Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross and i can also tell you that, as imperfect as self-reported turnout intention is, it does usually anticipate old turnout > young turnout, which is not so here https://t.co/r8RtaXA7bj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross not that i've got. i can tell that the people who *tell*… https://t.co/6xY87EvyhO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross in the times/siena data, it mainly seems like the latter. controlling for our pre-election turnout scores / vote history, young voters are only very marginally less likely to overreport intention to vote v. validation (while we have a similar result w/o control) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross the question is whether the pattern is bc young voters are likelier to lie, or bc they have a lower underlying turnout probability in regularly scheduled elections. if it's the former, it's a problem for our poll. if it's the latter, then it begs the question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A seeming outlier here but Klobuchar is over 10% in 7 consecutive polls, at least read in descending order on FiveThirtyEight https://t.co/troAA6SB4J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a ton of info on method https://t.co/6MatvBC9in — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Inbox: new Park Street Strategies poll of Iowa finds... Biden 20 Sanders 18 Buttigieg 17 Warren 17 Klobuchar 12 Yang 5 Steyer 4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject now that warren's faded, i think that's right. but warren was so strongly correlated w education/dens… https://t.co/EQBd5sQDBQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what that looked like. Warren winning first alignment in our Oct. poll... in blue. https://t.co/dKWt51XGtI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When I simulated the result by precinct in our October poll, though, Warren lost like 3 pts between final alignment… https://t.co/OnzQwip17F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Warren falling pretty far back and the other candidates having the ability to compete in rural areas, it's not clear whether this is poised to make a huge difference--though it could (would be great for Pete in our poll). https://t.co/b0PY2wzAAa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, it is a great poll https://t.co/FoUH5dpBuJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @xenocryptsite @PollsterPatrick i didn't say it would be good! but i do think most would use the data in… https://t.co/x9CFoqkGSU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @PollsterPatrick @davidshor i'd think so. they'd probably have more similar electorates, informed by… https://t.co/DUpYTr3Ty0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @PollsterPatrick right. It’s run by the party not the state. Dem campaign files should have it tho — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsterPatrick So I think the Monmouth approach here--that the key question is what proportion of voters are typically 'irregular', rather than the size of turnout--is the right framing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsterPatrick If you take the former view, then Biden needs a 'high' turnout that draws voters who don't usually caucus and aren't intending to. If you take the latter view, then it's Sanders who needs a 'high' turnout to draw voters who don't usually vote in primaries etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsterPatrick I did not reach a firm conclusion about whether 'high' or 'low' turnout was good or bad for in our poll. It just begs the question of who the likeliest voters really are: those who say they've caucused before and will again, or those have regularly voted in regular elections? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interesting, from @PollsterPatrick's Monmouth Poll release https://t.co/udf2Zp6s2p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @HSHartig: One of the great things about our panel data is that you can track preferences among the same respondents over time Who are… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi would watch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i'll only tune into the CNN Selzer poll special if they release the results respondent by respondent over the course of the full hour — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @tripgabriel: Is Biden headed toward a lower-than-expected finish in Iowa bc of gaps in his ground game? My reporting on the often-igno… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Could happen. The end of these caucus races can be dynamic for exactly this sort of reason https://t.co/uulLfSoNYV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing about the Iowa polls is that Pete doesn't lead any of them, despite not being far behind, whi… https://t.co/jc2bf3fh7g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten And remember, the winner will be the candidate with the most state delegates (after realignment), not the candidate with the most support at first. So Sanders could, hypothetically, lead these polls and first alignment, but lose out later if Warren is strong and Klob isn't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten The Warren-Klobuchar balance, FWIW, is one of the best reasons to think Sanders could lose out on second-alignment/SDEs, despite leading these polls. But if Warren keeps falling and Klobuchar gains, that could flip fairly quickly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten OTOH, it strikes me as equally or perhaps more important that none of Sanders' rivals seem to have any kind of positive momentum at this point. And if it's anyone, perhaps it's Klobuchar--who is farthest behind and who Sanders' rivals are counting on for 2nd choices — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten OTOH, it strikes me as equally or perhaps more important none of Sanders' rivals seem to have any kind of positive momentum at this point. If it's anyone, perhaps it's Klobuchar--who is farthest behind and who Sanders' rivals are counting on for 2nd choices — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten OTOH, it strikes me as equally or perhaps more important that it's not none of Sanders' rivals seem to have any kind of positive momentum at this point. And if it's anyone, perhaps it's Klobuchar--who is farthest behind and who Sanders' rivals are counting on for 2nd choices — PolitiTweet.org