Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @katieglueck If I had to guess, I'd say the 'closed' states should be better for Biden, since that yields an older and less educated electorate. But it's hard to see much evidence for it here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @katieglueck Unlike the national polls (and many state polls), we surveyed the relevant Democratic primary universe in these states (reg. Dems in AZ/PA/FL, anyone who wants in WI/MI, reg. Dems + una in NC) More undecided in closed states, but otherwise doesn't seem like it made a difference — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads by a margin nearly identical to national polls across the six closest states carried by the president. Biden 27 Warren 19 Sanders 16 He leads in Fla, Mich, Penn, Ariz and NC, but trails Warren in Wisc @jmartNYT/@katieglueck with the story >> https://t.co/voJsGSwpZz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And now we may have our Fred Thompson — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: BLOOMBERG is filing to run for president https://t.co/ii6si47Cuo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @thomaskaplan: How much would Elizabeth Warren's plans cost? We did the math: https://t.co/1o20a7quYa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @CarrollDoherty: Profile of nonvoters in 2016, based on voting records. When asked who they *would have* voted for, 37% said Clinton, 30… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @ElectProject @blfraga @liamerivaki i don't think I would have published if the same patterns weren't evident in RDD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The sample is very similar demographically, conducted over the same period, and there are some methodological similarities (though a few very large differences as well). Would be interesting to do a deeper comparison, maybe even AAPOR worthy @AshleyKirzinger — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An interesting comparison https://t.co/LeGFbpppGK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I meant: Nonvoting Democrats do not look vastly more progressive than those who vote*, either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last summer, we compiled thousands of nonregistrants from national surveys. The same patterns held here, with Democrats excelling among nonvoting Latino voters but struggling to match their success among unregistered young or black voters https://t.co/R2JK1a2Ri9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, none this accounts for another group of voters: people who aren't registered at all. Millions of newly eligible voters will register over the next year. But over all, our previous analysis of these voters shows the same pattern. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the president's nonvoters are just as likely as Democratic nonvoters to say they'll turn out in 2020, unlike our polling from 2018 and suggesting that the president would remain competitive in a high turnout election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the president's nonvoters are just as likely as voters to say they'll turn out in 2020, unlike our polling from 2018 and suggesting that the president would remain competitive in a high turnout election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonvoting Democrats do not look vastly more progressive than those who stay home, either. If anything, they seem more moderate--especially on cultural issues. That said, Sanders has the best support and ratings with this group and Warren is worst. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Black nonvoters, in contrast, are a somewhat startling challenge for Democrats. Biden, for ex, only leads among black nonvoters by a 59-19 margin, even has he leads among black voters, 89-6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our results do offer some good news for Democrats among nonvoting Hispanic voters, who back the Democratic candidates by huge margins and could propel the party forward in Arizona or perhaps even Texas But outside of Arizona, Democrats are deadlocked with nonvoters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The results are consistent with an analysis of national polling of unregistered voters and Times/Siena '18 data over the summer https://t.co/RoIMrjcfOn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonvoters do not seem poised to save the Democrats in the six key battleground states, based on an analysis of more than 600 nonvoters in our Times/Siena polls. Despite their demographics, they are not much likelier to back Democrats than voters https://t.co/EQWGsvEsKw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende agree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

in all seriousness though, the handful of you that get to talk to me IRL know that I've been pretty intrigued by this general scenario unfolding — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i think all fits well enough that we can say the race is basically settled — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I suppose we could also cast Buttigeig as Mike Huckabee's exact-opposite-and-yet-dem-equivalent, to play the role of blocking Romney/Warren in Iowa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if we really got the full '08 redux, I suppose you can slot fellow Mass. candidate Warren into the Romney slot and cast the sagging but now recovering former runner-up Bernie as McCain https://t.co/lmdntgY7UO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems are going to get what they want out of the metros it seems. They've got a lot left coming their way. But south/west Kentucky is going to counter that to some extent. Sure seems like it'll come down to the exact margins/turnout, and we'll have to wait — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Those Dem gains in the metro areas are holding, even as the count progresses. I remain very interested — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as more rural areas tick up to 100%, there are some pockets of relative Beshear strength out there as well. It'll be a while--I might even go home and reposition to my couch, since this isn't going to be resolved in the interim — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd say Bevin was doing what he needs if I was looking at completed rural areas. But some of the early urban/suburban numbers--admittedly incomplete--do keep me interested. The GOP margin in Boone is cut in half right now w/50 precincts in — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well it's still early in Kentucky. Broadly speaking, it seems like a race. But--and you've heard this a lot by now--the urban-rural split out there makes it a little tough to digest. — PolitiTweet.org