Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 2, 2020

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Fri Nov 01 12:41:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT This is our first dip into the task of identifying the Iowa caucus electorate, and we: --screened to people who said they'd probably vote in dem caucus > probably vote GOP caucus or not caucus at all --applied a probability of voting, based how likely they said they were to vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT That said, Iowa Dems do narrowly prefer someone who they agree with on the issues > someone who would win, unlike most other polling. And by a wider margin they prefer a candidate who promises fundamental, structural change to America > a return to normal politics in Washington. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT This differs a bit from others in modest ways: --unlike other polls, we're not totally cutting out folks who don't say 'almost certain' or 'very likely' to caucus on the second question. --unlike our other polls, we have no turnout model, since we don't have past caucus data — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2019 Hibernated