… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot https://t.co/3EcE9rXz0a — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot Not for the Sinema/Romney third party bid — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan perhaps, though idk i wouldn't totally discount the possibility that some idealistic wishful thinking can creep into 1 in 10 hill dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Manchin and Sinema predictably backing the filibuster, worth going back to this Punchbowl poll of staffers a month ago: 6% of congressional staffers thought FTVA would pass, including 0% of GOP staffers and 12% of Dems https://t.co/MRiD4paNbM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story's a bit different than BBB, but there is a key similarity: Manchin said he wouldn't do what key progressive constituencies demanded, Biden either felt like he had to push those demands anyway or thought Manchin might change, and ultimately has nothing to show for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So there's no filibuster rabbit for Biden to pull out of a hat. No surprise, of course. The only interesting question is whether any decision-maker actually believed there was a real chance it would go another way here https://t.co/iyCrQzSsfR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: MANCHIN just now on Sinema’s speech: “Very good. Excellent speech." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamgoldmanNYT: Oath Keepers Leader Arrested in Jan. 6 Investigation https://t.co/4Msd3579Hu w/@alanfeuer — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 i don't either, but i'm not sure they have another weapon in a 'see the light' strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So while there are obviously plenty of questions about the strategy itself, it's not immediately obvious to me whether their execution of it could have/should have been much different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if your strategy ultimately just involves hoping they eventually see the light, the timing around 1/6 and MLK day is about as much as you can ask — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

While other legislative strategies would benefit from being earlier in the cycle, when Biden's political capital was at its highest and before the issue was politicized, getting Manchinema to 'crack' probably did require a longer campaign — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There will be a lot of questions about whether there was another path if Congress doesn't pass voting rights. But given the path they did take (hope Manchinenma crack), I do think the timing and duration of the push--after 1/6 anniversary, around MLK day--seems pretty optimal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: Packing up things in the old office, I can assure you these will continue to have a place in the new one. https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@eisenbae @rickhasen @ElectProject those two things = terrible HS grades and financial need — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfTolson @jamalgreene @ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject and the hypotheticals cases be presented in very conservative-friendly terms. imagine if, in 1800, the NY state leg drew one LD around the largest 100 landholder homes, LD for the rest of the state. you can either try and let congress ban that, or have a civil war — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfTolson @jamalgreene @ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject you can frame the argument in originalist, madisonian terms. and the alternative to preserving this implied political question doctrine + congressional action interpretation of the GC is... federal military occupation of the states, reconstruction style? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfTolson @jamalgreene @ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject i think there are clever reasons why they *could* be inclined to do so under certain circumstances. thinking strictly from the standpoint of a conservative justice, the GC is a 'safer' basis for voting rights laws than an expansive interpretation of the reconstruction amendments — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @OHSupremeCourt: Maps for Ohio House and Senate districts must be re-drawn. The Supreme Court of Ohio ruled today that the maps do not m… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other end of the spectrum, there may be an emerging effort to reform the Electoral Count Act. It's still too early to say what this might accomplish; these efforts are in their infancy. But certification would still there, too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that there are some big changes since the summer, when the old FTPA really didn't do much on subversion. The FTVA includes a lot more to safeguard election officials, workers and the vote count. But certification is still left out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A year after the attack on the Capitol, the proposed voting rights legislation still wouldn't fully close off the paths that Trump tried to exploit to overturn the election https://t.co/44IuZE627H — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @cwarshaw: This is an awesome and important paper. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

lol folks this was a perfectly productive discussion. it's my job to push people if when they don't make sense to me or i think there are counterarguments worth addressing. i'm not a sternographer. and i'm happy @rickhasen offered his thoughts, always! https://t.co/nntsvXLtBV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jamalgreene @ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject agreed on all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jamalgreene @ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject might be remembering the orals wrong, been a while. but this is what's in the opinion. not really sure what else they could be referring to than thinking it could be appropriate for congressional action https://t.co/BEWXkRpZnN — PolitiTweet.org