Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CaseyMPrichard @chrislhayes @cd_hooks no, it's really quite simple. the results for federal office are highly correlated with the presidential result, but not downballot. not just in texas but all over. arizona too. maryland! many places. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CaseyMPrichard @chrislhayes @cd_hooks because they weren't running for federal office — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @cd_hooks trump's approval rating was worse in texas than georgia or florida or arizona or ohio than the exit poll. he was riding the wave — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TopherSpiro @chrislhayes at best, another fine example of circumstances favoring him. at worst, really another example of him squandering it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TopherSpiro @chrislhayes i mean i'd agree if he even done anything in this campaign? like kamala, booker, i mean even castro and gabbard have all had more moments in this campaign than beto — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TopherSpiro @chrislhayes yeah i mean i think he's above average. i don't think he's mediocre like an ossoff or a davis. but i do think that this guy's a presidential candidate because of circumstances, not him. if he had given a DNC speech in '16 or had run for Sen in MIN, he would have been forgotten. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dznyc yeah not very clear, but i'm saying that they became heroic figures for democrats ("it") for a time despite being thoroughly mediocre, due to circumstances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes or, to be clearer: i think that many of the things that made his campaign particularly well run were products of the circumstances more than the candidate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dznyc no, she was a below average candidate who still managed to generate hype out of far worse circumstances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes i disagree tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My view: Beto was an above avg Sen. candidate who emerged as a fairy-tale like hero to Democrats because of circumstance, not skill: he fought Ted Cruz, who Dems saw as a villain, for blue Texas, long their hope. It might have happened for many Dems, like a Wendy Davis or Ossoff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RonLPitts their second choices were: booker, buttigeig, biden. clearly a fan of Bs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Beto had 3 respondents in the Times/Siena Iowa poll today, matching John Delaney's tally — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: News: BETO is ending his presidential campaign He will not run for Senate, has no immediate plans to endorse "My servic… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @alexburnsNYT i believe we're 86% white, including DKs in the denominator — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @alexburnsNYT there are some in the tabs on age/gender/education what do you want to know — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(in competitive states, to be sure) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have Trump approval at 89-10 among Republicans over 1451 interviews with Republicans over the last few weeks https://t.co/bsLBhJ9zzK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @DKarol @JakeMGrumbach @smotus 25% of iowa dems want both — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Everyone got to hear all the candidates and Beto got 3 respondents. So did John Delaney https://t.co/Foa6O4RGTd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT Methodology here. As an aside, even w/a big Dem oversample we still needed 1400 completes to get up to 400 in the caucus. IDK about some of these polls going from a random sample of 850 to a Dem caucus poll... https://t.co/AddtBbNYzl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in general, I’d say the rise of Pete is pretty good news for him. That’s not coming out of Bernie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of focus on Warren/Biden/Buttigeig in my replies, but don't overlook Bernie here. He's right in it in both IA/NH, his base of support is very solid in our poll, and he has a pulse among nonwhite voters in national polls, which is more than some other folks can say — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take your pick https://t.co/GZfATILbgO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I had totally forgotten about this dimension of the poll https://t.co/14A3hqQJeD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @alexburnsNYT we used our standard 'how likely are you to vote' question, and the probability was derived from validated turnout on prior Times/Siena polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT The implied turnout is appx 270k, 100k higher than 2016. Over the coming weeks, I'll look at whether those choices mattered. At a glance, I'd guess either alternative--excluding semi-likely voters, or incorporating stated past caucus vote--would have hurt Biden even more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT This differs a bit from others in modest ways: --unlike other polls, we're not totally cutting out folks who don't say 'almost certain' or 'very likely' to caucus on the second question. --unlike our other polls, we have no turnout model, since we don't have past caucus data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT This is our first dip into the task of identifying the Iowa caucus electorate, and we: --screened to people who said they'd probably vote in dem caucus > probably vote GOP caucus or not caucus at all --applied a probability of voting, based how likely they said they were to vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT That said, Iowa Dems do narrowly prefer someone who they agree with on the issues > someone who would win, unlike most other polling. And by a wider margin they prefer a candidate who promises fundamental, structural change to America > a return to normal politics in Washington. — PolitiTweet.org