Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To borrow from @ForecasterEnten though, it is fair to wonder whether this is a week too soon. Sanders' biggest advantage to this point has been avoiding the kind of scrutiny and treatment of being a frontrunner, and you can already sense it beginning this week — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Monmouth trend strikes me as particularly significant, given that they were in the field earlier this month. So that's decent reason to believe Sanders has continued upward over a fairly short time period, not just since November — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Monmouth trend strikes me as particularly significant, given that they were in the field earlier this month. So that's decent reason to believe Sanders has continued upward over a fairly short time period, not just since last year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The various Iowa pollsters have big, persistent House Effects, largely depending on whether they sample the whole RV universe or not. All, however, have one thing in common: a pro-Sanders trendline, including in the Monmouth poll out this morning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: In our poll, the entirety of Sanders' lead comes from the 18% of people who passed the screen without meeting those conditio… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: IOWA DEM CAUCUS POLL: #2020Dem preference: 1st choice (1st+2nd combined) 23% (39) @JoeBiden 21% (32) @BernieSanders 16% (… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is one of those cases where it's easy to imagine how the 'average' could actually be a reasonable way to split… https://t.co/JVSiJ9UKhA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A reason this is so hard is because we don't have the data we're used to having on the vote history of respondents.… https://t.co/ybqxRxmWbf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of which is to say: the fact that these people didn't vote in '18 doesn't prove they won't vote; the fact that… https://t.co/eqOU1Yl3pK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These voters are included in our poll for one very simple reason: they said they were going to caucus. They might not do so, and the fact that they didn't vote in 2018 is a fair reason to doubt them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But even those who are old are much more liberal, here the result among those over age 45 depending on whether they… https://t.co/Q018iGkpaP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These voters are overwhelmingly young--61% under age 34, compared to 24% in the monmouth universe https://t.co/PztSwV4z5y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our poll, the entirety of Sanders' lead comes from the 18% of people who passed the screen without meeting those conditions. Or put differently, if our polls were otherwise identical, I'd guess a Monmouth poll result would be the 'Monmouth' column here https://t.co/3t1IHVx7s9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the Monmouth poll coming out tomorrow, it might be fun to do a deep dive on a major difference between the two… https://t.co/F53fg9bwz8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW – IOWA: Our final #2020Dem poll of likely Hawkeye State caucusgoers on the Democratic presidential field.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yes, a majority of the dots are in those deep clusters, where Buttigieg (pink) is doing worst. He did win rural… https://t.co/F3I7vQAvxQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few nights ago, I tweeted out this screenshot of our Iowa poll. I enjoyed your guesses! The truth: Biden black (1st in dots, tho not our poll bc of LV screen) Sanders green (2) DK blue (3 in dots, mostly not LVs) Buttigieg pink (4th; did poorly in metros) Warren red (5) https://t.co/nheKJmfh7k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: Rick Scott for Senate has placed a Fox News-only cable buy in the Des Moines, IA market. 1/31-2/3 flight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sanders seems like a high variance candidate to me, with obvious upside and downside. Trump feelings are strong enough to constrain the variance to some extent, and it's hard to predict how two forces interact for good measure https://t.co/zahmjL0gXd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: Big moves this month! Biden support drops 11 points, Sanders is back 3 nationally, and Bloomberg is at 13%. We find B… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needle was a spectacular success and it will not be sitting out (cue ominous thunder) https://t.co/m4asggL2d6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @kwcollins yeah, and if I didn't say so, Biden leads all who say they haven't caucused before, even as Sanders leads among t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins yeah, and if I didn't say so, Biden leads all who say they haven't caucused before, even as Sanders lead… https://t.co/MwMQPDyZ2y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins oh, sanders 28, biden 19 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins we have sanders ahead among self-reported past dem caucus goers by a 4 pt margin over biden, 23-19 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The bottom-line is that our poll found more than enough people who support Joe Biden for him to win and to explain why he leads other polls. But these Biden supporters, despite often being fairly regular voters, just didn't say they would caucus. It's that simple. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our poll, the voters who say they'll caucus look nothing like the voters who have ever told us they'll vote in our prior 100 Times/Siena surveys https://t.co/GntQUx5eqN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All this yields a big split in the polls, since the polls themselves split on their dependence on prior vote history to either craft the universe or voters who can participate in a survey or determine the likelihood of a respondent to caucus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden, on the other hand, led our poll among the Democrats who said they wouldn't caucus https://t.co/htpt7PDKOx https://t.co/NrtBXUM8lu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why there's such a big split in Iowa polls: Sanders leads among voters who *say* they've caucused before or will in… https://t.co/BhokidnsnA — PolitiTweet.org