Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 18, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 21:16:42 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i'd offer three theories that can help 'square it': a bit of noise, perhaps especially in MI (where we had a small and bad sample); there's evidence the EC-PV gap widened in '18, as we wrote about; there's evidence the EC-PV gap widens among RVs, not LVs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias idk. the seven states we polled were 5 pts right of the US in '16. so if you take this Q poll, you'd expect biden+4. our result was biden+2. a 2 pt gap isn't nothing, but i wouldn't say 'very hard to square' category — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias now just bc i have theories doesn't mean it's true. biden could be up 10 in all these states and we're just wrong. but, at the same time, i don't think it's hard to see how it all comes pretty close to lining up — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated