Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Emerson hardly my favorite poll, but the Warren-Buttigieg war benefiting Sanders-Biden-Klobuchar would be entirely unsurprising https://t.co/JZgxFijIWk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DCclone @mattyglesias well it was in the 18 polling, and i personally don't think it's a huge surprise if you think the demographic trends of recent years--more relative GOP strength with white working class, more Dem strength in well-educated areas--has continued, which would grow the EC-PV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias now, just because i have theories doesn't mean it's true. we could just be straight wrong, biden's up 10 in all the swing states, etc. but i don't think it would be i wouldn't be surprised if it all could be easily reconciled, either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias now just bc i have theories doesn't mean it's true. biden could be up 10 in all these states and we're just wrong. but, at the same time, i don't think it's hard to see how it all comes pretty close to lining up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i'd offer three theories that can help 'square it': a bit of noise, perhaps especially in MI (where we had a small and bad sample); there's evidence the EC-PV gap widened in '18, as we wrote about; there's evidence the EC-PV gap widens among RVs, not LVs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias idk. the seven states we polled were 5 pts right of the US in '16. so if you take this Q poll, you'd expect biden+4. our result was biden+2. a 2 pt gap isn't nothing, but i wouldn't say 'very hard to square' category — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Scooterstation @BernieSanders i think that's an open question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Red exodus: when Trump was inaugurated in 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House. Since then, 104 of them (43%) have… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This article largely lays it out my view of how the Dem race may evolve from here. DK if Sanders has the appeal to take advantage of the opening, but this is about as good of a shot as he can hope for IMO https://t.co/GgikKB0CtG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've been telling many people on backchannel that the Sanders opening has arrived, so I will take credit for this wave of takes should it materialize https://t.co/52VZAKZjeX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult you're not making a statistical argument? you're asserting, in contradiction of evidence, that name ID explains her weakness in the poll. and you're asserting, without evidence, that she's not well known enough to evaluate her standing, even among those who have an opinion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult yes, you're making a generic, theoretical argument and using it to cast doubt on specific findings where the theoretical case turns out not to be particularly applicable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult among the voters who have a view of both warren and biden, warren runs a net-3.4 points behind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult among undecided voters on the generic ballot who know both biden/warren, her rating is a net-30 points worse than biden. among voters who support biden but not warren, she has a minus-20 whatever rating and a majority say she's too far to the left. you have to grapple with this — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult no, you didn't look at the underlying data. you don't have it, and respectfully i've shown you considerable amounts of it here and in the pieces. while it may be inconvenient there comes a point when you have to reconcile the theoretical argument with the actual results — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult it could. it doesn't; we have the data to evaluate this question, and i have introduced some of it here and others in other pieces. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten you're on board — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult anyway it is quite easy to control for, as i did in the article. here is a different way: respondents with an opinion of both warren and biden as you can see, warren is better liked among reliable democrats, like monmouth. it is a very different story among persuadable voters https://t.co/uNWVxMx1j5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @MorningConsult that's a fairly high number, probably in part because it's a listed option in an online poll. in this monmouth poll, it's just 10% among all voters. in our poll it was 12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer very easy to control for it, at least when you're at 90% name ID like Warren — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer warren was the most popular among solid dem voters in our poll, as well. but persuadable voters don't like her (not merely that they don't know who she is, though yes there are a few more voters in that category) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer warren is the least popular. she has a 50% unfav rating — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see what the Monmouth approval numbers say when they come out. My guess is they'll be pretty good for Trump, given that his fav/unfav is 46/52 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump's approval has basically returned to the long-term normal in FiveThirtyEight, at 43/52, after a post-inquiry drop https://t.co/85ZK8iNafA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@N_J____ 46 - 52 = -6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I overlook fav/unfav sometimes, but Trump narrowly squeaking out the best net-favorability rating of the major contenders, at 46-52, is interesting https://t.co/0Svg9jqW8x — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over it is. $$ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems like the line would be 3.5 or 4. I'd probably take the 'over' given the amount of advertising, but who knows — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the line for Bloomberg in tomorrow's Monmouth poll is at 4.5 are you taking the over or the under? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the line for Bloomberg in tomorrow's Monmouth poll is at 3.5 are you taking the over or the under? — PolitiTweet.org